A donor offered to fund a poll of this topic (that provides a link to download a PDF)n for the Niskanen Center. Rachel Bitecofer offered to administer it, and did so in cooperation with JMC Analytics, a Republican consultancy, to ensure legitimacy.
I was supposed to have access to this last night, with an understanding that it was embargoed until 6 AM this morning. Because of unexpected delays, it was not released on time, and around 7 I got an email, and Dr.Bitecofer began to a Twitter thread that discusses the survey, which you can see here:
The embedded Tweet gives the summary of the study.
As you can see, and as should be expected, the polling sample was 56% R to 34% D, and it was taken in key battleground state of PA, in 3 largely rural Congressional Districts. As you can see in the 2nd bullet, R voters have been persuaded by Trump NOT to vote by mail. A similar partisan split is shown on the question of reliance on USPS.
Before offering a bit more detail, let me note that the poll was in the field August 13-14, which is before people were finding out about the removal of the sorting machines from many processing centers.
Here is a key paragraph from the summary:
As you examine the data in this poll, with responses from686 “likely voters” from three exclusively rural Pennsylvania congressional districts (12th, 13th, and 15th,) keep in mind that this is a highly atypical survey.Its most important “atypical” feature is its partisan balance, because in the polarized era, nothing exerts more influence on public opinion or preference than partisanship. Thus, the fact that 57% of likely voters in these rural districts are less likely to support a candidate that seeks to defund or privatize the Post Office is equivalent to a much higher proportion in a swing district,because 56% of the respondents in this survey are Republicans. In a typical voter survey, Republicans would be 30% or less and a substantial share of Independents would be included.
Note that having more than half of those sample less likely to support a candidate seeking defunding or privatization of USPS is significant given the heavy R tilt of the sample. As the report notes in the very next paragraph:
The results presented here tell a clear story. Even with an overwhelming Republican Party advantage in these three districts, 57% of these rural voters indicate that a candidate who supports privatizing or cutting funds for USPS is less likely to get their vote.While a majority of Democrats in the survey took that view, Republican voters were split evenly. This suggests that Republican candidates everywhere, but especially in rural areas, would be vulnerable to attacks on this issue
Some of Demographics of poll (which was 49% M and 51% F) are as follows:
EDUC:
Non-College Educated 80
College Educated 20
RACE:
White 84
Black or African American 1
Other 15
AGE:
18-34 23
35-54 30
55-64 20’
65+ 27
PARTYID:
Republican 56
Democrat 34
Independent/Unaffiliated/Third party 9
There are very clear graphs in the report.
Offering this post because it gives some interesting detail, and Dr. Bitecofer is correct that we rarely see polling data focused specifically on rural voters, who are much more Republican than the nation as a whole
Please note — this is only focusing on issues of USPS and to some degree handling of the pandemic. We do NOT have questions on the trade policy that heavily hit rural areas, but then Pennsylvania is NOT as heavy a producer of soy (product most heavily hit by Trump’s tariffs as a place like Iowa: it is more heavily dependent upon mushrooms and dairy.
Make of this what you will. Just one more piece of information?
