Democratic National Convention liveblogging Day 1

Running a live blog for entire convention just in case.

I will interject occasional things below as the evening proceeds

Using @FiveThirtyEight's terrific estimates of polling averages for historic contests, looked at where Biden stands coming into the convention. Upshot: in better shape than any Democrat since at least 1968. https://t.co/BPvRWxAwwO

— Philip Bump (@pbump) August 17, 2020

Despite what you may have heard, polling four years ago was unusually accurate at a national level. That’s worth keeping in mind when considering now-President Trump’s responses to what the polls are saying currently.

As it stands, Trump trails former vice president Joe Biden by 8.2 points (FiveThirtyEight) or 7.7 points (RealClearPolitics). The differences stem largely from how the averages are calculated, but each tells the same story: Trump trails.

Comparing that margin to the past 50-plus years of presidential polls, as also compiled by FiveThirtyEight, we see that Biden’s lead is stronger coming into the Democratic convention than any Democratic candidate over that period. In 1976, Jimmy Carter came into the convention with a 6.9-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight’s recreated average of polls at the time. In 1996, Bill Clinton’s lead entering the Democratic convention was 5.1 points. Both of those candidates went on to win.

What should be more worrisome for Trump is that, even if the conventions were proceeding as normal, the bump candidates have gotten from conventions in the past 20 years have been modest. Since 2000, the biggest shift in the polling average between the start of the convention and a week later was seen by then-Vice President Al Gore, who improved by 11 points. That lead eventually faded.

[...]

Over the weekend, Trump introduced a new argument to support his claim that his supporters are loath to be honest with pollsters. (This is somewhat at odds with his “suppression polls” claim, but consistency is not one of Trump’s hallmarks.) He said during a news briefing and again on Fox that 62 percent of people say they’re not honest with pollsters — apparently an effort to retrofit a July poll from the Cato Institute, which dealt broadly with people’s comfort levels in being honest in their political discourse to polling specifically.

In other words, Cato found that more than half of Americans have withheld their opinions at some point out of concern they’d be considered offensive. To Trump, this apparently means that 62 percent of Americans tell pollsters they support Biden instead of him.

As always, Trump isn’t trying to accurately convey information about polling; he’s trying to blur that reality. In this case, the reality is that Biden has a healthy lead over Trump, one which is probably stronger coming into the convention than that seen by any Democrat since at least 1968.

www.washingtonpost.com/...

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 12:01:32 AM +00:00 · annieli

MSNBC has Joy Reid, Rachel Maddow and Nicole Wallace

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 1:08:54 AM +00:00 · annieli

nice graphics for the national anthem

Eva Longoria does great job doing the hosting

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 1:14:10 AM +00:00 · annieli

good segments with everyday folks (in mainly swing states)

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 1:52:46 AM +00:00 · annieli

pacing is fine, the personal stories are good and it is good to see Cuomo do a tight segment

"His only preexisting condition was trusting Donald Trump, and for that, he paid with his life."

-Kristin Urquiza speaking of her father, who died from COVID19

— Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) August 18, 2020

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 1:59:56 AM +00:00 · annieli

Monday - St Louis gun couple
Tuesday - statue of Jefferson Davis
Wednesday - twitter account with anime avatar that says "did you just assume my gender"
Thursday - 63 million doses of hydroxychloroquine https://t.co/6LGk1MHngX

— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) August 18, 2020

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 2:08:19 AM +00:00 · annieli

Gretchen Whitmer does a good speech, the intermediate segments are also good

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 2:16:53 AM +00:00 · annieli

good sequence for GOP beginning with Christine Todd Whitman, Meg Whitman and Susan Molinari introducing John Kasich. The testimonials from lifelong Republicans who are voting for Biden are pretty convincing. 

WATCH: A host of Republicans at #DemConventionendorse Joe Biden including Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, Meg Whitman, Rep. Susan Molinari, & Gov. John Kasich.

Kasich: "I'm a lifelong Republican but that attachment holds 2nd place to my responsibility to my country." #DemConvention pic.twitter.com/TaVAlan3fB

— The Hill (@thehill) August 18, 2020

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 2:39:12 AM +00:00 · annieli

Bernie Sanders does it well. Reminds us why the nation needs protection from Trump.

Sanders: "In response to the unprecedented crises we face, we need an unprecedented response—a movement, like never before, of people who are prepared to stand up and fight for democracy and ... against greed, oligarchy, and bigotry. And we need Joe Biden as our next president."

One million views in under two hours. Donald, we're just not that into you. Keep retweeting. #DivorceTrump pic.twitter.com/X9PqzbGXZ8

— MeidasTouch.com (@MeidasTouch) August 17, 2020

Bernie Sanders isn't just endorsing Joe Biden at the #DemConvention.

The two have joined forces to craft a bold, progressive agenda for an incoming Biden administration, if he wins the November election. https://t.co/YMXAW0s2BY

— Vox (@voxdotcom) August 18, 2020

Are you watching the #DemocraticConvention?

Having a watch party with friends?

Play #DemocraticNationalConvention bingo to raise the stakes! #BidenCoalition pic.twitter.com/OWW0Na6s1i

— Leia🇨🇴 (@TheSWPrincess) August 18, 2020

Tuesday, Aug 18, 2020 · 2:53:07 AM +00:00 · annieli

Michelle Obama: "Stating the simple fact that a Black life matters is still met with derision from the nation's highest office. Because whenever we look to this White House for some leadership ... what we get instead is chaos, division, and a total and utter lack of empathy."

Michelle Obama.
pic.twitter.com/SQfCYrYfjD

— Karine Jean-Pierre (@K_JeanPierre) August 18, 2020

Michelle Obama: "Let's be clear. Going high does not mean putting on a smile & saying nice things when confronted by viciousness & cruelty ... So let me be as honest & clear as I possibly can. Donald Trump is the wrong president for our country ... he is clearly in over his head" pic.twitter.com/6xVsJpe3s4

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 18, 2020

Closing with Stephen Stills and Billy Porter