I’m getting super-busy with - you know, life - and have also posted on other stuff recently. But the tragi-comic mega-circus of Israeli election never stops… could have easily filled 8 Acts diaries, I’ll probably make do with only 5, because election day is exactly a week from now.
Here are the links to Acts One, Two and Three.
Act Four will finally introduce Bibi’s main competition this year. If the diary title sounds like the beginning of a bar joke, you’re spot-on. Except it is a very sad joke indeed. More, below the salmon.
Since 1967, Israel has controlled the lives of the Palestinian people living in East Jerusalem, West Bank, and Gaza, without giving them citizenship; the vast majority have been forced to live as stateless, rightless subjects under military rule.
Even now, as Occupation-tolerant advocates often deny and discount this basic reality (or are shamefully ignorant of it), Israel controls the freedom of movement of these territories' residents, in particular their ability to go abroad and return; controls their residency status; their airspace, currency, water supply, fuel supply, most of their electricity, and their ability to import and export products. All the while, deeply exploiting their day labor and natural resources — and further controlling their social and intimate lives via a secret police that extorts an extensive network of collaborators. THIS IS A VERY PARTIAL LIST.
This Occupation regime has continued unabated for nearly 52 out of the Israeli parliament’s 70 years of existence, covering the last 14 out of Israel's 20 general elections. Apart from a couple of elections in the 1980s-90s, no major Israeli party has campaigned on ending it.
As long as this continues, the Israeli elections cannot be considered really democratic. That said, one should never give up hope, and elections might open the door to the Law of Unintended Consequences, in a good way.
Besides, it’s one of the world's most entertaining electoral circuses. So I'm writing this series.
|
Before visiting the 3 Super-Generals and the Clown, a brief news flash.
Super-Brief Update (circus act 3.5): Drumpf Tries to Meddle, Gaza Militants Show Him How It’s Done.
So… Bibi, crafty as he is, had a string of March Surprises lined up, first and foremost ordering a takeout: a teensy announcement from *45 that the US recognizes Israel’s illegal annexation of the Golan Heights, taken by force from Syria in 1967. The Golan has generally been far less on the headlines than the West Bank and Gaza; and unlike them, the term “no negotiation partner” is not a mendacious self-serving lie but a fairly accurate description of current Syrian reality. So slam-dunk, right? Drumpf, always everyone’s willing useful idiot, provided the goods, without realizing that now his upcoming I-P “Deal of the Century” is even more DOA than it already was.
But on the same day of the announcement, a rocket from Gaza hit a house in an Israeli exurb some 20 km northeast of Tel Aviv, injuring seven. That’s a good ~80-100km distance, demonstrating yet again that Gaza militants can hit most of Israel’s population. There was a precursor a week and a half earlier, with a rocket or two hitting near Tel Aviv harming no one. Israeli militants a.k.a. IDF, can of course hit all of Gaza’s population anytime, and proceeded to do a bit of that of course, as well as destroy Haniyyeh’s HQ, while Hamas swore it was not related to either of the “rogue” launches.
Bibi’s image as “Mr. Security” took a massive hit, a rapid IDF buildup for ground assault and an even greater buildup of fierce rhetoric ensued — and in stepped the Egyptians with a quick cease-fire for which Bibi was secretly grateful, no doubt. It included meaningful civilian concessions (e.g., expanding the fishing zone to 15 nautical miles, the largest since 2000), concessions which of course Bibi’s government and IDF staff didn’t have the brilliance of giving sooner, sans those pesky rockets.
In the melee, of course everyone forgot about the Useful Idiot and his Useless Proclamation. On the plus side for Bibi, everyone also forgot about the fact he’s marked up for 3 corruption indictments right after the elections.
Back to our regular programming.
Another Election about Nothing
Well… almost nothing. This election’s main battle, just like the previous one in 2015, is about Bibi the man himself and little else. In that sense, he has already won. Not because he’s hugely popular (for the umpteenth time, outside of his party’s base he’s not), but because this means that whatever still passes for “centre-left” in Israel continues to cede the main argument — what to do about the Occupation — and instead turns this into a largely content-free mudfight between personalities and between domestic ethno-cultural tribes.
In 2015 two centre-right parties, led by Yair Lapid (the Clown from our title) and by freelancer Tzipi Livni, broke the government midway through its term over acrimonious personal differences with Bibi. Labor quickly recruited Livni for a joint List, and running solely on a “Bibi Fatigue” message they suddenly seemed to pull ahead of Bibi’s Likud after being completely out of the Top 2 in both 2009 and 2013. Bibi’s response was “Make my Day”, betting correctly that this 1 vs. 2 (Livni and Labor’s leader at the time) matchup already favors him. He famously participated himself in the 2015 ad clip below, coming to babysit a couple’s kids because the other two (mentioned by name in the dialogue) can never be trusted.
Besides the creepy element, this ad aired hardly 6 months after the 2014 war in which (besides Bibi ordering assaults that killed hundreds of Gaza’s children) Israeli children were really not safe under Bibi’s watch, some of them even dying. So in a sane country, that ad would have immediately backfired as a macabre, ludicrous monstrosity of a lie.
But again, the “centre-left” (read: lame centre-right) had ceded the country’s main argument before the election even started. Livni was actually in the government during the war, selling it enthusiastically to the world. Labor supported it no less enthusiastically from the outside. So the ad was received as a somewhat endearing, somewhat creepy body blow to the opposition.
In true Groundhog Day manner, little has changed on the election topic since 2015.
Clean-up on Aisle Labor...
Well, some things have changed. The Labor party has managed to self-immolate yet again. First they brought in a political newbie from an actual centre-right party, one Avi Gabay, to lead the party (disclaimer: he was a high-school classmate of my first girlfriend, who doesn’t remember him as noteworthy). Gabay won the party leadership in 2017 in an open vote, so this is not only the politicians’ fault but also rank-and-file Labor members.
Then the first thing he does during the campaign, even before 2018 ended, is in a surprise move dissolve the party’s pact with Livni on live TV, in a humiliating manner with her present on stage. So now besides not being able to offer any genuine alternative to Bibi, he has exposed himself to everyone as a clueless misogynist asshole. Labor dropped immediately to single digits in the polls, and has been painfully clawing back towards ~10 seats (out of 120), which would be its lowest ever. In 2015 with Livni they won 24, their highest this century.
What happens when Labor is weak? It’s open season for Bubble Parties in the center. Labor has been continuously weak since the late 1990s, and now it’s touching rock bottom.
The Bubble Party Madness
Now here again is the title chart. You can see how the big bursts align with weakness on the Zionist Left.
Gold Rush in the center started with the Big Bang of 1977, when the 1973 war’s failure, coupled with disgust with Eastern-Bloc style corruption and bureaucracy (e.g., one had to wait for years for a phone line; my wife’s family living on a farm didn’t get a phone till 1980) — all of it finally caught up with Labor. Tired and disgusted, Israel’s middle class looked for Clean New Politics.
In came a saviour in the form of ex-Chief of Staff and world-famous archaeologist Yigael Yadin, parachuting into politics out of nowhere. Partnering with the Shinui (change) protest movement and attracting the inevitable hacks and free-riders, Yadin’s Dash (acronym for “Democratic Movement for Change”) had unwittingly set the template for much of the coming 45 years of Israeli politics.
Offering
- a clean slate,
- mild libertarianism,
- an eclectic cocktail of celebrities and nobodies,
- Israel’s first-ever open primaries, and
- a vague mishmash on policy vs. “The Arabs”...
...Dash became an irresistible magnet for Israel’s predominantly Ashkenazi (Eastern-European origin) urban upper-middle class. This sector, demographically identified with the centre-left and always wishing to feel it lives in a civilized Western country, defected from the Labor bloc, giving Dash 15 seats in the 1977 elections. My parents voted for Dash. Almost everyone they knew did (my maternal grandpa, blessed be his memory, voted for a small radical-left party that actually talked about the Occupation even then). Meanwhile Likud’s base stayed with Likud and even expanded, handing Begin his first ever electoral victory after 28 straight years of defeat (talk about perseverance, btw).
Thereafter, Dash…
- Joined the Likud government;
- Played an unclear and incoherent role there;
- Duly disintegrated before the next election.
Take the 8 bullet points above, remove the “open primaries” (which nowadays most bubble parties skip in order to keep firm control on power structures), and you’ve got the Centrist Bubble Party recipe. Usually lasts for 1-2 election cycles. Rinse. Remix.
So this time around, the cake mix includes…
Three Super-Generals and One Clown.
Narcissist media clown Yair Lapid, whose own Bubble Party (2013’s big surprise) refuses to die, thanks to Labor’s deepening weakness and to his dictatorial control of his party, joined with ex-Chief of Staff Benny Ganz who is this year’s Yadin, parachuting “clean” into politics and founding his own party (something like “Strength for Israel” yada yada). At the last moment they added two more ex-chief-of-staffs for good measure, one already a proven lousy politician (Boogy) and one who didn’t seem informed or interested until the last day.
As you can see, 2019 is definitely NOT the Year of the Woman in Israeli politics.
Why do I call them Super-Generals? Because unlike the US Chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff (what a mouthful!), in Israel these dudes actually do directly command the entire military, and are given a distinct higher rank; verbally, something like “Super-General”. Nearly all Israeli Super-Generals are highly popular, regardless of how lousy, callous or idiotic they actually are (often, they are all 3). Most Super-Generals find it irresistible once in civvies, to cash the public love into some political capital. But 3 Super-Generals in the top 4 spots of the same List, is unprecedented. This is what desperation looks like.
They called their List “Blue-White”, Israel’s flag colors. Despite almost none of the 4 having any personal history in the centre-left, and despite offering a clearly centre-right platform, even outflanking Bibi from the right on topics like Gaza — Blue-White is where most of the demographic sector known in Israel as “centre-left” (but really: predominantly Ashkenazi middle class) is pinning its hopes of finally beating Bibi.
Blue-White kicked off polling at ~35 seats and substantially ahead of Likud, but has gradually eroded to ~30 and a near dead heat, and I won’t be surprised if they underperform. Military geniuses that they are, they are the only sizable List that has failed to sign a “Leftover pact” with another List. For a List competing for #1, this failure likely means a net loss of 1-2 seats all other things being equal. In 1984, Labor famously had to settle for a power-sharing deal with an all-but-defeated Likud, because of a poor “Leftover pact” decision.
Blue-White placed Ganz at the top, so of course Likud has aimed all its poisoned arrows there, claiming he is mentally ill (a bit of an irony coming from Bibi whose wife is notoriously Meshigene), or at least unfit. All kinds of weird secret tapes of Ganz have mysteriously emerged day after day. One could almost feel sympathy for Ganz, if he hadn’t kicked off his campaign by bragging about having flattened Gaza as a Chief of Staff in 2014, and being totally happy to do even more of that whenever needed.
To be continued, I’m afraid.