Earlier this week, we got the first real “holy shit” moment of this campaign. The Nebraska Democratic Party dropped a poll suggesting Biden and Trump were practically tied in NE-01, which serves the state capital of Lincoln as well as most of east-central Nebraska outside of the inner ring of Omaha. It pegged Biden with 46 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, mainly on the strength of Biden beating Trump by 15 in Lancaster County, home to Lincoln. By comparison, Trump won this district 58-36 in 2016.
There are a lot of reasons why this poll is absolutely staggering if accurate. NE-01 is undeniably red, with a PVI of R+11. Trump won it 58-36 in 2016, and in all likelihood the Democrats last carried it in LBJ’s landslide of 1964. Plus, there is no reason anyone should even be talking about flipping anything in Nebraska outside of Omaha-based NE-02.
And yet, as near as can be determined, this has been the response from the red team.
That’s right. Unless I missed something, neither the national party nor the Nebraska GOP have come out with anything resembling a response. That would be understandable if Nathan Gonzales hadn’t put NE-01 on his list of “races to watch”—districts that are rated Solid Republican for now, but could potentially see an upset given how much Trump is tanking nationally.
If Biden is even potentially competitive in this district, it can only mean bad news for NE-01’s eight-term Republican incumbent, Jeff Fortenberry. Granted, the Lincoln suburbs and Omaha exurbs are red enough to save Trump’s bacon. But a close presidential race can only help Fortenberry’s Democratic challenger, state senator Kate Bolz, who represents part of Lincoln. Fortenberry has faced only two substantive Democratic challengers since succeeding longtime congressman Doug Bereuter in 2004. But if this poll is accurate, Bolz is on her way to being the third. Indeed, state Democratic Party chairwoman Jane Kleeb called Bolz the strongest Democrat to run in this district in two decades. Kleeb knows what it takes to run a solid campaign outside of Omaha. Her husband, Scott, is best known for making a shockingly close bid for the deep red NE-03, taking 45 percent of the vote—only the third time in the last half century that a Democrat has come even remotely close to flipping it.
It’s worth noting that NE-01’s PVI is almost identical to that of OK-05, which saw Kendra Horn end a 43-year Republican hold in a major upset. Granted, NE-01 isn’t quite as urban on paper, but if Bolz can run it up in Lincoln the way Horn ran it up in Oklahoma City, it can happen. Even if she doesn’t become the second Democrat to win this district since the 1930s, at the very least she could be the first to keep the margin within single digits since 1974.
Indeed, on paper Bolz may find it a lot easier than it may seem to persuade people who normally vote Republican to vote for her. You see, Nebraska has the only nonpartisan legislature in the country. However, all but one of its 49 members are known to be either Democrats or Republicans, and the parties explicitly endorse candidates for seats. There’s no way Bolz wouldn’t have won her seat without a lot of crossover. Indeed, she frequently touts how she has worked across the aisle. Bolz also has local roots; she grew up on a farm in nearby Palmyra.
On paper, that should make it a lot harder for Fortenberry to fall back on the boilerplate Republican tactic of turning Bolz into a Pelosi clone. But if there’s anything to this poll, Fortenberry probably can’t rely on people just walking in, pulling the Republican lever and walking out. Granted, the Lincoln suburbs and Omaha exurbs are probably red enough to save Trump’s bacon in this district. But if Biden can keep it close, it could be enough to pull Bolz over the finish line. And if that were to happen, Biden is probably well on his way to a decisive Electoral College victory. At the very least, he will have tied Obama’s 365-vote haul in 2008, and could garner as many as 390. Of course, it also means he’s gone gangbusters in NE-02 and racked up at least 40 percent of Nebraska’s statewide vote—something that only two Democrats have pulled off since Truman. Of course, if by some miracle Biden manages to flip NE-01, Katy bar the door—Trump will have been Hoovered, and bigly.
All of this is why the silence from the red team is rather staggering. A poll that, on paper, is the equivalent of a flashing red light for them, and they haven’t spoken up to question it? Either they’re not used to having to poll a district that’s usually been an automatic deposit for them, or their internal polling must suck.
Either way, Bolz is going to need a lot of help to pull this off. Click here to donate.
