Hurricane Laura has intensified into a Category 3 storm and is still growing stronger. It now appears the storm may strike the coast as a Category 4 storm, bringing high winds, intense rain, and a devastating storm surge that will plow into the coast near the Texas-Louisiana border on Wednesday night.
Last week, as forecasters were looking at the novel circumstance of having two tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, it was clear that “predictable” didn’t exactly define what was ahead. Both predictions of intensity and the course taken by storms has changed repeatedly as models and modelers have struggled to deal with this genuinely unprecedented situation. But if Laura first became well-known as part of a double act, it’s what the storm is going to do on its own that could leave a lasting memory.
Wednesday, Aug 26, 2020 · 5:57:33 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Hurricane Laura has once again exceeded expectations and has already reached Category 4 strength with sustained winds at 140 mph. Time is very, very short for anyone still in the area to get out. If you need help, please reach out. Do not remain near the coast in the path of this storm.
Over the course of several days, tropical depression 14 became tropical storm Marco, then Hurricane Marco, then faded back to remnants as it reached the Louisiana coast. That final result—which saw the storm losing intensity and organization before making landfall—was a relief, especially as the intensification into a hurricane over the Gulf exceeded initial forecasts and a large pool of water above 90 degrees seemed to offer rocket fuel for storms. A few areas were subject to tropical storm-force winds, and local rainfall reached six inches, but overall Marco simply fell apart before becoming a major disaster.
Don’t expect the same from Hurricane Laura. Throughout the week as the storm has crossed Cuba and entered the Gulf, each round of forecasts has seemed to call for more intensity than the last—and still fallen short of reality. Rather than striking the coast as a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane as forecasts indicated over the weekend, Laura has already intensified into a major Category 3 storm overnight. And it now seems likely that it will come roaring into the Texas-Louisiana coast as a Category 4 storm with winds over 130 miles per hour, a powerful storm surge, and as much as 15” of additional rain.
Former tropical storm Marco didn’t turn into a disaster on its own, but it has made sure that rivers and streams are already running full in advance of Laura’s approach. That’s part of why authorities have asked over 500,000 people near the coast between Houston, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana to seek shelter from Laura’s approach.
On Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center has a hurricane warning in effect for the Gulf Coast running from south of Galveston around the curve to Vermillion Bay. In addition to very strong winds, locally heavy rains, and the possibility of tornadoes, the weather service is now warning that Laura’s approach could bring with it a “catastrophic” storm surge. The storm surge warning runs from Freeport, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The surge near landfall—now expected to be somewhere east of Port Arthur—could be as great as 15’. The threat extends to towns not only directly on the coast, but located along bays and rivers nearby.
The storm is large, with hurricane-force winds extended out over 70 miles from a well-organized eye. Current wind speeds are in excess of 115 miles per hour, and Laura continues to intensify over waters that are abnormally warm due to climate change. Though the storm is not currently expected to make a head-on assault against a major city like Houston or New Orleans, it’s a threat to a broad area and brings the potential of flooding far inland.
As the Associated Press reports, large numbers of people are already on the move in an attempt to clear the storm’s path. That includes over 385,000 people warned to evacuate Beaumont, Galveston, and Port Arthur, Texas and over 200,000 ordered out of low-lying parishes in southwest Louisiana. The predicted storm surge could easily overtop levies and sea walls in some areas, and the flooding from heavy rains could threaten additional structures—even those undamaged by the high winds the storm is expected to bring at landfall.
All of these evacuations are complicated by COVID-19 as those being evacuated are forced into shelters or hotels at a time when the number of cases and deaths in the region remains high. On Tuesday, Texas reported another 6,800 new cases of the virus and 206 deaths. Louisiana has been more successful in containing the virus after a devastating initial surge, but the disruptions from storms like Laura offers the potential to create new outbreaks.
Predicted path of Major Hurricane Laura as of Wednesday morning.
As it heads inland, Laura could trigger additional flooding across several states. Overnight tornado watches along the path of the storm extend east into Mississippi.
Forecasters have warned that 2020 is likely to be a “extremely active” with 24 named storms predicted.
