We all knew that based on trends, it wasn’t going to be long before Texas was going to be a swing state. But almost no one expected it to be this cycle. Numerous high-quality polls this summer have shown the race for the Lone Star State within single digits—and some particularly tantalizing polls have actually shown Biden ahead of Trump. It’s enough that FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of polls in Texas shows Trump with a wafer-thin lead of 47.1 percent to Biden’s 46.6 percent.
Even with these numbers, when FiveThirtyEight rolled out the initial edition of its 2020 Electoral College forecast, it gave Trump a 70 percent chance of winning Texas. Apparently this is due to Texas’ past history, since 51 percent of its projection comes from past voting patterns and demographics. Remember, Texas has gone Republican in all but one election since 1972, and since 1980 only the Clintons (Bill both times, and Hillary in 2016) have been able to keep the margin within single digits.
But if one House race in Texas is any indication, Nate’s projections may be a little too generous to Trump. That would be TX-03, in the wealthy northern suburbs of Dallas—Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, among other places. This district has been in Republican hands without interruption since a 1968 special election. This area was one of the first parts of the Metroplex to turn Republican.
Since then, it’s been the quintessential affluent suburban district in the South. That is, rock-ribbed Republican, with a heavy tint of social conservatism—some of the most politically active churches in the nation are based here. Its best-known congressman was Sam Johnson, a Korea and Vietnam vet who held the seat for 28 years, and for much of that time was a bomb-throwing conservative. He retired in 2018 and handed the seat to another Republican, Van Taylor.
But Cook Political Report believes the times may be changing a lot sooner than expected. As part of a tranche of ratings changes that were almost all in the Democrats’ direction, it moved TX-03 to “lean Republican.”
Cook’s House analyst, David “I’ve seen enough” Wasserman, writes (paywalled, sorry) that TX-03’s trendline suggests it's a “ticking time bomb” for the red team. It went from a 63-34 win for Mitt Romney in 2012 to a 55-41 win for Trump. Then, in 2018, kerplunk—in the Senate race, Ted Cruz only won it 51-48. Taylor only won his seat by 10 points against a nominal Democratic challenger. Considering its red pedigree, one had to wonder—could things have been more interesting here had Taylor attracted a stronger opponent and/or the governor’s race hadn’t been such a snoozer?
This year, attorney Lulu Seikaly emerged from a three-way primary, though she had to win a July runoff to lock up the nomination. Last week, her campaign released an internal poll showing Taylor only getting 43 percent to Seikaly’s 37 percent—and also showed Biden and Trump practically tied, with Biden getting 48 percent to Trump’s 46 percent. According to Wasserman, Republican observers have conceded that Biden really could be leading here. Simply put, districts with pedigrees as red as this one aren't supposed to be on the board 81 days before Election Day.
Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales, who has listed this district in his “Races to Watch”—districts that could see upsets even though they’re rated Solid Republican for now—got his hands on an internal poll for the Taylor campaign with almost identical results.
Staggering. A historically rock-ribbed Republican district, and a Republican incumbent is under 50 percent 81 days out? There’s no way to sugarcoat it—Taylor is in real trouble here. And it’s even more staggering when you consider that this district was literally drawn to elect a Republican. The 2010s redistricting carved away this district’s last share of northern Dallas County, though it still includes Collin County’s share of Dallas itself. Much of that area is now part of neighboring TX-32; when Colin Allred won it in 2018, he became the first Democrat to represent much of this area in half a century.
Wasserman notes that TX-03 is the most college-educated district in the country still held by a Republican. The others?
As of this writing, the other six districts on this list are pure toss-ups. It was no secret that Trump was tanking among college graduates. But none of these districts have even been on the board at this stage in an election in my lifetime.
According to Wasserman, the only thing saving Taylor’s bacon at this point is his war chest. He’s one of the richest members of the House, with a net worth of over $34 million. Presently, Seikaly has only $39,000 on hand to Taylor’s $1.06 million. That would be a huge gap even without having to advertise on Metroplex TV. However, Wasserman believes Seikaly could get some help from the state party, which is planning to make a push to flip a number of state house seats in Collin County.
The mere fact we’re even talking about flipping this district should tell you how much trouble the GOP is in. It cannot be stated enough—this was the quintessential affluent suburban district in the South, and yet it’s on the board with 81 days to go. If Biden manages to carry this district, or even keeps it close, he’s probably well on his way to victory.
But there are two big reasons not to let up on the gas. For Biden to have even a chance here, he has probably managed to win over a lot of people who have voted Republican all their lives. We’re competitive here only if we get serious about GOTV.
Second, Seikaly is going to need a ton of help in order to carry the fight to Taylor, especially considering that she has to advertise on Metroplex TV. If anyone deserves a money bomb tonight, it’s here. Click here to donate.
