Oh hey there!
Extremely grateful to you for taking some time from [INSERT CORONAVIRUS-ALTERED ACTIVITY HERE] to join me for the latest in statehouse action.
Me, I’m taking a little time out from attending my first full-fledged virtual conference.
It’s … weird. But it’s good! The content is amazing, and large swaths of the event translate well to the online platform.
But part of the fun of conferences is seeing people you don’t often otherwise see or finally connecting with that person you’ve only ever emailed with or running into that person from six jobs/campaigns ago you’d lost touch with or … well, you get it.
Just another thing we’ve lost for the foreseeable future because of the Trump administration’s gross failures at every possible level.
But one of the ways we go about remedying the myriad disasters Trump and Co. are going to leave us with is to prevent Republican state legislators from gerrymandering the GOP into an artificial congressional majority for the next decade.
Because it’s going to take way more than just a Democratic president to fix shit.
To that end, this week’s installment of my multi-part look into GOP-controlled legislative chambers that Democrats can flip in November will focus on the Michigan House.
Campaign Action
You can check out previous weeks’ dives into the Minnesota Senate, the Pennsylvania House, and the Arizona House and Senate if the mood strikes.
Just to refresh your recollection, Michigan is one of eight top-targeted state legislative chambers this fall.
The full list, by the by:
- Arizona House (Dems need to flip two for a majority)
- Arizona Senate (Dems need to flip three)
- Michigan House (Dems need to flip four)
- Minnesota Senate (flip two)
- North Carolina House (flip six)
- North Carolina Senate (flip five)
- Pennsylvania House (flip nine)
- Texas House (flip nine)
So! Michigan House (58 R/52 D).
Not-so-fun-fact! Republicans have won a majority in the 110-seat Michigan House of Representatives since the last round of redistricting in 2011 despite Democrats winning more votes in three of the last four elections!
Yeah, that’s a gerrymander for ya.
But despite the GOP’s incredibly skewed map, Democrats do have a path to a majority here.
- In 2018, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Bill Schuette 53-44 to become governor and carried 56 of the 110 House seats—exactly the number that her party needs to take a majority.
- Helpfully, no Democrats represent districts won by Schuette, which means that Republicans are playing defense in four seats Whitmer won.
- That said, Trump won three of these four seats in 2016, so a sweep is a tall order for sure.
Let’s take a peek at those four districts.
- Democrats’ apparent best pickup opportunity in the state is HD-61, which supported Whitmer by a wide 54-43 margin and backed Hillary Clinton 49-45.
- Republican incumbent Brandt Iden won his third term 51-49 in 2018, but another fun fact about Michigan is that the state legislature is subject to term limits.
- The Republican in the race is Bronwyn Haltom, a longtime GOP operative who returned to Michigan just last year after working in Trump’s White House.
- She faces Democrat Christine Morse, a county commissioner and breast cancer survivor whose life and family experiences have made her a staunch progressive.
A little more of a reach are HDs 38 and 39, both won by Trump in 2016 and by Whitmer in 2018.
- HD-38 went for Trump 49-46 before supporting Whitmer 52-46.
- HD-39 backed Trump 50-46, but Whitmer won it 53-45.
- Republican incumbent Ryan Berman was elected to his first term in 2018 54-42, but that election took place under … unfortunate circumstances:
- This time around, Berman faces Julia Pulver, a nurse who counts healthcare as her highest policy priority—a sure selling point as the pandemic continues to rage.
- And finally there’s HD-45, which supported Whitmer just 49.2-48.8—a margin of 181 votes.
- In 2016, Trump took the seat 51-44.
- Republican incumbent Michael Webber won 55-45 in 2018, but he’s termed-out this year, depriving Republicans of the benefit of incumbency, at least.
- Republican Mark Tisdel is running to succeed him.
- He “supports most Trump policies” but “wishes the president would quit tweeting.”
- Democrat Barb Arness is a small business owner and a local education board trustee whose years of education advocacy will strongly inform her priorities in the Michigan House.
So while these targets are super viable, flipping the Michigan House on Nov. 3 will require a lot to go right for Democrats.
- Specifically, not only do they have to run the table in these four districts, but they also may have some defense to play.
- Remember, 10 seats they currently hold voted for Trump in 2016 (though they all went for Whitmer two years later).
- And yes, I know Michigan voters approved an independent redistricting commission in 2018.
- But since then, the GOP majorities in the legislature have been attacking it pretty much nonstop.
- A Democratic House would finally stymie those efforts.
Okay, after all that, let’s take a moment to reflect on the benefits of winning a Democratic-majority legislature.
- In Nevada, a resolution declaring racism a public health emergency passed the Democratic state Senate (unanimously!) last week and is on its way to sail through the Democratic-majority Assembly.
- In preparation for an Aug. 18 special session to address both state budget issues resulting from Trump’s mishandling of COVID-19 and criminal and social justice reform, Virginia Democrats have unveiled a broad police reform bill.
- The measure would
- Create statewide standards of policing and block officers with poor records from getting jobs in other Virginia police departments;
- Outlaw no-knock warrants;
- Require the police to publish data on traffic stops and other metrics; and, um …
- Ban police from having sex with someone they arrest.
HOW IS THAT LEGAL
- Regrettably, Virginia lawmakers don’t seem to yet have the stomach to push for the elimination of qualified immunity, the dubious legal doctrine that prevents police from being held liable when they violate people’s rights.
Sometimes, though, even when Democrats are in charge, Republicans still manage to screw stuff up in a state.
- In Maine, Republicans are refusing to do their jobs.
- Despite the fact that Democrats have the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the legislature, Republicans continue to block efforts to call a special session to take action on the 400 or so bills left languishing after lawmakers wisely adjourned early as the pandemic began to pick up steam in March.
- In Maine, the legislature can only return for a special session if majorities of both parties’ caucuses agree.
And finally, some good news FROM THE FUTURE
… wait no I meant for the future
- You see, New Hampshire has legalized flying cars.
- They call them “roadable aircraft,” but we all know what that really means.
- The new law requires you use an actual airstrip for takeoffs and landings, but you can totally drive your flying car to and from said airstrip once your vehicle is properly registered.
Welp, that’s a wrap for this week.
Oh, and a programming note: I’m actually taking a little breather next week as I try to cram in as much relaxation (and oysters) as possible in advance of the post-Labor Day election sprint.
So while I’m looking after me, you look after you, too, okay?
Because you’re important, and we need you.
