538 reached a number of conclusions that are important. First they said that Senator Harris was a popular choice and they said that she was a solid and qualified running mate .
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Two early polls suggest that the public has had a reasonably positive reaction to Harris’s selection, too. A snap poll by YouGov after the pick found that 51 percent of voters approved of the choice while 36 percent disapproved. And 47 percent told ABC News/Ipsos that Harris was an excellent or good choice — including 83 percent of Democrats. Only 29 percent said the choice was not so good or poor.
Bottom line: Biden’s decision to pick a woman as his VP has remained widely popular, and in Harris, he’s found a solid No. 2. As a former presidential contender, she’s already been through public scrutiny of her record and background, and, as a U.S. senator, she has high-level political experience. She’s also a relatively popular choice according to the polls, so her history-making nomination should please many Democrats
.They also said that Senator Harris was the most popular choice and had better favorable numbers:
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One other thing that’s clear from the polls? Harris was the leading contender. A late-July SurveyUSA/FairVote poll of Democrats and independents found that Harris had the strongest favorability rating among potential VP picks, for instance. And using ranked-choice voting, the poll also found Harris was the preferred option, beating Sen. Elizabeth Warren 55 percent to 45 percent after second- and third-choice votes were allocated. (Harris also led 26 percent to 22 percent over Warren in first-choice votes.)
Other favorability polling echoes the SurveyUSA/FairVote findings. Both an early-August survey from The Economist/YouGov and a late-July Politico/Morning Consult poll found Harris had better marks among Democrats than any other VP contender save Warren, although they ran about even in the YouGov survey. Each poll also found Harris with a slightly better net favorability rating (favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage) than Warren among all respondents.
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.Third, they said that Biden has better favorability ratings than Clinton did last time around:
.According to Morning Consult polling, Biden isn’t as disliked as Hillary Clinton was four years ago. In its latest survey, 35 percent of voters held very unfavorable views of Biden, compared with 43 percent who felt the same about Clinton in early August 2016. Broken down by party, the largest difference, by far, was among independents: Just 31 percent viewed Biden very unfavorably, compared with 51 percent who viewed Clinton very unfavorably.
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.Finally, they said that Biden’s national lead is not shrinking, but his state lead is shrinking a little bit. That should be enough to make sure that we all know that we need to keep doing everything we can to pull off a win, preferably a big win, up and down the ticket this November.
.There hasn’t been much high-quality polling as we inch closer to the conventions, but we got some new national and state polls yesterday. So far, it doesn’t seem as if Joe Biden’s advantage is shrinking. He still leads President Trump by more than 8 points in our national polling average. However, some state polls have shown better numbers for Trump in recent days. Our forecast still shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because, simply put, there’s plenty of time for the race to change.
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