These latest national polls are giving us an early glimpse to the realization that the two conventions appear to show a persistent Biden lead over Donald Trump, and that at its worst the conventions have not moved the needle much, that the race is stable as can be. That is a good thing for Biden and Democrats, and not good for Trump and Republicans, with just 67 days to go before Nov. 3.
Let’s start with the latest USC Dornsife tracking poll. This poll is of 2,544 likely voters and it was in the field from August 21 through August 27. So, this poll was conducted immediately following the Democratic convention and through yesterday, the last day of the RNC convention.
election.usc.edu
The result: Biden 54%, Trump 40%. With rounding it results in a 15% Biden lead.
USC Dornsife conducts a daily tracking poll. When we look at the graph of this daily poll we see a widening of Biden’s lead as a result of the DNC convention:
The rolling tracking poll showed its closest margin between Biden and Trump on 8/21 when Biden’s lead over Trump was 9%.
This was based on polling from Aug. 15 through Aug. 21. After the 21st Biden expanded his lead over Trump due to a successful DNC convention showing a bounce. It was an 11% margin on August 22nd, a 13% margin on August 23rd, a 16% margin on August 24th, a 16% margin on August 25th, a 15% margin on August 26th and again a 15% margin on August 27th.
As of this morning Biden is at 54.24% and Trump is at 39.68%.
We will see in the next few days if there is a tightening again, based on reactions to the RNC convention. If there is it will probably at worst go back to the 9%, 10% margin we saw before both conventions, suggesting that on balance the conventions had no effect on the overall polling numbers at all. As for now Biden enjoys a 15% lead in this tracking poll.
news.usc.edu/…
Methodology:
The poll consists of about 6,000 eligible voters from across the country. Together, they comprise a representative sample of the U.S. population. Every day, roughly 430 of them are invited to answer four online questions in the Daybreak Poll. Each day just after midnight, researchers update the results, which are based on a week’s worth of responses.
Daily tracking chart updates: At the end of each day, tracking graphs will be updated to reflect the latest findings. Each point on the tracking graph represents findings from the previous seven days, among about half of the full sample.
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The second national poll out this morning is from GBAO/Navigator Research.
The topline shows a 13% Biden lead. Biden 54%, Trump 41%.
navigatorresearch.org/…
This poll was in the field from August 21st through August 24th, so right after the DNC convention.
A combined 54% chose Biden (52% solid and 2% “lean Biden”.) A combined 42% chose Trump (40% solid, 2% “lean Trump). With rounding the margin came to 13%.
GBAO’s previous poll was from 2 weeks ago and it showed a tighter race. 2 weeks ago this poll had Biden up by 52% (combined) and Trump at 43% (combined) for a 9% race. This suggests that the race has widened by 4% from 2 weeks ago favoring Biden following a successful DNC convention.
Some of the findings of this poll shows why Trump has an uphill battle for re-election. This latest poll continues to show that Trump’s approval of his handling of the Coronavirus is very low. Only 39% approve, 59% disapprove. On Trump’s handling of school re-openings approval is at 35%, disapproval at 59%. Right track/wrong track numbers for the country show “Right track” with 24%, “Wrong track” with 70%.
navigatorresearch.org/...
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These national polls are snapshots of the here and now. The intent is to measure any noticeable poll bump for either Biden and/or Trump as a result of their respective conventions. The findings of these latest national polls suggest that there was a noticeable poll bump for Biden as a result of the DNC convention. In the Dorfside poll Biden’s margin went from +9% on August 21 to +15% today, which suggests a sizable convention bump. Likewise, in the GBAO poll Biden went from a +9% margin 2 weeks ago to a 13% margin today, also a pretty sizable bump up for Biden, likely as a result of the DNC convention. As the RNC convention just concluded we will see in the coming days if there was a similar bump for Trump. The USC Dornsife poll does go to August 27 and includes 3 of the 4 RNC days, but not the last day with Trump speaking. The GBAO poll does not include any impact of the RNC convention.
In my estimation the poll bump Biden and Democrats got out of the DNC convention, as can be seen in both of these polling universes, will dissipate, as will any impact, good or bad, from the RNC convention, and the race will just go back to the 9%, 10% national race we have seen for quite some time now.
Reminder: Polls can and will change. They are mere glimpses of the “here and now”. Don’t take anything for granted. GOTV, tell everyone you know to vote as if their life depended on it, because it does.
