As was documented here and here, Joe Biden gave the best political speech of his life, demolishing the blatantly false attacks of the Orange Bigoted Incompetent Narcissist who actually idiotically set expectations low ! Quite simply, Biden was spectacular ! We don’t want to set expectations too low for the RNC so I won’t comment on my expectations from them. Don’t be surprised if we don’t get a bounce despite how great our convention went. There are few people who are truly undecided. Plus, their convention starts right after our convention ends.
Conventions are delivering smaller and smaller bounces in any event. However, this is fine. There are 75 days left until November 3, election day. So, think about this as the contest is really starting now. The way to think about this is that this is similar to Biden starting off with a lead.
So, where does our electorate begin ? Where is the natural state of this race ? Joe Biden begins according to 538 with a national lead of 8.6% and with 51.0% of the vote nationally. He is also up more than 4 points in the following swing states: Arizona (4.3) at 48.7%, Florida (5.9) at 49.9%, Minnesota (5.4) at 50.4% , Michigan (7.7) at 49.9% , Pennsylvania (6.0) at 49.9% , and Wisconsin (6.8) at 50.0%.
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Current status of swing states
| STATE |
BIDEN PCT NOW |
BIDEN LEAD NOW |
TRUMP PCT NOW |
| ARIZONA |
48.7 |
4.3 |
44.4 |
| FLORIDA |
49.9 |
5.9 |
44.0 |
| MICHIGAN |
49.9 |
7.7 |
42.2 |
| MINNESOTA |
50.4 |
5.4 |
44.0 |
| PENNSYLVANIA |
49.9 |
6.0* |
44.0 |
| WISCONSIN |
50.0 |
6.8* |
43.3 |
..* ROUNDING
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NATIONAL POLLING
| POLL |
BIDEN PCT |
BIDEN LEAD |
TRUMP PCT |
| NATIONAL NOW |
51.0 |
8.6 |
42.4 |
| NATIONAL WORST SINCE JUNE 6TH |
49.8 |
7.0 |
42.8 |
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Now, I included the percentage of the vote and I want you to look at those numbers. We say that the incumbent is in trouble when the incumbent is below fifty percent because typically undecideds go against the incumbent 2 to 1 because the incumbent is well known and if the undecided voter liked the incumbent, they would already have chosen him. This is even more true of as polarizing a figure as the Orange Bigoted Incompetent Narcissist. However, when the well known challenger is at 50%, then the incumbent is in grave danger and there is not another kind. Here’s the real point : if Biden is at 50% in these states on election day, then Trump can’t win those states. So, starting with 50% in these states as the status quo is a very good place to start. It means that if Biden retains this vote percentage in these states, then Trump can’t win them and these states are more than enough to give him the 270 electoral college votes he needs to win the election. Furthermore, he’s leading by 5.9 percent in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. I know Minnesota looks closer than some would think, but Biden is at 50.4% there and Secretary Hillary Clinton won it last time. Trump isn’t going to win Minnesota.
We need to make sure that we hold on to these states this time. Since June 14th, Biden has been up 6 points or more in Wisconsin. Since June 25th, Biden has been up 6 or more points in Pennsylvania. Since June 6th, Biden has been up 5 points or more in Minnesota. In Minnesota when Biden was temporarily below 50% (he got down to 49.6%), he was leading by more than 7 points. Since June 6th, Biden has led by 7 or more points in Michigan. Since June 15th, Biden has been leading in Florida by 5 or more points.
So, his worst case scenario in these states is Biden up at least 5 points in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and that lead has held since June 16th. He has been at 49.6% or better in Minnesota since June 6th and at or above 48.5% in Florida since June 13th . In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Biden has been up 6 points or more since June 25th. He has been at 48.4% or better in Wisconsin since June 14th. Generally speaking, he has been between 49% and 50% in Wisconsin. He has been at 49.1% or better since June 25th in Pennsylvania. Generally speaking, he has mostly been between 49% and 50% in Pennsylvania. . He has generally been between 49% and 50% in Michigan, typically closer to 50% or above.
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Leads in Swing States
| states |
min lead |
since |
min pct of vote |
since |
trump 2016 |
trump now |
| florida |
5.1 |
6/13 |
48.5 |
6/13 |
48.6 |
44.0 |
| MICHIGAN |
7.0 |
6/6 |
48.5 |
6/1 |
47.3 |
42.2 |
| MINNESOTA |
5.1 |
6/6 |
49.6 |
6/6 |
44.9 |
45.0 |
| pennsylvania |
5.0 |
6/16 |
48.8 |
6/16 |
48.2 |
44.0 |
| wisconsin |
6.4 |
6/13 |
48.4 |
6/14 |
47.2 |
43.3 |
.Several observations are in order: Biden has had a lead in the average of the polls of at least 5 points and at least 48.4% of the vote in all of Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since June 16th, more than two straight continuous months. Biden’s minimum percentage since June 16th has been greater than Trump’s actual percentage of the vote in 2016 with the exception of Florida where Biden’s lowest percentage since June 16th is one tenth of a point less than the percentage of the vote that Trump earned in 2016.
Trump’s actual vote percentage in Michigan was 47.3%. Trump’s actual vote percentage in Wisconsin was 47.2% . Trump’s actual vote percentage in Pennsylvania was 48.2%. So, Biden’s worst numbers in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since the end of June were better than Trump’s actual vote percentage against Clinton in 2016 before Trump managed to kill of more than 170,000 of his fellow citizens and put more than 10% of them out of work. Doing those two things likely didn’t make him any more popular ; his numbers in 2016 are likely to be better than those this time around. Now, Trump did do amazingly well in beating the bushes and getting the hidden bigot vote out in force in Florida in 2016, but Florida’s seniors haven’t taken well to Trump’s efforts to kill them. Having said that, Trump only got to 48.6% in Florida against Clinton in 2016. Trump’s number in 2016 is one tenth of one percent better than Biden’s worst number .
Biden is beginning this election in earnest in a good place in the electoral college. His swing state numbers have been very strong and very consistent. Bottom line, Biden needs to guard against erosion of these numbers. If he keeps them, he clearly wins the electoral college. This is an excellent place to start the election. A five point lead and pretty close to 50% for around two straight months in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Since this is in the average of polls and this is true for around two months, then this is how the electorate feels about these two candidates. One poll could be an outlier. An average of polls gives us a snapshot of how the electorate feels about the two candidates at one specific point in time. The average of polls for two months is how the electorate generally feels about the two candidates.
Now, let’s consider the national lead which is not entirely irrelevant since a strong enough lead nationally brings the electoral college with it. Biden is up 8.6% in the 538 aggregate of the polls. Since June 6th, Biden has been up 7 or more points in the average of the national polls. Biden has also been at or above 49.8% since June 6th as well. Biden is above 51% now. Trump only won 46.1% of the vote in 2016. No incumbent in modern times has come from being behind in the average of polls by 7 or more points lasting through the middle of August to win.
Believing the truth about the polls doesn’t mean that one won’t do everything one can to help Biden / Harris win ! Nobody will be complacent until Trump is out of office and hopefully in prison. It is certainly possible that the polls could narrow prior to election day. We currently have the support of people who have typically voted for republicans. On the other hand, the reason we have the support of these people is that Trump’s ugliness has turned them away from him and because Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic has led to such horrible outcomes, over 170,000 Americans dead and over 42 million Americans had to file unemployment claims.
American researchers within WHO warned Trump of how dangerous this novel coronavirus is in 2019 as did the nation’s intelligence agencies on January 3. Trump was warned in the presidential daily briefings about the dangerous nature of the novel coronavirus. Trump’s hand picked HHS Secretary, Secretary Azar, warned Trump how dangerous the virus and Trump called him “an alarmist”. Joe Biden warned Trump and America how dangerous it was in an opinion editorial on January 27th in the USA Today. Trump had access to some of the best epidemiologists and experts in the world. He had access to experts than nobody else had access to or as good access to because as head of the executive branch he had access to NIH, NIAID, HHS, FEMA, CDC, CIA, NSA, and Dr. Fauci.
Trump made decisions based upon his narcissism that caused huge numbers of Americans to die. Trump refused to take the lead or the spotlight in the response to the novel coronavirus because he was afraid that if it didn’t go well, he would lose re-election. He refused to ramp up testing because he was afraid that if he ramped up testing, the official case numbers would go up and he would lose re-election. He refused to call for a stay at home order because he was afraid that this would hurt the economy and that would mean he would lose re-election. Trump was afraid to keep the stay at home order on because he was afraid the economy would not rebound and this would mean that he would lose re-election. All of these were serious mistakes and it cost Americans dearly.
The president needed to step up and take the lead in the response for several reasons. First, the pandemic hit the whole country. Therefore, it couldn’t be elected officials who only represent a state or a congressional district. Second, people voted for the office of president across the entire country. Third, states have smaller budgets and can’t deficit spend ; the federal government has a larger budget and can deficit spend. Fourth, Trump had access as head of the executive branch to the best epidemiologists in the world and the NIH, NIAID, FEMA, HHS, CDC, and the nation’s intelligence agencies. Fifth, republican voters were only going to pay attention to what Donald Trump said and did, not what epidemiologists said. Sixth, the response needed to be uniform. If strong states gave strong restrictions and mandated mask wearing in public, mandated social distancing, didn’t allow patrons to go inside of bars and restaurants, and didn’t allow public gatherings of more than five people and weak adjacent, contiguous states had no restrictions, then the virus would simply move from the strong state to the weak state.
Trump, therefore, needed to step up and call for a stay at home order in early February, close businesses, mandate and model mask wearing and social distancing, order enough ppe and ventilators, ramp up testing, build a large, expert contact tracing team, and create a group with epidemiologists and business leaders to develop plans on how to re-open businesses safely. Testing doesn’t make one pregnant and it doesn’t give one the novel coronavirus. It simply reveals reality. Without testing, we don’t know where the virus was, where it is, where the epicenters are, and where it is going. We shouldn’t have only four percent of the world’s population and twenty five percent of the world’s official cases and deaths. We also shouldn’t see the resolved mortality rate at six percent. A case is resolved when it ends in either of the final two possibilities, a death or a recovery. The resolved mortality rate is calculated simply be dividing the number of deaths by the sum of the number of deaths and the number of recovered people. A six percent resolved mortality rate means that we are not even remotely close to how much testing we should be doing. Without sufficient testing, we can’t be doing contact tracing. At this point, trying to contact trace with 5 million official cases, two million official active cases, millions more active cases that are not yet official, a population of 331 million people, and the array of transportation options in this country, is not logistically possible.
Trump’s mismanagement of the novel coronavirus is likely the dominant factor in the election. We are likely to have around 250,000 deaths by the time November 3rd arrives.
Biden is in a very strong position and we need to keep him there !
Saturday, Aug 22, 2020 · 3:48:05 AM +00:00 · Dem
An argument was made that we normally win the popular vote by 8.6% and we normally win Florida by 6%. I think it is clear that this is simply not true. Within the context of the very polarized electorate that we have had for some time now and continue to have, the pandemic that we have has moved the voters who could be moved. This is why we are leading in the average of polls by 8.6% nationally and by 6% in Florida. And if an argument is made about a lead in 2016, the retort is simple: we have had a lead of seven points or more in the AVERAGE of polls for more than two straight continuous months. This was NOT true in 2016, not even close. A lead of seven points IN THE AVERAGE of polls for over two straight months tells us how the electorate feels about these two candidates in this election. This lead is reality.
Saturday, Aug 22, 2020 · 6:22:21 AM +00:00 · Dem
My next diary that will be coming up tomorrow has a textbook example of misogyny from an rvat . Margaret in Michigan didn’t vote in 2016 for Hillary Clinton because she didn’t want the first woman president to be represented as having too much baggage. She admits she has a double standard.
The people who don’t regret not voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are members of the “Won’t Burn My Left Hand Too ! “ voters. A member of the “Won’t Burn My Left Hand Too “ voter uploaded her video that had a discussion between her and a friend. The friend asks the “Won’t Burn My Left Hand Too” voter , “So, what is your position ? Are you a person who is a member of the “Won’t Burn My Left Hand Too “ ? “ The person says, “Yes, I am a member of the “Won’t Burn My Left Hand Too “ group !” The friend asks, “So, why are you a member of the “Won’t Burn My Left Hand Too” ? “ The person says, “Because if I place my left hand on a burner that is on and hot, it will burn the shit out of my left hand and it will hurt like crazy “ The friend asks, “So, how do you know that if you put your left hand on a burner that is on and hot, that it is a mistake and that it will burn the shit out of your hand and it will hurt like crazy ? “ The person replies, “Because I put my right hand on a burner that was on and hot and it burned the shit out of my right hand and it hurt like crazy” The friend asks, “So, do you think it was a mistake to put your right hand on the burner when it was on and hot ? “ The person responds, “Oh hell no ! That was a matter of honor and dignity and principle and it was absolutely the right thing to do to put my right hand on the burner when it was on and hot” .
These people drive me insane. How do they know that it would be a terrible mistake to allow Donald Trump to win re-election ? Because of what he did in his first term. But if what he did in his first term was so awful that he should not be allowed to win re-election, then why would it not also mean that it was a mistake to let him win election in the first place ?
Thus, it is pure dumbfuckery. But then when we add on to that, a huge scoop of misogyny by applying a standard of “not too much baggage” for a female candidate but not to the male candidates, then I am completely lost .
