If there was any doubt that the GOP is in real trouble in 2020, it was erased earlier today, when Cook Political Report moved Senator Lindsey Graham’s bid for a fourth term in South Carolina to “Lean Republican.” That in and of itself is staggering since, more likely than not, Trump only loses South Carolina in the event of a 45-state landslide for Biden.
But consider that when the year began, nearly every pundit believed that Democratic challenger and former state party chairman Jaime Harrison faced a heavy lift to upend Graham. In the space of that year, this race has moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican all the way to Lean Republican—almost precisely dovetailing with Trump’s slide in the polls.
Cook Political’s Jessica Taylor notes one big reason why Harrison has made this race easily the most competitive Senate race in South Carolina since at least 2004. Harrison is printing money.
Harrison has now outraised Graham for two consecutive quarters. He has pulled nearly even with Graham for amount raised throughout the cycle, with $30.9 million brought in by Graham and $29 million total raised by Harrison through the end of June.
Simply put, Democrats are not supposed to raise this kind of money for a Senate race in a state that is as red as South Carolina is on paper. And certainly not in a presidential year. It’s allowed Harrison to get on TV and stay there since April. That’s critical, because running statewide in South Carolina means airing ads in Charlotte, Augusta, and Savannah—areas where most of your audience can’t vote for you.
I admit being somewhat biased as a Charlottean, but the fact Harrison has enough money to get on the air in Charlotte says a lot, given how expensive the market has become (it’s currently 25th). it’s been a long time since I’ve seen ads for a Democratic Senate candidate in South Carolina.
Notably, Harrison had the airwaves more or less to himself until Graham aired his first ad in late May. While Harrison started out with positive ads, Graham’s mostly adhered to the standard template for Republicans in the South—turning Harrison into a far-out liberal. However, according to Taylor, a number of South Carolina Republicans don’t think this will work, with one saying that Harrison is laser-focused on “dinner-table issues.” It’s paying off; most polls show Graham still leading, but in single digits. In each of his three previous runs for Senate, Graham had more or less ended matters by this stage. In all likelihood, the last time he had to do any real heavy lifting in a general election was his first run for the House in 1994; he skated to reelection that year and three more times after that, including an unopposed run in 1998. He won Strom Thurmond’s old seat in 2002 with 54 percent, and has been reelected against two severely underfunded Democrats.
But Graham definitely won’t be able to rest easy this year. Most polling shows him leading, but in single digits. The last public poll, from Quinnipiac, showed a flat-footed tie, with both candidates getting 44 percent. Notably, Harrison leads among independents by 10 and women by five. Taylor, however, notes that Graham leads white women by 26—though from my perspective, that margin is probably due to Graham running it up in the deep-red and fundified suburbs of the Upstate (his home turf), Columbia and Charleston. Two internal Democratic polls show Graham leading, but below 50 percent.
Taylor believes that while Harrison is making significant inroads, the “fundamentals” of the race still favor Graham. Still, it’s not a good sign for an incumbent to be below 50 percent 80 days out—and an especially dangerous sign for a guy who is a three-term Senate incumbent and who has spent over a quarter-century in Washington.
Harrison may have also gotten an assist from Trump’s declining standing in South Carolina. Those same polls showing a close Senate race also show Trump only leading Biden by anywhere from five to seven points. In other words—Graham probably can’t hope for coattails from Trump.
The beauty of this? It’s a near-certainty that the NRSC and RNC are going to ride to Graham’s rescue. But every penny they spend saving Graham’s bacon is money that can’t be spent defending more vulnerable Senators like Martha McSally, Susan Collins, Cory Gardner and Thom Tillis. In other words—there may be a wave building up. But even if it doesn't capsize Graham, at the very least the Repubs will have to throw sandbags where they didn’t expect to put them. And that suits this North Carolinian just fine.
The mere fact that we can even talk about flipping a Senate seat in South Carolina is staggering. But Harrison’s going to need a lot of help to keep up this momentum. Click here to donate.
