Leading Off
● Phoenix, AZ Mayor, AZ-Sen: On Tuesday, Kate Gallego easily defeated fellow Democrat Daniel Valenzuela by a wide 58-42 margin to become Phoenix's new mayor, making her just the second woman ever elected to the post. And with Gallego's victory, two of America's five largest cities will soon be led by women following next month's runoff in Chicago, which features a faceoff between two women, Lori Lightfoot and Toni Preckwinkle.
Campaign Action
Gallego won a special election runoff for the rest of former Mayor Greg Stanton's term after Stanton resigned to successfully run for the House in 2018. Gallego had led Valenzuela 45-26 in the first round all the way back in November, so her victory doesn't come as a surprise. She'll face the voters again for the full four-year term in November of 2020.
The two Democrats were both former members of the City Council and had similar voting records, but they differed when it came to public financing of sports facilities. The issue sparked great controversy in the city, particularly after the city council committed $150 million to renovate the arena where the NBA's Phoenix Suns play in January—well after both Gallego and Valenzuela had resigned from the Council to run for mayor.
Valenzuela supported the deal, and he also helped broker a previous agreement that kept the Milwaukee Brewers' spring training facility in the city, which the Arizona Republic's Jessica Boehm described as "one of the most taxpayer-friendly in Arizona professional sports deals." Polling, however, showed the Suns' deal was deeply unpopular, and Gallego had opposed the arrangements with both teams, arguing that city resources should not go to supporting sports teams.
Gallego is also the former wife of current Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who was strongly in support of her candidacy. The congressman has long been weighing a potential Senate bid for 2020, but he had reportedly been unlikely to announce whether he would run before the mayoral race was over. Gallego himself told the Intercept he would decide by the end of this month, so we may be getting an announcement soon.
Senate
● GA-Sen: Shortly after announcing that a 2020 presidential run was "on the table," Democrat Stacey Abrams reiterated that she'll decide in April what office she will run for next year, if any.
● NH-Sen: Republican Gov. Chris Sununu was once again asked whether he would rule out challenging Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen next year, and he again refused to close the door, saying, "I don't rule anything out." Sununu had said back in 2017, before he won re-election last year, that he would "never run for the U.S. Senate," so his change of course is worth watching. New Hampshire Republicans don't have any other obvious contenders to challenge Shaheen after 2018's wave, so the popular Sununu would likely be by far the strongest candidate the GOP has who could take her on.
● TX-Sen: CNN reports that an unnamed source close to former Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke says the congressman is set to announce he's running for president this week amid other reports that O'Rourke is planning to travel to Iowa. Consequently, those who had hoped O'Rourke would run for Senate against Republican incumbent John Cornyn in 2020 after his impressively close 2018 loss to Sen. Ted Cruz may soon be disappointed.
Gubernatorial
● IN-Gov: Former Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly will be joining the lobbying and law firm Akin Gump as a partner starting next month. Donnelly recently didn't rule out running for governor against GOP incumbent Eric Holcomb in 2020, but he showed little interest in the idea, and this latest move suggests he's not angling for a comeback next year following his 2018 re-election defeat.
House
● CA-49: Former San Clemente City Councilor Steve Knoblock has filed paperwork to run against Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, although he hasn't said anything publicly about whether he's actually mounting a campaign or is simply considering one. So far, San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott is the only Republican actively in the race.
● CA-50: Former GOP state Sen. Joel Anderson, who represented much of this inland San Diego County district in the state Senate until he was term-limited in 2018, declared on Tuesday that he wouldn't challenge scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter and supports the indicted congressman "100 percent."
● IL-14: Army veteran Anthony Catella is the latest Republican to jump into the primary to take on first-term Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood. Catella touted his experience as an election judge and a precinct committeeman, so he may have some connections in the local GOP. Meanwhile, state Rep. Allen Skillicorn recently confirmed he's seriously considering a campaign. In addition to Catella, the current field includes state Sen. Jim Oberweis and Navy veteran Matt Quigley.
● ME-02: Rep. Jared Golden is likely the most vulnerable New England Democrat in the House, and Roll Call has a few names of Republicans who could run against him, mentioning former state Sens. Eric Brakey and Nichi Farnham. Brakey was Team Red's 2018 Senate nominee against Democratic-aligned independent Sen. Angus King, but he lost badly (including by a 50-41 margin in the 2nd District) in a contest that was never on anyone's radar.
Farnham, meanwhile, lost re-election in 2012 after a single term in the state Senate, but she had previously been mayor of Bangor, which is one of the largest cities in this heavily rural district. There's no indication yet from either Republican about whether they're interested or not.
● NC-09: Former state Sen. Fern Shubert filed paperwork for the 9th District special election earlier this week and now she's confirmed she is in fact running. Shubert told the News & Observer, "I have a huge head start on name recognition and I'm a known quality," and, well, she's not wrong about the second bit.
ThinkProgress' Josh Israel has had the distinct displeasure of taking a deep dive into Shubert's history, and she really is a piece of work. In particular, she seems obsessed with homosexuality, blaming same-sex marriage for "rising crime rates" and expressing terror over "homosexual recruitment." Israel archly notes that Shubert did not respond to a request for comment as to whether she still holds these views "now that marriage equality is the law of the land and crime rates have remained near historic lows."
Other Races
● Orange County, CA Supervisor: A nonpartisan special election for one of Orange County's five county supervisor districts, which is home to nearly as many residents as a whole congressional district, was too close to call on Tuesday between former Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez and Irvine Mayor Don Wagner, a Republican. Wagner led by 42-37 after initial votes were counted, a margin of roughly 3,000 votes, with none of the other five candidates—all Republicans—topping 7 percent. However, election officials said they had at least 9,000 more ballots to count as of Wednesday, plus an unknown number of mail ballots.
Observers of California's 2018 elections will recall how numerous Democrats did far better in the final count compared to their election night tallies, and it's quite possible this race could follow a similar trajectory. Notably, a Sanchez victory would give Democrats a second seat on a body that had no Democrats from 2006 until the 2018 elections.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of an active night of special election action, and as always, you can keep tabs on all the D-vs.-R races on our continually updated Big Board.
PA-HD-114: Democrat Bridget Kosierowski won this contest over embattled Republican candidate Frank Scavo. Kosierowski took 62 percent to Scavo's 38. This was an important hold for the Democrats in an Obama-Trump district that Republicans had hoped to flip.
PA-HD-190: Democrat Movita Johnson-Harrell will become the first Muslim woman ever elected to the Pennsylvania state House after winning this race. Johnson-Harrell led the way with 66 percent. Third-party candidates Amen Brown and Pamela Williams took 20 and 11 percent, respectively, while Republican Michael Harvey rounded out the voting with three percent.
Johnson-Harrell's total was watered down by the presence of the two independent candidates, causing her to underperform Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's mammoth margins in this district. On the other hand, Harvey's total for the GOP was right in line with the very low single digits posted by Donald Trump and Mitt Romney.
As a result of the two elections in Pennsylvania, the state House returns to the 110-93 advantage Republicans had after the 2018 election.
GA-HD-176: James Burchett topped fellow Republican Jason Shaw 59-41 in this runoff election. Burchett and Shaw were the top two finishers in this south Georgia district in the first round of voting back in February. This hold means Republicans maintain their 104-75 lead in the state House.
ME-HD-24: Democrat Joe Perry will be returning to the state capital after winning this race. Perry, who was a state senator in this area from 2004-2010, posted a 64-36 win over Republican Thomas White. Democrats maintain a wide 88-56 advantage in the state House after this win, with half a dozen seats held by independents.
MS-HD-32, MS-HD-71, MS-HD-101: Two of the three officially nonpartisan races for the Mississippi state House were decided Tuesday night while one will head to a runoff. In District 32, Solomon Osbourne romped to a 79-21 win over Troy Brown. And in District 71, Ronnie Crudup took 63 percent in a three-way contest, while Edella Coleman took 24 percent and Stephanie Skipper took 12. Osbourne and Crudup say they'll align themselves with the Democrats in the state House representing these strongly blue districts.
District 101 will be headed to a runoff on April 2. Kent McCarthy led the way with 39 percent. The battle for runner-up and a spot in the runoff was very tight, with Steven Utroska edging Andrew Waites 23.51-22.41 for second. Daniel Wade and Gary Crist each took 8 percent. This is extremely red turf and the eventual winner of this race has said they'll join the Republican caucus.
TN-SD-32: Republican Paul Rose easily won this suburban Memphis seat, defeating Democrat Eric Coleman 84-16. This margin represents a significant over-performance, even in this strongly Republican area where Trump took 68 percent and Romney received 71 percent. Republicans remain firmly in control of the state Senate by a 27-5 margin.
TX-HD-125: Democrat Ray Lopez is the winner of this runoff election. Lopez and Republican Fred Rangel were the candidates who advanced after the first round in February, when Democrats collectively won 62 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Rangel, the lone Republican. This time around, Lopez easily outpaced Rangel 58-42.
This race generated quite a bit of attention on both sides of the aisle. High-ranking Texas Republicans like Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. John Cornyn endorsed Rangel, while on the Democratic side, the state party injected $15,000 into the race to aid Lopez. For all the fanfare, this solidly blue districted remained just that.
All of the seats in the Texas House that became vacant after the November elections have now been filled, with Republicans holding an 83-67 advantage.