Here is a quick look at the current state of the race, using the latest polls that have been published. It reveals a remarkably stable race with just 75 days left before Nov. 3, and less days left before early voting or mail-in-voting (mailed or dropped off in boxes) starts.
First, the overall national picture in form of a graph, as of today, courtesy of the Economist’s poll aggregator:
projects.economist.com/...
Since early June, when a much tighter race widened in Biden’s favor, the national poll situation hasn’t changed at all. It is currently at 9.2% in Biden’s favor in the aggregate, just about where the polling has been since about mid-June, more than 2 months ago.
The recent national polls show why. Over the last 3 days 9 national polls have been published. One poll shows a 16% Biden lead, one shows a 14% Biden lead, one shows a 12% Biden lead, 2 of these polls show a 10% Biden lead, one shows a 9% lead, one shows an 8% lead, and then we have the “House of Ras” with Rasmussen showing a 4% Biden lead and HarrisX showing a 6% Biden lead. If you aggregate all of these polls you get an aggregated lead of 9.89% for Biden.
Let’s take a look at these 9 national polls from the last 4 days, sorted from “best” for us to “worst”:
1. Leger poll: Biden/Harris 51% vs. Trump/Pence 35%, a 16% margin
leger360.com/…
Of particular note here is that this pollster is, for the first time, asking for the pairings Biden/Harris vs. Trump/Pence rather than just Biden vs. Trump, and that appears to have a positive effect on the overall numbers as last week’s poll from this same company asking about Biden vs. Trump had the race at Biden 47% vs. Trump at 39%, a margin of 8%.
Last week: leger360.com/…
Another interesting poll finding of this poll is here:
Asked if one has a good or bad opinion about the people listed it is heartening to see people have a good opinion of Biden to the tune of 54% (40% stated they had a bad opinion of him.). Kamala Harris also in positive territory, 47% have a good opinion of her, 36% chose “bad”. In contrast, 40% have a good opinion of Trump while 58% have a bad opinion of him. Pence had 50% with a bad opinion of him, 38% have a good opinion of Pence. This goes to the character of these people.
2. Echelon Insights — Biden 53%, Trump 39%, a 14% margin.
Biden Leads +14 to Democrats’ +9 Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot Match-Up
Also, both Biden and Harris are well ahead of Trump and Pence on favorability:
Trump approval 18% underwater:
Biden is trusted more than Trump on the economy and on public health response to the Coronavirus.
3. ABC News/Washington Post — Biden 53%, Trump 41%, a 12% margin.
Post-ABC poll shows Biden, Harris hold double-digit lead over Trump, Pence
As the two major political parties prepare to open their national conventions, the race for the White House tilts toward the Democrats, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally over President Trump amid continuing disapproval of the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Democrats kick off their convention on Monday in a mood of cautious optimism, with Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.), leading Trump and Vice President Pence by 53 percent to 41 percent among registered voters. The findings are identical among a larger sample of all voting-age adults.
Trump job approval 12% underwater:
Historically, a president’s job approval rating correlates closely with support in a reelection campaign. Currently, 43 percent say they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, up slightly from 39 percent last month, with 55 percent saying they disapprove. His approval rating today is about midway between his high and low points over the past year of Post-ABC polling.
Trump’s standing with Americans continues to be tied to perceptions of the pandemic and of the way he has dealt with it over a period of months. At present, 59 percent of Americans say they disapprove of his handling of the crisis, while 40 percent approve. That is statistically unchanged from last month. But it is sharply different from March, when 51 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.
Favorability: Biden and Harris doing better than Trump and Pence, both positive while Trump and Pence are both negative.
The state of the economy:
Views on the economy are growing worse, now at 68% negative vs. 31% positive. That means that Trump can’t run on the “State of the Economy”.
The WaPo on the economy:
These are the worst findings in nearly six years in Post-ABC polls.
4. The Economist/Yougov poll — Biden 50%, Trump 40%. A 10% margin.
The Economist/Yougov poll Weekly poll
This matches Yougov’s findings from last week, also showing a 10% margin favoring Biden. Last week Biden led Trump 49% to 39%. The number of undecided voters is small in this poll, only 4%.
Trump approval has worsened in this poll from last week to this week. Trump is 13% underwater on his approval in this poll.
Mandatory Mask Policy:
Biden stated in his rousing acceptance speech last night that he would make mask wearing mandatory. FoxNews went ballistic over that, and Trump is sure to chime in negatively. However, a full 70% of Americans support a mandatory mask policy, only 24% oppose it. Biden is strongly on the side of the American people on this issue.
5. Morning Consult Poll — Biden 49%, Trump 39%, a 10% margin.
Morning Consult National Tracking Poll
Biden wins all age groups and also both genders. However, he wins women by 15% and men by 4%. The youngest voters are the most devoted to Biden, with GenZers supporting Biden by a 35% margin, and the 18 to 34 age group supporting him by 31%.
Right Track/Wrong Track off the rails:
72% of Americans feel that the country is on the wrong track. Only 28% feel that the country is on the right track.
Trump approval is underwater by 18%:
6. Data For Progress Poll — Biden 50%, Trump 41%, a 9% margin.
DATA FOR PROGRESS REPORT ON THE STATE OF THE RACE
In this poll there are 9% of “not sure” respondents, which probably includes about 5% of undecided voters and 4% of 3rd party candidate supporters (Hawkins, Jorgensen, West).
Democrats have a 7% advantage over Republicans in the generic Congress vote:
7. Ipsos poll — Biden 48%, Trump 40%, an 8% margin.
Ipsos poll
Undecided is down to 5%. 1% would not vote, 5% currently intend to vote for someone else.
Trump approval is underwater by 17%, with Trump disapproval at 56%, approval at 39%:
Trump approval, over time, not getting any better:
That brings us to the two “House of Ras” polls, polling firms aligned with right-wing pollster Scott Rasmussen. Harris X is the current Scottrasmussen.com house pollster. Not surprisingly, these 2 Rasmussen-aligned pollsters show the tightest races.
8. Harris X — Biden 45%, Trump 39%, a 6% margin.
Hill Harris X poll
The number of undecided voters in this poll is 7%, 4% claim they won’t vote, and another 4% intend to vote for someone else.
Forty-five percent of respondents said they'd vote for Biden on Election Day, while 39 percent said they'd go with Trump.
The results of the Aug. 11-14 survey mark a gain for Biden, who was up 44 percent to 40 percent over Trump in the previous poll, conducted Aug. 8-11.
Hey, FWIW at least these guys show Biden improving by 2% from their last poll which only showed a 4% Biden lead.
9. Rasmussen poll — Biden 48%, Trump 44%, a 4% margin.
Rasmussen White House Watch
The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 48% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
So, those are all the national polls that have been published over the last 4 days, and they run the gamut from a 16% margin for Biden to Rasmussen showing a 4% margin. Taken altogether in the aggregate the aggregated poll margin is 9.89%. With 74 days to go before election day the national race has not changed, it has remained very stable for more than 2 months now. I think we can expect a bit of a convention bounce for Democrats over the next 5 days, but as usual that is probably going to be short lived. I would say that the true state of the race puts it at a 10% margin, and with Biden over 50%, and with only about 4% of undecided voters left this race won’t change much from this until election day. The Economist projects a very small tightening by election day, but not all that much:
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This is the current state of the national race. Things can change, but with only about 4% undecided voters left the chance for a major turnaround in the numbers is slim, but not completely impossible.
Obviously, it is all about turnout. We need to vote and bring people to vote like our lives depend on it, and that they do.
