Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/28

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Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 3:23:54 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

OH-14: EMILY’s List has endorsed Democrat Hillary O’Connor’s campaign against Republican Rep. Dave Joyce in a contest that hasn’t attracted much outside attention. Last cycle, Joyce turned back a credible opponent 55-45 in a suburban Cleveland seat that moved from 51-48 Romney to 54-42 Trump. The incumbent ended June with a $1.4 million to $158,000 cash-on-hand lead over O'Connor, who is an attorney and retired Navy pilot.

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 3:38:20 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

NY-02: Democrat Jackie Gordon is airing her first TV spot of the general election. As photos of her time in the Army fill the screen, Gordon tells the audience, “When I was 20 years old, the Army said ‘Be All That You Can Be.’ Not just SOME of what you can be … but all of it.”

She continues, “I’ve been a military police officer and a guidance counselor. I’ve served under Democrats and Republicans. I’ve been to basic and I’ve taught yoga.” Gordon concludes, “All of us, we’re more than just one thing. When we serve something greater than ourselves … we’re being ALL that we can be.”

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 7:11:09 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

CA-48: Republican Michelle Steel uses her opening general election ad to tout herself as a proven conservative who “took on Sacramento and returned $400 million to taxpayers.” The narrator goes on to laud her as a candidate who will “stand strong against do-nothing Washington politicians, and take on communist China, bringing back jobs.”

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 7:20:45 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

NY-24: Republican Rep. John Katko and the NRCC have been airing ads arguing that Democrat Dana Balter’s healthcare plan is far to the left of what Joe Biden supports, and Balter is now up with a response spot.

The commercial dismisses Katko’s attacks as false, declaring, “Joe Biden wasn’t talking about Dana Balter’s plan.” The narrator then reads from Biden’s statement endorsing Balter, saying, “I strongly endorse Dana Balter because working families deserve leaders who will make quality health care more accessible.” The rest of the ad goes after Katko for trying to undermine the Affordable Care Act.

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 7:56:05 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

AK State House: More votes have been counted from Alaska’s Aug. 18 primary, and a second Republican member of the bipartisan House Majority Caucus has lost renomination. Thomas McKay beat state Rep. Chuck Kopp 61-39 in HD-24, an Anchorage seat that went for Trump by a 52-40 margin. The Democratic nominee is Sue Levi, who lost to Kopp 59-41 in 2016 and was defeated 60-39 two years later.

However, things look better for fellow Majority Caucus member Steve Thompson, though the AP has not yet called his GOP primary. With 850 votes in, Thompson leads challenger Dave Selle 52-48, which is an improvement from the 51-49 edge the incumbent enjoyed on election night.

The Majority Caucus is currently made up of 15 Democrats, two independents, and five Republicans, while 16 mainstream Republicans sit in the House Minority Caucus. National Republicans made a strong effort to unseat Republican members of the coalition in their primaries, and in addition to Thompson, they defeated Jennifer Johnston. The final two GOP coalition members, Bart Lebon and Louise Stutes, were renominated without any opposition.

Another seat in the 40-member state House is held by Republican state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a former member of the Majority Caucus who now isn’t part of any alliance, but she won’t be in the legislature much longer. The AP has called the GOP primary for challenger David Nelson, who beat LeDoux 67-33. HD-15, which is in Anchorage, backed Trump 52-38, and the Democrats are running Lyn Franks. The final seat in the chamber was held by Gary Knopp, a Republican in the Majority Caucus who died last month and posthumously lost renomination to Ron Gillham, who earned the endorsement of the local GOP back in June.

Finally, state Rep. David Eastman, who is part of the House Minority Caucus but has been a pain for its leaders, still leads his Republican primary, though there’s no AP call yet. With 2,800 votes in, Eastman leads primary foe Jesse Sumner 52-48, which is the same margin he led by on election night.

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 9:00:53 PM +00:00 · David Nir

MI-Sen: The Republican pollster Trafalgar Group just released its first downballot poll of the 2020 general election, and if you're wondering why it's the first poll since the start of the pandemic—and just the third survey ever—to find Republican John James leading in Michigan's Senate race, that's because a highly questionable assumption is powering the firm's methodology.

Trafalgar gained notice after the 2016 elections for being one of the few pollsters to predict that Donald Trump would win the key swing states that proved crucial to his Electoral College victory, including Michigan. The outfit's founder, Robert Cahaly, argued he was able to do so by accounting for so-called "shy" Trump voters—those who, due to an alleged "social desirability bias," are reluctant to tell pollsters that they support Donald Trump.

However, Trafalgar's approach didn't fare all that well two years later. In the dozen polls the firm made public in the last two weeks before the 2018 midterms, nine were too favorable to the GOP, including one that predicted Republican Brian Kemp would win the Georgia governor's race by 12 points (he prevailed by just 1 point). On average, Trafalgar missed by 5 points and outright called three races incorrectly, including the contests for Senate in Arizona and both Senate and governor in Nevada.

Cahaly is nonetheless sticking to his thesis, even though every serious analysis has rejected the notion that these supposedly "shy" Trump voters actually exist. (For more on this topic—and what was really behind the 2016 polling miss—see Huffpost's Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN's Harry Enten and the New York Times' Nate Cohn.) As a result, Trafalgar sees Trump leading Joe Biden 47-45 and James edging out Democratic Sen. Gary Peters 48-47, a finding at odds even with James’ own recent polling, which had him down 49-44.

Trafalgar could of course be right and everyone else wrong. But even if it succeeded where most others failed in 2016, the opposite obtained in 2018, when the bulk of polling forecast a Democrat landslide—and that's precisely what unfolded.

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 10:05:44 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Ad Roundup:

• AZ-Sen: Martha McSally (R-inc) (here and here)

Friday, Aug 28, 2020 · 10:14:36 PM +00:00 · David Nir

Election Changes

• Mississippi: Voting rights advocates, including the NAACP, have filed a federal lawsuit asking that Mississippi officials allow all voters to request absentee ballots without presenting an excuse. The plaintiffs also want the state's requirement that absentee voters have their ballots notarized to be waived, and they further ask that voters to be given the chance to correct any problems that would otherwise lead to their ballots getting disqualified. A similar suit backed by the ACLU is pending in state court.

• New Jersey: New Jersey's Democratic-run legislature has passed a bill to conduct the November general election by mail, though at least one in-person polling place will be open in each of the state's 565 municipalities. Previously, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy issued an executive order for an all-mail election, but Republicans challenged the move in court, arguing that Murphy had usurped lawmakers' authority.

This new legislation, therefore, is an attempt to render those that lawsuit moot. A similar move succeeded earlier this year in California after Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered the November election be run by mail, prompting a Republican challenge that was derailed when legislators ratified Newsom's actions by passing their own bill to do the same thing.