The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MA-01: Democratic Rep. Richie Neal earned a high-profile endorsement from an unlikely source as Massachusetts' Republican governor, Charlie Baker, waded into Neal's hotly contested primary battle with Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse on the same day that a new poll found the congressman leading his challenger with just days to go.
On behalf of the news site Jewish Insider, a survey from RABA Research put Neal up 49-40 on Morse ahead of Tuesday's primary. That result was not far off from the only other poll we've seen of the race, a mid-August Morse internal from Beacon Research that had Neal ahead by a 46-41 spread.
But it was Baker's last-minute involvement that generated the most headlines. In almost any other state, an endorsement from a governor of the opposite party would be toxic to anyone facing a primary challenge—just try to imagine Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis going to bat for a Sunshine State Democrat. Baker, however, may well be an asset for the incumbent.
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That's because he's successfully portrayed himself as a moderate throughout his tenure, so much so that he's usually enjoyed strong ratings from Democratic voters, especially during the coronavirus pandemic. Even more importantly, Baker is very popular with registered independents, who represent more than half of the state's voters and always make up a large share of the Democratic primary vote. (Massachusetts allows voters who aren't registered with a party to pick which primary they'll participate in.) In fact, only 54% of primary voters were registered Democrats in RABA's sample, while the balance were independents.
RABA did not ask about Baker in its poll, but there's good reason to think that he'll be very well liked with the people who show up on Tuesday. A recent survey from Suffolk University found the governor with a mighty 81-10 favorable rating among Democratic primary voters statewide, and his numbers in this western Massachusetts district likely aren't dramatically different. Indeed, back in 2018, Baker carried this district by the same 67-33 margin that he earned statewide.
But Morse, who is campaigning as a progressive alternative to Neal, is hoping that Baker's endorsement will turn voters off from the incumbent. Morse responded to the news saying, "I'm not surprised to see Governor Baker's tweet, because those who are satisfied with the status quo are supporting Richie Neal."
Senate
● AL-Sen: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones' new commercial once again highlights the scandal that destroyed Republican Tommy Tuberville's old hedge fund. This time, several people ask, "If Tuberville didn't protect his investors from fraud, how can we trust him?" They go on to praise Jones as someone who "fights for the little guy."
● CO-Sen: Democrat John Hickenlooper's new commercial stars Jesusio Silva, a chef whose brother worked for Hickenlooper. Silva says that his brother became a quadriplegic after he was hit by a drunk driver while biking, but explains that Hickenlooper "made sure he stayed in a company health care for four more years." Silva continues, "I've seen these ads attacking John. Do you want to know more about John Hickenlooper's character? Come to see me."
● MA-Sen: Rep. Joe Kennedy's new commercial for next week's Democratic primary features several people praising him as an effective and caring public servant who cares about racial equality and LGBTQ youth. Speaker Nancy Pelosi also makes an appearance and declares, "He knows that, to achieve progressive change, you must be on the front lines."
House
● GA-06: A poll from the Democratic firm GQR for End Citizens United, which is supporting Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, finds her leading Republican Karen Handel 50-47. The sample also shows Joe Biden ahead 52-45 in this suburban Atlanta district that Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2016. The only other recent survey we've seen was a late July poll from North Star Opinion Research for the NRCC that had McBath ahead 48-46, which is very close to what GQR shows now; the NRCC, though, did not release presidential numbers.
● IN-05: Republican Victoria Spartz has launched her first TV commercial for the general election, which reporter Adam Wren says is running for 1,000 gross ratings points (a term we explain here). The narrator declares that Spartz "grew up in Eastern Europe, and built the American dream in Indiana, becoming a CPA, business owner, and state senator." The commercial also lauds her for having "challenged the political establishment, bringing people together for major healthcare reforms."
● MO-02: Republican Rep. Ann Wagner recently used her first TV ad to portray Democrat Jill Schupp as weak on public safety, an argument that PolitiFact's Tom Kertscher says is false and "cherry picks votes, ignoring a number of other legislative actions Schupp took to try to strengthen laws against sex offenders."
In the ad, the narrator declares that in the legislature, Schupp "supported legislation that would have given hundreds of sex offenders a clean slate, letting them live near schools and roam freely on our kids' playgrounds."
Kertscher explains that this 2013 bill, which overwhelmingly passed the GOP-led legislature, "would have provided for anyone who was under 18 when convicted to be removed from the state's sex offender registry." The courts would have needed to grant their petitions, and offenders would have needed to wait five years before they could leave the registry. Ultimately, the legislation was vetoed by then-Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon, and the legislature did not try to override him.
Schupp responded to this spot by saying, "A good friend of mine was brutally murdered by a sexual predator, and I've worked hard to keep sexual predators behind bars. Instead of discussing the issues, Wagner is using the issue of sexual violence for political gain in attacks that distort my record and attempt to mislead the voters."
● TX-07: The American Chemistry Council, which supports candidates from both parties, is running a commercial praising Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's work during the pandemic.
● TX-21: Democrat Wendy Davis' allies at End Citizens United have publicized a survey from ALG Research that shows her deadlocked 46-46 with freshman Republican Rep. Chip Roy. The poll also finds Joe Biden with a 48-47 edge in this gerrymandered seat, which includes parts of Austin and San Antonio connected by Texas Hill Country, four years after Donald Trump won it 52-42.
We've seen just one other survey of this district, which, despite the best efforts of GOP map makers, has been moving to the left in recent years. Last month, Davis' campaign released a mid-July poll from Garin-Hart-Yang that found Roy up by a miniscule 46-45 edge as Biden led 50-47.
● VA-07: The DCCC is airing its first spot against Nick Freitas, who won the Republican nomination to face freshman Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger at a convention last month. The narrator declares that Freitas "raked in thousands from the insurance industry, and supports a plan letting insurance companies deny coverage for pre-existing conditions like asthma or diabetes."
The ad continues, "And the health care law protecting Virginia families during this crisis? Freitas called it a 'cancer.'" Indeed, during Freitas' unsuccessful 2018 run for the Senate, he used that very word to describe the Affordable Care Act, which he baselessly argued was built to fail so that its architects could replace it with a national healthcare system.
Election Changes
● Texas: Election officials in Harris County, which, as home to Houston, is the largest county in Texas and third-biggest in the country, say they will send absentee ballot applications to all 2.4 million voters for the November general election. The move is particularly notable because Texas is one of just six states that will require an excuse to vote absentee in November.
However, officials in Travis County had noted on their website as recently as Wednesday: "A voter who requests a mail ballot on the grounds of disability will be accepted as eligible for a mail ballot. Our office has no legal authority to administratively require voters to substantiate their disability at the time the application is submitted." That language, though, has since been removed.
Other Races
● AR Ballot: On Thursday, the Arkansas Supreme Court sided with Republican Secretary of State John Thurston and disqualified a pair of ballot initiatives that would have set up a top-four primary system and created an independent redistricting commission. The two campaigns promoting the measures said afterwards that they were "evaluating our legal options."
The justices ruled that both campaigns didn't follow a 2019 law drawn up by the Republican legislature that requires campaigns "to verify that their paid canvassers had passed criminal-background checks." The groups certified that they had "acquired" such checks, but the justices agreed with Thurston that this was not the same thing as their canvassers having "passed" them."
Earlier this week, the Supreme Court in North Dakota also removed a measure from that state's ballot that would have both set up a top-four primary and an independent redistricting commission. However, voters in Alaska still have the chance this fall to make their state the first in the nation to implement the top-four. This system would require all candidates from all parties to face off on one primary ballot, with the four highest vote-getters advancing. In the general election, voters would then be able to rank their choices using instant-runoff voting.
Grab Bag
● Netroots Nation: Our Netroots Nation elections Q&A panel is now on YouTube!
Jeff Singer, Matt Booker, Carolyn Fiddler, and Stephen Wolf from Daily Kos were joined earlier this month by Sister District co-founder Lala Wu, and we discussed this year's House, Senate, and legislative playing field; next week's Massachusetts Senate primary; gerrymandering; the House contests Democrats should target in case the presidential contest were to get decided by Congress; and much more.
Ad Roundup
