Early days yet.
The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally of 2020 was, without a doubt, the largest gathering of people since the COVID-19 pandemic started. It drew some 365,000 bikers from all across the US. The event, which 60% of the local residents sought to cancel, was nevertheless approved by a 8-1 vote of the Sturgis City Council. The rally started on August 7 and ended on August 16.
Most of the folks who attended did not wear masks or maintain social distance. Fewer attendees this year were in the 60 to 70 age group, understandably. The Highway Patrol reports that crashes involving injuries were up slightly from 2019, and DUI arrests were down slightly, as were felony drug arrests. Cash seizures were way up—over $18,000 compared to just $4,000 in 2019. All in all, early reports from vendors show increased spending this year. Governor Kristi Noem (R), an enthusiastic promoter of the event, and the City Council can expect around $1.5 million in city and state tax revenue.
This super-spreader event will likely be studied carefully by epidemiologists because of the sheer scale of the rally. The mayor of Sturgis noted that there were no quarantine recommendations for bikers coming from hot spots of Covid-19 in the US and allowed that “people would make the right choices.” Governor Noem was equally disdainful of coronavirus restrictions, and sneered at the “herd mentality” of other states on Fox News. No stay-at-home orders were issued throughout the pandemic, and masks are optional in her state. “South Dakota,” she pronounced, “is not New York City.”
The number of coronavirus cases in SD is rising steadily—from a daily average of under 100 at the start of the month, it has grown by 43% in just the last two weeks. Today the number of new confirmed cases was 125 and two new deaths.
Today (Thursday, Aug 20) the South Dakota Department of Health announced that numerous people who attended the Sturgis Rally tested positive for COVID-19. Although they did not give the exact number of cases, it was noted that the number was “under 25,” including some who came from out of state. These cases prompted the health department to issue a public warning for two popular bars in Sturgis as well as a tattoo shop, where an employee tested positive. “Due to the risk of exposure, individuals who visited these businesses [from Aug 13 through Aug 18] should monitor for symptoms for 14 days after they visited.”
Coronavirus cases tied to Sturgis have crossed state lines. At least seven cases in Nebraska have been identified as having their point of exposure in Sturgis.
Sturgis is planning to conduct mass testing of its residents next week.
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Update #1.
Aug 22, 2020
A really, really long time ago, when I was in boarding school, our entire class went on a field trip. We started at the local station to embark on a two hour train ride to our destination. A small goat had wandered on to the railway track. While we were still processing this oddity, we heard the ominous whoosh of a train approaching through the tunnel. Some of us screamed at the goat to get it to move; most of us just watched in silence, petrified by the certainty of imminent doom.
It is with the same sense of foreboding and fascination that I look for news about Sturgis. What do the hundreds of thousands of bikers who flocked to the rally know that the professionals at CDC and SDDOH don’t? Why did the Governor of South Dakota or the Mayor and City Council of Sturgis not intervene and call off the rally this year?
Antisocial distancing at Sturgis
It’s not as if they did not know about the dangers of such a large super-spreader event. Through it all, the SD Department of Health has been steadily providing daily updates and information about the spread of the virus in all the counties. They even have an information hotline and a useful FAQ about symptoms and potential exposure, socializing risks, etc.
Today, the global death toll due to COVID went past 800,000 in the inexorable march to a million. USA accounts for 180.000 of these.
It is now almost a week since Sturgis 2020 ended. The fallout from the Sturgis Rally is slowly building but it will take a few weeks before the magnitude of the outbreak can be fully assessed.
- In addition to the seven cases in Nebraska, the Minnesota DOH reports that there are at least 15 cases in that state that originated from Sturgis. One of these cases has been hospitalized. The state is urging people who attended the rally to self-isolate for 14 days to avoid potentially infecting others.
- South Dakota itself has seen the number of COVID-19 cases spike up dramatically. In the last three days the number of new cases added were 123, 125, and 193. Although SDDOH has not indicated how many of these cases are attributable to Sturgis, it should be noted that the pre-rally daily average was less than a hundred.
- Sturgis is undergoing mass testing in the wake of the rally. The testing started yesterday (Friday, Aug 21) and will also be done on Monday and Tuesday. Around 800 people have pre-registered and will find out the results within 24 hours of testing. By Thursday or Friday of next week the results will be available for the public. This may be earliest measure of what is in store.
