90% of the media coverage of the USPS thing is to the effect that Trump may be able to swing the election by crippling the mails. The other 10% deals with Dejoy’s conflicts of interest.
Those are real issues, but I think we are missing a factor which might actually be a bigger driver than either of those other two. I mean, does Trump really believe he will swing the election by delaying the mails? I doubt that. More likely is that he wants there to be chaos on election evening so he can do another Bush V. Gore. That’s certainly plausible, and probably within Trump’s ability to reason.
But there is possibly another factor. This is all about Trump’s ego, so it automatically becomes a very likely factor. Remember how obsessed Trump was about Obama’s inauguration audience size versus Trump’s? This is the kind of thing that really drives Trump. Well, he lost the popular vote by 3 million votes to a “nasty woman” and that has haunted him for nearly 4 years.
Balloting by mail is not going to change Utah’s results one bit. Nor will it change Oregon, Colorado or many other states. I’m struggling to think of a single state where the USPS tampering is likely to actually change the outcome. I’m sure it could happen, but both sides vote by mail, so I don’t really see a clear strategy there.
But here’s the thing nobody discusses. The national average for mid-term turnout is about 50%. In 2018 Oregon got 63%, Colorado got 62%, Montana got 61%. These are all states tat are either 100% vote-by-mail or else have very convenient vote-by-mail options.
www.sightline.org/…
www.electproject.org/…
More states are equipped to scale up vote-by-mail in 2020, and many of those are states that Trump is going to lose regardless. Let’s say Trump is able to squeak out another freaky E.C. victory this year. If he did that with normal mail service, he probably would lose the popular vote by 6 million this time. A normal person was say “Yay, I won. I get 4 more years.” But not Trump. He has mental problems of the deepest kind. He would be tormented by any loss of popular vote, especially one as big as 5-6 million votes.
Maybe that is really what is driving him.
