As of the 700PM CT update from the National Weather Service, Hurricane Laura was carrying sustained winds over 150mph. That puts it close to the border for Category 5, but even if it doesn’t cross that line, this is an extremely dangerous storm. Predictions now call for a 15’ storm surge over 100 miles of coastline, with a surge as high as 20’ near the point of impact. Finding the right level of concern for this is difficult, even for the NHC, but they put in every adjective in the book to try to get it across. The storm will produce:
"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage."
Another way to look at it … this is a 20’ wave that will crash 30 miles inward, driven by 150 mph winds and carrying the flotsam of every damn thing in its path. Do not be in its path. If you are in the area of impact, run, do not walk, to the nearest vehicle and get away. If you need help, there are actually air lifts going on from some area airports. Call. Find help. Get out. Please.
No matter how many storms you have ridden out in the past, do not try to ride out this one. No amount of experience is going to teach you to breath underwater. Landfall will occur overnight. Tropical storm force winds are already reaching the coast.
Thursday, Aug 27, 2020 · 1:32:13 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
For reference, even though Katrina was a monster Cat 5 out in the Gulf, it weakened as it neared shore. It hit Louisiana as a Category 3 storm, with top winds around 125mph. Laura is currently carrying winds above 150, and is still intensifying. Thank goodness it is not aimed at a major city, but … damn, I feel for anyone who has their home in the region.
Thursday, Aug 27, 2020 · 2:56:53 AM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
At 10:00 PM CT, the National Hurricane Center continued to categorize top wind speed at 150 mph and indicated that core pressure had (very) slightly increased over the last hour. Still, it’s possible that we may be done with the word “intensifying.” That’s something.
It really wasn’t expected to be this way. Last week, when it looked as if tropical storms Marco and Laura were going to be in the Gulf at the same time, it appeared that both would top out as no more than Category 1 hurricanes. The biggest concern at the time was for the amount of flash flooding that might be generated from the rain of two storms in the same area just a day apart. But Marco and Laura turned out to nothing at all alike. The first storm fell apart before reaching the coast, collapsing below even tropical storm levels and delivering little but stiff breezes and a slug of rain. But tonight, Laura is going to come roaring ashore as a fully formed monster — huge, powerful, and driving a battering ram of water.
If you are anywhere in the colored area of this map, even the orange area, do not be there. Go.
Multiple towns and small cities could be completely inundated if the forecast proves accurate. Towns like Cameron and Hackberry could be under 9 feet of water. And this will not be a slowly rising flood. It is just going to be there, choked with debris and arriving like a thunderclap.
In some past storms, the NHC has overestimated the height and extent of storm surge — and there are good reasons to take the most pessimistic possible numbers and get them out there — we can hope that’s the case this time. But the low estimates on the current forecast are still going to be devastating for a huge area.
The area between Port Arthur and Lake Charles is a favorite area for retired couples who live in RVs at least part of the year. There are a huge number of RV parks across the area that, when full, host thousands. We can only hope that all of them tucked in their awnings, cranked the engines and got out of there days ago. At this point, it’s hard to stop looking at satellite imagery of vacation homes and small communities along the coast. Some of them look positively idyllic, but it’s very hard to see how many of them will not be absolutely removed within the next few hours.
And just to make it clear that even in the midst of disaster, on disaster, on disaster … the RNC is going on as scheduled and Donald Trump has already announced he has no plans to delay his speech on Thursday.
