According to Steve Kornaki on MSNBC, the polls sympathetic to BLM in Wisconsin have shifted so greatly, it’s scary. Like for independents’ support a change of maybe minus 40 points? The overall numbers were pretty bad too. Sorry, but writing this having just seen it, and so I can’t give you the exact numbers, but they were incredibly dramatic. It all flew by pretty fast and so I’m hoping someone else here saw this and can add in.
The comparison was between polls in June and polls now in Wisconsin regarding approval of the BLM protests---and yes of course there are other protests going on, but this is the label that is taking it in the pants in Wisconsin. There are some who think this entire election rests on Wisconsin, but that’s a whole other diary.
I also did not catch exactly what the poll organization is, although I would assume it’s an NBC poll.
So forgive me for not having all the bells and whistles of links and facts. But truth is I’ve been seeing this coming, and wrote another diary on it here a couple of days ago.
This is an old tried and true playbook that Nixon made work so well for him. As I replied to some commenters in my last diary on this subject, I lived through those times, and I am feeling the echos of what gave us Nixon after the race riots of the late 60s X 100 with Trump, who knows NO boundaries and will continue to know NO boundaries. And if anyone can stop him, I haven’t seen it yet.
It is as my diary title suggests, totally not fair or just. It makes me so sick at heart. The fact that the great majority of protestors are acting peacefully and in good faith for good reason, and with the proviso of our constitution, doesn’t matter a whole lot in these times. People can be incredibly reactionary and their number one concern is most often themselves.
It is very hard to win against an incumbent president even one like Trump it turns out. (Seriously, almost overnight, 538 has gone from a Biden likely win to a Biden, slightly favored to win. That knocked my socks off, happened so fast. ) Trump not only has the bully pulpit, he is willing to use it with no rules. And again, who has been able to stop him?
Fact is what I think I’m seeing before my very eyes, is the culture war making a big comeback, and yes, I’m very scared it will work again. I’m afraid that folks who think this is an old hat trick that won’t tip anymore may be very wrong.
So, I know it’s very hard for Biden, many cards stacked against him. But I do think his campaign has to figure out how to break thru on this culture war issue. HUGE ASK. I get that. And in a time when it is even HARDER to run against an incumbent president.
I don’t think social media or TV advertising is going to do it. I don’t think the Lincoln Project is going to do it. And I certainly don’t think our slightly bigger convention ratings are going to do it. I think we’re down to Biden and his campaign finding a way to do it, while playing by rules that Trump won’t---such as just hauling off and having a rally. Is there anyone here who doubts the power of rallies, not just for Trump, but say for Obama in both 2008 and 2012?
Yes, this is the size of the ask. Enormous. And maybe, not possible? I don’t know. I do know polls almost always tighten as the election nears. But I am seeing red flags on that before I thought I would.
Wish I had answers and not here just to bum everyone out. Welcome all thoughts and ideas. Still, Just really hoping the Biden campaign has some tricks up their sleeve, because I think we’re going to need them.
