For those of you not old enough to remember Nicolae Ceaușescu, he was the Communist dictator of Romania. In December 1989, anti government protests were put down with live fire. That ignited nationwide protests. In response Ceaușescu had the party organise a big pro-government rally he would address from a balcony in the capital. A huge crowd, complete with party banners was duly assembled and Nicolae starts to address them with a grand patrotic speech to applause. Then the mood changes. He strains to hear what the crowd is shouting and makes out the boos and jeers rather than cheers. It’s a study in a ruthless dictator realising his time is up. He and his wife were captured, summarily tried and immediately executed on December 25.
Ceaușescu had been head of state in Romania for 22 years. Belarus’s Lukashenko has been president for 24. On Monday he got what might be his Ceaușescu moment.
On August 14 the official “results” of the Belarus presidential election gave Lukashenko 80.1% of the votes. Since the election there had been brutally put-down protests about the election, one died. Thousands were arrested and beaten although most were released to show their bruises in order to terrorise the rest. His main opponent was arrested, forced to make a video statement and then fled the country after threats to her children. Monday, the UK refused to recognise the outcome of the election.
Strikes had broken out in Minsk but a tractor factory had stayed open throughout the disturbances. Where better to go for a photo-opportunity to give a speech to loyal workers after a weekend of demonstrations and despite you having to helicopter in to avoid the protests outside the factory.
On a visit to a Minsk tractor plant on Monday, Mr Lukashenko sought to defend his disputed victory, telling workers: "We held the election. Until you kill me, there will be no other election."
And then the moment he tries to appease the crowd with the promise of reform …. after a bit. The classic delay until you can put the rebellion down move.
However he said he was willing to hold a referendum and "hand over my authority in accordance with the constitution - but not under pressure and not via street protests".
As Mr Lukashenko spoke at the factory, workers booed him and chanted "leave".
A word of caution, don’t assume that this is the start of a slippery slope for Lukashenko to a luxury retirement dacha on the Sochi coast. He has already asked for “fraternal assistance” with the protests. The indication was that the assistance may include the sort the USSR gave to Czechoslovakia in August 1968.
