The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MI-Sen, MI-11: Army veteran John James, who was the GOP's nominee last year against Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, announced Thursday that he would run for the Senate again this cycle, setting up a challenge with Democratic incumbent Gary Peters.
Campaign Action
James impressed national Republicans last cycle by raising a credible $12 million for his bid against Stabenow and holding her to a 52-46 win despite receiving little outside help. James' performance looked all the more impressive since, on that same night, Republican Bill Schuette lost an open-seat race for governor to Democrat Gretchen Whitmer by a considerably wider 53-44 margin, amid a very good night for Michigan Democrats generally.
The NRSC began trying to recruit James for a repeat bid soon after his defeat, but their counterparts at the GOP's House campaign arm also sought James for a run against freshman Rep. Haley Stevens in the 11th Congressional District. The White House also weighed in, but Trump aides reportedly wanted James to run for the House because they feared a statewide campaign would hurt Trump's re-election efforts because it would lead Democrats to send more money to Michigan to protect Peters.
The NRSC quickly pushed back with a memo arguing that James would aid Trump's quest to win Michigan's 16 electoral votes again, and Politico reports that James and Trump met at the White House last month. Trump apparently wasn't as concerned as his staffers, but nor was he excited about a James Senate campaign. According to Politico, Trump "did not explicitly encourage or discourage James from running for Senate."
Trump may have been lukewarm, but James is likely the strongest candidate that Team Red could field against Peters. Still, he's very much in for a difficult race. While a Morning Consult poll gave Peters a modest 33-23 approval rating for the first quarter of 2019, the senator has experience winning tough contests.
Peters unseated a Republican House incumbent in a swingy district in 2008 and managed to hold on to his seat two years later despite the GOP wave even as many colleagues in similar districts went down to defeat. Peters then decisively won his first Senate race in 2014 during another strong Republican year (albeit against a weak GOP nominee). He's also a strong fundraiser and ended March with $3 million in the bank.
One key reason James' stock emerged from the midterms as high as it did was because Stabenow did not run any negative ads against him. Peters, however, won't hold back if he feels threatened. Most of all, though, the Senate race will probably depend on how well Trump does in the Wolverine State next year. Trump shocked the world in 2016 with his narrow victory in Michigan, but Democrats rebounded strongly in 2018, sweeping every statewide race, picking up seats in the legislature, and flipping two House seats that Trump had carried (including the one James spurned, the 11th).
And that's ultimately why Peters remains the favorite: He can win even if Trump does well. James, on the other hand, needs another strong Trump performance to have a shot at unseating the incumbent. But if Michigan once again goes blue, then it will be extremely difficult for James, who said during his last campaign that he backed the administration "2,000%," to keep from getting swamped.
Senate
● IA-Sen: On Thursday, the DSCC endorsed real estate executive Theresa Greenfield, a move that came just days after she kicked off her campaign against Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst. Also on Thursday, Greenfield earned the backing of EMILY's List. Greenfield faces attorney Kimberly Graham and Eddie Mauro, who badly lost a 2018 House primary, in the contest for the Democratic nod. A few other notable Democrats have made noises over the last few months about running, but the DSCC's move indicates that they either don't expect them to get in or just believe that Greenfield would be the stronger nominee.
The most prominent potential candidate is J.D. Scholten, who held white supremacist Rep. Steve King to a shockingly close 50-47 win last year and has been mulling taking on Ernst or challenging King again. On Thursday, just after the DSCC endorsed Greenfield, Scholten again said he was considering both offices and that he expected to decide next month after he sees the candidates' second quarter fundraising totals, which are due July 15. Scholten told Roll Call that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had told him on Friday that the DSCC would be backing Greenfield. Scholten also said of that talk that, while no one explicitly implored him not to run, "The tone was: they don't need a primary."
Linn County Supervisor Stacey Walker also said in May he was considering, and while he initially pledged to decide that month, he said Monday he was still thinking about it even with Greenfield in the race (the DSCC had not made their endorsement yet). Iowa Starting Line reported in February that the DSCC had spoken to Liz Mathis about running, but she's said nothing over the following three months. And while some Democrats have continued to hope that state Auditor Rob Sand will run, he's shown no obvious interest in this race.
Gubernatorial
● MT-Gov: The Hill reports that GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte has been telling his House colleagues he'll run for governor again next year, and that his announcement could come as soon as Friday. The state party convention will open June 13, which could give Gianforte an incentive to launch his campaign in the near future. The congressman himself only said Tuesday that he would "make a decision soon."
● UT-Gov, UT-04: UtahPolicy reported Wednesday that former state House Speaker Greg Hughes has decided to run for the GOP nod to succeed departing Gov. Gary Herbert and would "officially declare late summer." Hughes told the Salt Lake Tribune the following day that he was "still exploring a race for governor" but was "encouraged by the support and pledges I've received." The paper also noted that Hughes' PAC raised $105,000 in May, which looks like a sign that he's gearing up for a statewide race.
UtahPolicy adds that if Hughes runs, he plans to compete at both the state party convention as well as collect signatures. Thanks to a 2014 law, candidates can reach the primary ballot by either taking enough support at their party convention to advance or by collecting the requisite number of signatures.
They also write that there were "rumors" Hughes could run for Congress against Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, especially if Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman came home to reclaim the governor's office. There were reports in April that Huntsman was considering this, but we've heard nothing since then. There has been no other indication that Hughes is eyeing a seat in the House.
● VT-Gov: GOP Gov. Phil Scott won re-election last year 55-40 in a contest that never looked very competitive, but he may face a prominent Democratic opponent in 2020. VT Digger reported this week that Attorney General T.J. Donovan and Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman are each considering taking him on, and neither ruled anything out when asked. Scott has not yet announced that he's seeking a third two-year term, though the site says that Democrats expect him to run again.
An unnamed source told VT Digger that Donovan was "exploring very seriously." The attorney general was a lot more coy in public, saying, "I would just say people are asking me, I've had a couple conversations and that's the extent of it." Donovan added that he was "nowhere near in terms of making a decision one way or the other." Zuckerman also reportedly is thinking about getting in, but all he would say is that he "feel[s] little pressure to make any immediate decision" and wanted to focus on other things right now.
VT Digger also reports that both Donovan and Zuckerman are reluctant to run against one another in a primary and have been talking to one another about this race. Donovan didn't deny anything, just saying that any conversations that may have taken place are private. However, state Rep. Johanna Donovan, who is the attorney general's mother, didn't rule out the possibility that the two men could compete, saying a primary could "kind of get the Democratic voters out early and interested early."
Both the younger Donovan and Zuckerman have run tough races over the past decade. In 2012 Donovan, who was the Chittenden County state's attorney at the time, challenged longtime Attorney General Bill Sorrell in the primary and lost 51-49. Sorrell retired in 2016 and Donovan had little trouble winning the primary and general elections to succeed him, and he took 70% of the vote in last year's general election.
Zuckerman, by contrast, spent 14 years in the legislature as a member of the Vermont Progressive Party, a third party that often allies with the Democrats. Vermont allows candidates to claim multiple party nominations and in 2016, Zuckerman ran for lieutenant governor in both the Progressive and Democratic primaries.
Zuckerman continued to identify as a Progressive during the campaign, saying on primary night, "I come from the Progressive side, but I'm running as a Democrat in the system, and I'll try to change it as I go." Zuckerman, who picked up a late endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, ended up winning the Democratic nod 44-38; Zuckerman won the Progressive primary by a wider margin. In November Zuckerman, who was identified on the ballot as a "Prog/Dem," defeated his Republican foe, 2012 gubernatorial nominee Randy Brock, 52-45. Last year Zuckerman, who had the same "Prog/Dem" ballot listing, won the general election by a larger 58-40 margin.
While Vermont is a very blue state in federal races, voters have been very open to sending Republicans like Scott to the governor's office. They may not be in a hurry to fire him, either: A Morning Consult poll gave Scott a 59-28 approval rating during the first quarter of 2019. The governor has also been sure to distance himself from Donald Trump, and he said last month that he'd vote for Trump's 2020 GOP primary foe, former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld.
However, Scott has hardly been an ally of Vermont Democrats during his governorship. Last year, for instance, Scott vetoed bills to increase the minimum wage and institute paid leave. Scott also hasn't been afraid to accept help from Trump's allies, either. Last month, Scott held a fundraiser with Scott Walker, the (thankfully) former governor of Wisconsin.
House
● CA-22: Financial advisor Phil Arballo announced this week that he would challenge GOP Rep. Devin Nunes. Arballo entered the race with an endorsement from 2018 Democratic nominee Andrew Janz, who raised $9 million for his bid against Nunes and held the incumbent to a 53-47 win.
● CA-49: Businesswoman Mara Fortin, who owns a chain of bakeries in Southern California, announced this week that she would join the GOP contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Mike Levin. San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott is also competing to take on Levin, who won an open seat race last year by a strong 56-44 margin.
● FL-13: Pharmaceutical lobbyist Amanda Makki kicked off a bid against Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist on Wednesday, but while Republicans might be celebrating the fact that they've landed a woman candidate for Congress, there are quite a few reasons to think this campaign won't go as well as they're wishing.
For one, as the Tampa Bay Times notes, "It's unclear what her ties are to the St. Petersburg area." In fact, they appear to be nil. Makki's LinkedIn profile lists her as still working for the giant lobbying firm K&L Gates, stating she's located in Washington, DC, and while she's since been removed from the firm's website, an archived version of her page from December displays the same information. The Times also reports that Makki doesn't appear to own any property in Pinellas County, which is where the entirety of Florida's 13th Congressional District is based.
For another, she's, well, a lobbyist for Big Pharma. Prior to joining K&L Gates, she spent years at Novo Nordisk, one of the three major firms that manufactures insulin—and has jacked up the price to startling levels in recent years. (According to a Washington Post report earlier this year, Novo Nordisk charged $40 a vial for its main insulin product in 2001; as of last year, it cost $289.) This sort of background is not usually the kind that voters cotton to.
Finally, there's the matter of Makki's opponent and district. Crist is a savvy campaigner who already has $2 million stockpiled, and the 13th almost always supports Democrats: It backed both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as well as Sen. Bill Nelson and gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum in 2018. It would be a difficult challenge for even a strong GOP candidate, but for a DC lobbyist, well … it'll be even tougher.
● MN-08: On Tuesday, local radio host Dave Lee asked on Twitter whether former state Rep. Roger Reinert, who recently finished a deployment in Afghanistan with the Naval Reserve, could be a Democratic candidate here, and Reinert didn't quite rule it out. Reinert responded to the tweet by saying, "My service in #Afghanistan relit my desire to serve again at home. But I have no plans to run for Congress in 2020."
● NJ-05: GOP Montvale Mayor Mike Ghassali announced this week that he would challenge Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer for this competitive North Jersey seat. 2018 nominee John McCann, who raised little money last time and lost to Gottheimer 56-42, also quietly entered the race at some point. Also in the GOP primary is former investment banker Frank Pallotta, who reportedly can self-fund.
Ghassali's Montvale constituency has a population of fewer than 10,000 people, so he won't start with much of a geographic base. However, Ghassali, a Syrian Christian who fled violence in Aleppo along with his family when he was 15, attracted some attention in February of 2017 with his comments on the Trump administration's executive order suspending travel from Syria and other predominantly Muslim nations.
Ghassali responded to the news by pledging that he would "not be signing any executive orders that will ask our employees to defy federal laws," even ones he disagreed with. Ghassali's decision delighted local conservatives, with radio and TV personality Bill Spadea praising him as "truly the epitome of the American dream."
Mayoral
● Houston, TX Mayor: Houston City Councilor Dwight Boykins filed paperwork Tuesday for a November bid against Mayor Sylvester Turner, a fellow Democrat and a former ally whom he has come into conflict with in recent months. Two days later the Houston Professional Fire Fighters Association, who has been at the center of Turner's recent political troubles, endorsed Boykins, and the city councilman used the occasion to issue a press release confirming he was running.
Turner and Boykins have repeatedly clashed over Proposition B, a 2018 ballot initiative that would grant equal pay to firefighters and police of corresponding status. Turner and the local police union opposed Prop B, which was strongly backed by the Fire Fighters Association and passed with 59% of the vote. Turner has repeatedly said Houston can't afford the law, and in April, the city prepared to lay off 66 fire cadets. Last month, though, a judge declared that Prop B was unconstitutional, and it remains unclear what will happen next.
Boykins has been a loud Turner critic throughout this affair. Last month, the councilman declared, "People who are making between $30,000 and $50,000 a year will be unemployed under what the mayor's doing," and added, "Their health care, their retirement are all in jeopardy because he chooses the easy way out -- to lay them off to pay back the firefighters for getting (Prop) B passed."
Texas political writer Charles Kuffner also notes that Boykins, who briefly mulled seeking the 2018 Democratic nod for governor, is considerably more socially conservative than Turner. In 2014, Boykins voted against the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO), which was designed to extend local protections to gay and transgender residents, especially in housing or employment.
The following year, when HERO was on the citywide ballot, Boykins refused to take a stance on the issue. Ultimately, HERO's opponents, in a tactic that foreshadowed what the GOP would do in North Carolina months later, ran a successful and transphobic campaign where they argued that the law would make women unsafe in bathrooms. Turner, by contrast, backed HERO.
Turner already faces opposition from businessman Bill King, a conservative independent who narrowly lost their 2015 race. King supported Prop B last year, arguing that, while it should never have been on the ballot in the first place, a vote against the firefighters "would add insult to injury after what the city did to them in the pension deal and I fear would have a devastating effect on firefighter morale."
Also in the race is wealthy attorney Tony Buzbee, who refuses to identify himself with any party and declared that partisan labels were "bullshit." Buzbee is a former attorney for former GOP Gov. Rick Perry, and in recent years, he's hosted fundraisers with Donald Trump as well as Hillary Clinton. Buzbee has already been running TV spots against Turner well ahead of Election Day.
Buzbee has also been involved in the Prop B controversy, with the Fire Fighters Association accepting an offer from him last year to mediate the dispute between themselves and the city at no cost. That didn't stop them from backing Boykins over him, but Buzbee insisted Thursday that "this won't impact our campaign."
Houston's candidate filing deadline isn't until late August, so there's still time for more candidates to get in. All the contenders will compete on one non-partisan ballot on Nov. 5, and if no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff Dec. 14.