This continues an ongoing series about the 2020 Senate elections (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here), We’ll review the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts at this time, then the polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270towin (270). Numbers are from 8/28:
Princeton Election Consortium: D 52, R 48 (updated daily, no change). MT, KS, and AK are still the Senate “Moneyball” states.
CNN (no update): 60% chance of Ds winning at least 4 seats (AZ, CO, ME, and NC are the likely pickups) while losing just 1 (AL). IA rated a 50-50 toss-up and a 40% chance for the Ds in MT and the Perdue seat in GA. This all puts the Ds at a minimum of 50 seats.
Electoral-vote.com: D 51, R 49 (updated daily; no change). D pickups are AZ, CO IA, ME, and NC; the R pickup is AL.
Rachel Bitecofer: D 50, R 46, toss-ups 4 (no update). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Special, IA, KS, and MT.
Inside Elections: D 48, R 48, toss-ups 4 (no update). Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME, MT, NC. These ratings are from July 10, so they really need to update.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 48, R 49, toss-ups 3 (no update). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 47, R 47, toss-ups 6 (no update). D pick up AZ, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: D 44, R 46, toss-ups 10 (+1 toss-ups). Toss-ups are AZ, CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MT, NC, SC. RCP really likes toss-ups; they’ve added the D seat in MN to this category, so this week we’ll look at that seat as well.
Of 8 models we’re tracking, once again none show the Rs at 50 or more seats, while 4 show 50+ seats for the Ds — exactly the same as 2 weeks ago. Control of the Senate remains very much an open question. Now for the individual races:
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +10.2 (270), D+7.4 (RCP). Kelly’s lead remains in double digits on 270.
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +9.0 (270). RCP inexplicably continues to show no polls for this race. Hickenlooper’s lead was shrinking over the last couple of months, but that trend appears to have stopped.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +6.8 (270), D +4.8 (RCP). Cunningham’s lead expands again.
MN (Smith/D vs Lewis/R): D +6.0 (270), D +3.0 (RCP). The RCP rating is based on a single poll, while 270 is based on two. We’ll keep this on the watch list and hope more polling occurs.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +5.3 (270), D +4.5 (RCP). Gideon maintains a steady lead.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +0.5 (270), D +0.3 (RCP). It doesn’t get more toss-uppy than this.
KS (Bollier/D vs Marshall/R): R +1.5 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). No change from two weeks ago.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): R +2.5 (270), R +4.0 (RCP). No meaningful movement.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): R +6.0 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). Daines has led the last 3 polls reported on 270; Bullock is definitely falling behind.
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs Collins/R): We’ll look more closely at this again as the election approaches, given the multicandidate field.
Next, the two most awful GOP senators of today:
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): R +0.5 (270). RCP has this as R +8.0, but that continues to include an old February poll with a 17-pt Graham lead. The two July polls shown average to R +3.5. Graham definitely looks very vulnerable, for a Republican in South Carolina. This is actually a little surprising to me.
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +11.0 (270); R +5.0 (RCP — but from a single poll). McConnell remains a clear favorite.
This week, please put your recommendations for contributing to Senate candidates in the comments, as well as your thoughts on any of the races. I doubt very much the DNC and RNC conventions will have any impact on Senate races — or perhaps any effects will cancel out — but we’ll see if there’s any shift in a couple of weeks.
