This is the ninth in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. As usual, we’ll start with the electoral vote breakdowns, then move on to the state-by-state polling for the swing states. All the numbers are from 8/21, so no post-convention bounce for Biden is reflected here. Such bounces are usually short-lived, so if there is one it may be gone when we check in again two weeks from now.
PredictIt markets: Biden 319, Trump 219 (updated 8/21; swing of +15 to Trump). Closest states are AZ, FL (both tilt D) and NC (tilt R).
ElectionProjection.com: Biden 334, Trump 204 (updated 8/19; no change). Weakest D states are AZ, FL, NC and PA; weakest R states are GA, IA, OH, TX.
JHK model: Biden 338, Trump 200 (updated 8/20; swing of +11 to Trump). GA, IA, NC and OH appear to be the weakest states for either side.
Princeton Election Consortium: Updated daily. Biden 349, Trump 189 (swing of +2 to Trump). The link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows a higher count for Biden (407), which is where the model was a month or so ago.
CNN: No update. Biden 268, Trump 170, 100 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, WI.
The Economist: Updated daily. Biden 343, Trump 195 (swing of +13 to Trump). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are AZ, GA, NC, and OH.
Electoral-vote.com: Updated daily. Biden 335, Trump 203 (swing of -37 for Biden, +53 for Trump; the toss-up category disappeared). Weakest D states are GA, MN and NV; weakest R states are AR, IA, NC and OH.
Plural Vote: Updated daily. Biden 337, Trump 201 (swing of +7 to Trump). Weakest D states are AZ and GA; weakest R states are IA, OH and TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: No update. Biden 318, Trump 125, 95 tossups. Tossups are GA, IA, NC, OH, TX, and 1 Congressional district each in ME and NE.
Inside Elections: No update. Biden 319, Trump 188, 31 tossups. Tossups are GA and NC. Weakest D states are AZ, FL, WI; weakest R states are IA, OH, TX.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: No update. Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, WI and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Cook Political Report: No update. Biden 308, Trump 187, 43 tossups. Tossups are AZ, GA, NC, and 1 EV in ME.
Real Clear Politics: No update. Biden 212, Trump 115, 211 tossups. The no toss-up map now shows Biden 337, Trump 201 (a swing of +15 to Trump).
Although the movement for those sites that updated was all in the direction of Trump (a warning bell not to be complacent), 10 of the 13 sites tracked still predict an outright Biden win (11 if we use the RCP “no toss-ups” map), and these converge on between 308 and 349 electoral votes.
Here are current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP, in order of largest to smallest margins for Biden as predicted by 538. This week we add Alaska. I’ll also add MI back in, to make sure the Midwestern trifecta that handed Trump the presidency is fully covered.
(1) MI: Spreads are Biden +7.7 (538, down 0.1) and Biden +6.7 (RCP).
(2) NV: Spreads are Biden +7.4 (538, up 1.4) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(3) WI: Spreads are Biden +6.8 (538, down 0.7) and Biden +6.5 (RCP).
(4) PA: Spreads are Biden +6.0 (538, down 0.1) and Biden +5.7 (RCP).
(5) FL: Spreads are Biden +5.9 (538, up 0.7) and Biden +5.0 (RCP).
(6) AZ: Spreads are Biden +4.3 (538, up 0.7) and Biden +2.0 (RCP).
(7) NC: Spreads are Biden +1.0 (538, down 1.3) and Trump +0.6 (RCP).
(8) OH: Spreads are Trump +0.2 (538, Biden down 0.5) and Biden +2.3 (RCP).
(9) GA: Spreads are Trump +0.7 (538, Biden up 0.2) and Trump +1.1 (RCP).
(10) IA: Spreads are Trump +1.0 (538, Biden up 0.4) and Trump +1.7 (RCP).
(11) TX: Spreads are Trump +1.6 (538, Biden down 0.7) and Trump +3.5 (RCP).
(12) AK: No average — the July polls on 538 remain the same, with Trump up by 1, 3, and 6 pts, while RCP has the single +3 poll, so still Trump +3.3 on average.
Movement in the polling averages continues to be a mixed bag, with Biden moving up in some, down in others. The biggest move up for Biden was in NV, but this was a state Clinton won in 2016, so this doesn’t really help in winning the battleground states needed to defeat Trump. Furthermore, none of the changes are large enough to indicate a significant shift in the race. The Midwestern trifecta (MI, WI, PA) remains Biden’s with margins of 6 pts or more in each state. Movement up for Biden in FL and AZ is offset by movement down in NC.
In a saner world Biden would have 400+ electoral votes locked up by now, but it seems clearer than ever that 40% of the American electorate is not sane, and despite the ongoing dumpster fire that is the Trump administration still approve of him. Share your thoughts — what needs to be done for a Biden victory? Is rescuing the Post Office the top priority? Using Harris and the Obamas to motivate the base? Carrying the fight into as many states as possible?
