Reading Kos’ piece on the Trump convention I was reminded of some cross tabs I saw in the latest NPR-PBS Marist poll. Cross tabs are the numbers behind the top numbers where you show how people in various groups answer the question. Their poll is particularly useful in that they split out Big City, Small City, Suburban and Rural voters.
Boy do the ladies in the suburbs and small cities hate Trump. His job approval rating among suburban-small city women is 27-68-4. Just to be clear 27% approve 68% disapprove and 4% were undecided.
There is only one demographic group he is worse off with and that’s African Americans 14-78-8.
That’s right Trump is doing better among the college educated whites,Latinos and 18-39 year olds than suburban women. He’s even performing better among big city voters than suburban and small city ones. That’s why you’ve seen so much mom talk during the convention and less Trump hate. They already hate Trump they just need an alternative. Biden is being really smart about it.
In fact the closest corollary group to suburban women is white evangelicals who approve Trump 73-22-5. Remember that white evangelicals are also known as “the Republican base”. Suburban women are not thought of the Democratic base because historically they’ve been a or the core moderate swing vote. Compassionate Conservatism, aka George W. Bush’s entire persona, was built around securing that voting block because they were decisive both in Texas and nationally.
It looks like this group after bolting D in 2018 is calcifying into a core group of voters for us. It’s not really clear that a four day orgy of “fear the cities, fear the blacks, fear the communists” is going to work much either. At 4% undecided on job approval they have the absolute lowest undecided percent of any demographic group. In any case Trump has used that language for four years and it’s only polarized women against him even more.
Biden on the other hand is being masterful in pulling them further into the tent. Jill Biden’s and Michelle Obama’s entire speeches were crafted around it right down to speaking from an empty school and library shuttered by Trump’s incompetence.
I’m going to enjoy this.
