Do polls undercount Trump support like COVID deaths

Lincoln Project ad depicts 175,000 caskets as 'Trump's wall'... The digital spot begins with text on a black screen saying that “America now leads the world in COVID deaths” followed by more text that reads, “More than 175,000 Americans are dead.” The advertisement designates those who have died from the disease as “friends & colleagues” and “sisters, brothers, mothers & fathers” as a picture of the U.S.-Mexico border appears behind. The spot then calculates how far 175,000 physical bodies lined "end to end" would go, saying they would "span" more than 182 miles. It then claims "Trump is building his wall" before adding that it's "just not the one he promised." An illustration of caskets lined up at the border then appears, overlaid by the declaration “Trump’s wall **paid for with 175,000+ American lives** (The Hill)

The strangest thing is the GOP attempt to con the nation into forgetting about a massive and avoidable death toll.  

If this makes you feel rage, then you’ve got to vote. pic.twitter.com/hnFgB4lbUX

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2020

In polling, there’s still too much horse-racing as “gap-tightening” memes abound on the most boring night of the RNC. The reality is likely different, much like the determination of the Trump campaign to frame America as 1968 cultural chaos.

You get the sense the Trump campaign really, really expected to run against Bernie Sanders, and when Joe Biden won, they just kept the old plan.

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) August 27, 2020

the country with complete and total nonsense talk. @ProjectLincoln

— Steve Schmidt (@SteveSchmidtSES) August 27, 2020

Steve Schmidt says polls undercount Trump support, But the Hill insists there are even more “shy” Trump voters.

We have to fight every day like we're behind — because we may be without even realizing it.https://t.co/XdA48h5ByL

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2020

One of the GOP founders of the anti-Trump group The Lincoln Project said Wednesday that polls undercount the level of support that exists for President Trump.

“It is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent president, No. 1,” Steve Schmidt, a former adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. “I suspect there is at least a point or two of undercount for Trump voters.”

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a healthy lead in national polls. Biden has smaller leads in most of the six core battleground states, although recent surveys have found the race is tightening.

[….]

The polling outlet Trafalgar Group, which was the only pollster to show Trump ahead in Michigan on Election Day in 2016, seeks to account for this so-called social desirability effect in its polls. The lead pollster there has told The Hill there are more “silent” Trump voters in 2020 than there were in 2016.

thehill.com/...

This poll doesn't show "closing gap" at all. Compare it to the recent poll from this pollster. pic.twitter.com/MzqTsKjMDY

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) August 26, 2020

Some critical context: the 2016 polls were not weighted for non-college education as the 2020 polls are and also, less undecided nows https://t.co/3mTASoIRXu

— Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌 (@RachelBitecofer) August 25, 2020

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

Fox News right now... pic.twitter.com/zWhfPwUi7M

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) August 27, 2020

Let me get this straight. A Black man is shot in the back 7 times, while getting in car with his kids. A White youth carrying an AR-15 walks away, after killing people. Same police force, same town, same week. And what is Trump’s response? Send in troops to crush the protesters.

— Robert Reich (@RBReich) August 26, 2020

Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly are ravening wolves.

Matthew 7:15

pic.twitter.com/S0V9IppaNI

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2020

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Since White House chief strategist Steve Bannon's arrest, President Trump has attempted to distance himself from We Build the Wall claiming he did not know much about it. Social media posts tell a different story.https://t.co/vF556iQZny

— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) August 27, 2020