Pandemic Observations -- August 28, US States & Canadian Provinces (Focus on Iowa):

Clovid-19

Weekly Covid-19 deaths in the US continue their modest decline to the 6,700 level, but weekly new cases are no longer declining from the 300,000 level, and if Iowa is any indication, they may be about to go a good deal higher again. 

In my report yesterday on the Sturgis motorcycle rally earlier this month, I had speculated that the recent dramatic increase in Iowa new covid-19 cases might be similar to those also observed in South and North Dakota.  But in a Des Moines Register report today, it appears the situation is actually far worse, and directly related to the truly insane policies being pursued by Gov Kim Reynolds — particularly in forcing all school districts and colleges to open for in-person classes, and forbidding any local jurisdictions from imposing any kind of mandatory mask order at all.

School districts and colleges can supposedly apply for a “waiver” if local test positivity rates exceed 15% for at least two weeks, but as can be seen in this report, the statewide weekly test positivity rate has already jumped from just under 10% last week to over 22% this week, and according to Rachel Maddow tonight actually hit an almost unbelievable 79% on today’s tests — due largely to hundreds of returning college students testing positive.

To give a clearer picture of just how explosive this situation in Iowa is, last week they ranked only 10th in per capita weekly new cases, and their single day record was just 959.  Yesterday they blew that record away by more than 60% with 1,566 cases, and then today shattered that record by more than 60% again to 2,574 — nearly doubling their weekly per capita infection rate in just two days and  immediately vaulting the state into the dubious distinction of not just having the nation’s highest current infection rate, but the world’s as well.

If Iowa is any indication of what may be in store for other Red States trying to force their schools and colleges into reopening for in person classroom instruction despite existing infection rates, they may find themselves in a world of hurt much sooner than they could anticipate.

US States & Canadian Provinces: August 22-28

Deaths	7-Day D/1M	7-Day Deaths	Weekly Change	Change fr Max		Cases	7-Day C/1M	7-day Cases	Weekly Change	Change fr Max	Tests %Pos
Canada USA MS LA GA AZ TX SC FL NV AR ID AL IA TN CA OK WV MA RI PR NC MO NM VA OH KY IL MN MT MD IN AK HI ND NE OR MI WI KS UT WA SD PA CO DC DE NY NJ NH ME QC SK AB MB CT NS ON BC VT WY NL NB	1.2 20.2 66.8 46.7 44.6 39.8 38.4 38.1 36.5 33.1 30.8 27.4 23.9 23.7 22.3 21.5 17.9 17.9 17.9 15.1 14.7 14.5 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.3 10.3 9.6 9.2 9.2 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0	44 6,701 199 217 473 290 1,114 196 785 102 93 49 117 75 152 849 71 32 123 16 50 152 88 28 114 149 54 140 60 11 62 69 7 13 7 16 33 78 45 22 24 55 6 85 27 3 4 68 28 4 3 17 2 7 2 5 1 13 2 0 0 0 0	0% -6% 16% -15% 11% 9% -15% -23% -24% -27% 22% 26% 22% 36% -32% 1% 0% 146% 35% 78% -12% -28% -1% -22% 73% -14% -10% 4% 0% 38% 44% -27% 133% 117% -36% 7% 14% 15% 5% 29% 4% -41% -33% -30% 23% -63% -43% 62% -62% -20% 0% 13% 0% -22% -50% -29% 100% 63% -67% - -100% - -	-96% -58% -17% -53% -8% -50% -42% -43% -39% -28% -8% -4% -42% -27% -32% -17% -1% -3% -90% -87% -18% -29% -33% -61% -52% -57% -21% -83% -66% -35% -85% -84% -13% 0% -50% -64% -25% -92% -50% -42% -37% -71% -63% -93% -90% -96% -95% -99% -99% -92% -83% -98% -50% -76% -50% -99% -94% -97% -93% -100% -100% -100% -100%	Rank < 1 > < 2 > < 3 > < 4 > < 5 > < 6 > < 7 > < 8 > < 9 > <10> <11> <12> <13> <14> <15> <16> <17> <18> <19> <20> <21> <22> <23> <24> <25> <26> <27> <28> <29> <30> <31> <32> <33> <34> <35> <36> <37> <38> <39> <40> <41> <42> <43> <44> <45> <46> <47> <48> <49> <50> <51> <52> <53> <54> <55> <56> <57> <58> <59> <60> <61>	Canada USA IA ND AL SD MS KS GA TN MO AR HI TX OK ID NV IL SC FL IN KY LA CA NE PR NC MN WI MT VA UT AK MI RI MD OH DC AZ WA NM WV WY OR CO MA PA DE CT NY NJ MB AB BC ME NH VT QC ON SK NS NB NL	79 905 2,330 2,147 1,921 1,846 1,668 1,490 1,485 1,460 1,347 1,302 1,242 1,197 1,140 1,133 1,110 1,092 1,083 1,047 1,040 1,005 973 972 936 927 914 905 846 793 788 781 689 652 624 623 606 541 516 468 452 423 413 387 380 344 341 321 274 248 218 195 167 115 112 107 77 74 52 14 6 4 2	2,986 299,508 7,362 1,636 9,415 1,633 4,971 4,340 15,742 9,971 8,273 3,931 1,758 34,727 4,514 2,025 3,419 13,839 5,573 22,520 6,996 4,492 4,523 38,383 1,810 3,142 9,602 5,107 4,922 847 6,732 2,503 504 6,518 661 3,765 7,079 382 3,759 3,568 947 758 239 1,633 2,187 2,368 4,363 313 976 4,819 1,940 266 728 581 151 145 48 629 756 16 6 3 1	10% -7% 81% 42% 46% 90% -8% 42% -11% -4% 5% 21% 15% -27% -7% -7% -27% 4% 1% -25% 23% 13% -9% -18% 11% -15% -10% 16% 2% 25% 12% 1% -2% 67% -4% -6% 9% 9% -27% -7% 1% -4% -30% -10% 7% -5% -7% -27% 57% -3% -18% 42% 5% 4% -11% 36% 20% 28% 5% -70% 20% -63% 100%	-76% -38% 0% 0% -30% 0% -49% 0% -40% -43% -16% -31% 0% -53% -41% -51% -58% -23% -59% -73% -3% -2% -72% -45% -41% -30% -32% 0% -24% -9% -20% -47% -37% -18% -76% -51% -26% -73% -85% -47% -59% -22% -32% -40% -49% -85% -63% -81% -87% -93% -92% -5% -62% -2% -59% -79% -83% -92% -81% -94% -98% -95% -99%	- 22.2% 14.9% 14.6% 17.8% 12.0% 15.1% 8.9% 5.7% 13.7% 12.5% 7.6% 12.5% 8.5% 13.6% 8.2% 4.2% 24.2% 12.5% 5.1% 7.8% 5.0% 5.6% 9.7% 0.0% 6.3% 5.0% 8.4% 2.5% 6.4% 6.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.3% 2.6% 3.5% 1.7% 5.9% - 2.2% 2.6% 1.1% 5.0% 5.8% 1.6% 4.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 2.6% 1.6% 2.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Weekly New Deaths Table <   > Weekly New Cases Table

D/1M = Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Tests %Pos = Portion of current week’s tests resulting in positive (confirmed) Covid-19 case

All USA data derived from worldometer, Canadian data from Canada Covid-19 Interactive Data