Race Ratings Changes:
• MI-Sen (Likely D to Safe D): While Donald Trump of course won Michigan by the narrowest of margins in 2016, Republicans are faring poorly there this year at all levels, and national groups seem to have little appetite for taking on veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow. While the GOP wound up with a more-interesting-than-usual candidate in Iraq veteran John James, who'd be the state's first black senator, he very much has his work cut out for him. James has trailed Stabenow by double digits in every poll, with Stabenow often ahead by 20 points and usually over the 50 percent mark. This race is simply out of the GOP's grasp.
• OH-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): Republicans have an enviable Senate map this year, but with all of those juicy targets, they've apparently left Ohio out of their master plan. Polls from reputable outfits have generally shown Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown well ahead, often by double digits, and outside Republican groups have made little move to help Republican Rep. Jim Renacci. While Renacci could make up the difference with his personal wealth, so far, he hasn't: A recent analysis showed that Brown has accounted for 96 percent of ad spending in the race so far.
• KS-Gov (Likely Republican to Lean Republican): While Kansas Democrats had good reason to worry that wealthy businessman Greg Orman's independent candidacy would hurt them more than Republicans in this fall's race for governor (indeed, they tried to knock him off the ballot), Republican Kris Kobach's own deep flaws have prevented him from consolidating the GOP vote. That problem was highlighted on Friday when 27 current and former Republican officials, including a state Senate president and a lieutenant governor, all endorsed Democrat Laura Kelly.
Limited polling has shown Kelly and Kobach in a dead heat, with Orman taking around 10 percent of the vote. Given how red Kansas is, that means Kobach still has the advantage. But even with Orman sticking around, the Republican brand is badly tainted in the Sunflower State (thanks, Sam Brownback!), and Kobach is going to have to sweat.
• IL-06, MN-03 (Lean R to Tossup): Illinois' 6th and Minnesota's 3rd are both affluent, well-educated suburban districts with a history of voting for Republicans downballot but an antipathy toward Donald Trump. That's causing tremendous difficulty for the GOP incumbents in each seat, Peter Roskam and Erik Paulsen, respectively, despite the pains they've taken to distance themselves from their party brand over the years.
Both men also face strong Democratic challengers in Sean Casten (running against Roskam) and Dean Phillips (taking on Paulsen). After 2016, everyone wondered whether these kinds of seats, which moved in the Democratic direction that year, would revert to form or continue to prefer Democrats. All available evidence indicates the latter, and that puts these two districts square in the heart of the 2018 playing field.