15-Second Takeaway
Biden 334 (32 Leaners), 80 Tossups, Trump 124 (18 Leaners)
270 Threshold: 56 Likely D (MI and MN, with FL, ME, NE-2, and PA to the left (more certain))
Hot Contests: TX, GA, IA, OH
A Point in Time
All state polls that have been reported to date were conducted prior to Joe Biden’s announcement of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running-mate Tuesday. Let’s remember this snapshot and see what impacts Sen. Harris has on this race.
Right now, Biden without a running mate likely leads in the 3 crucial Great Lakes states we lost last time. Biden has a solid lead in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, from Virginia up, with 3 very mild exceptions. ME Congressional District 2 is a tossup and PA and ME overall are just likely leads. Biden likely leads in FL and is engaging in the Southeast (NC, GA and SC) and TX. Biden has a lock on the West Coast and very good chances in the Southwest, except for UT.
All of the Republican strongholds larger than 15 Electoral Votes (TX, GA, OH) are tossups. NC is leaning toward Biden and IA is also a tossup. Biden has made inroads in NE, where Congressional District 1 is a tossup and District 2 is leaning his way. Four Republican states are just likely red and 3 are just leaning red.
The Overall Electoral Map
Texas, the biggest red state, is edging toward Leans D, despite the best efforts of Republican pollsters throwing up extreme outliers. Biden has likely led Florida, the biggest swing state, all summer. If Biden and Democrats win those two states for a couple of cycles, it’s all over for the Republican Party as a national (nationalist) party in its current racist, fascist, theocratic formulation.
As a reminder, the Democrats have a lock on electors, and close to a lock on Senators, from the other big states: CA (55), NY (29), IL (20), the 35 votes in NJ, MA and MD, and the 19 votes in WA and OR. Once in awhile the Great Lakes-ish states of PA (20), MI (16) and WI (10) swing Republican, notably in the 2016 presidential race. OH (18) usually goes Republican for president, joining TX (38), FL (29) and GA (16) in the Republican must-have category.
But the rest is just details if the Democrats win TX and FL in addition to CA, NY and IL. That’s 171 Electors right there.
