Hello My Fellow Californians:
We interrupt this regularly scheduled Coronavirus blog to bring you a bulletin: California election confusion!
The Marin County Registrar sent me a postcard that has a space to update my election signature. Being a prepaid postcard and all, I assumed this was mandatory. A quick phone call determined it was not. Big OOPS on their part. New signature: optional.
But hey, I can’t remember if I signed my application years ago with my middle name or middle initial. If you have such problems, then update your signature — and THEN TAKE A PHOTO OF IT so your senior moments do not interfere with voting.
Nationwide, the bad people will gleefully throw out many mail-in ballots for not having signature matches. When new voters register, they should snap a picture of their signature. Easy fix. Problem solved.
Back to COVID.
BY THE NUMBERS
You know things are insane when a deadly pandemic is being pushed off the front page by even worse news. Still, there is COVID news.
Because mortality and cases are trending lower, as of Friday we have entered California Reopening 2.0.
All counties can open indoor hair salons, barbershops, retail shops, and malls. Even substantially impacted counties can open indoor dining, theaters, and gyms, with restrictions. The only major urban county that meets that criteria is San Diego. We will see how SD does. More on that later.
Numbers:
Total Cases: 712,070 (+7,383 on Monday, +2,793 Sunday)
Total Deaths: 13,019 (+83 on Monday, +27 Sunday)
Everyone got excited on Monday when the Sunday cases and mortality were so low. Because: weekend. Some counties don’t report over the weekend.
Still, cases and mortality are trending dramatically lower in most of the state.
CASE RATES — LAST 14 DAYS: How is your county doing?
State of Jefferson: doing good, bordered by counties with widespread or substantial spread. Alpine and Sierra counties win the prize for ZERO cases in the last 14 days.
SoCal: Doing better. Still, pretty high.
NorCal: Mostly better. But too high.
Inland Empire: Bad, but not as bad.
Central Valley: Awful, but not as bad.
Mid - east: almost all below 100 cases per. Good.
Data is from the LA Times: Map is from me.
Compare to the same chart from 4 days ago: much of the state is better. More yellow, less red.
Mortality
Mortality is finally starting to trend down. Mortality can lag up to 6 weeks behind a decrease in cases.
Hospitalizations
Down 22% from 2 weeks ago. Good. Mortality continue to decline in the next week to 10 days to reflect that.
Positivity rate of tests: Statewide, 5.3%, down 1.3% from 14 days ago. Good.
TESTING NEWS
- Spitting is in our future:
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- A new Yale study found that self-administered saliva tests were more accurate at detecting the virus than the lobotomy-style nasopharyngeal tests. That is a huge step forward. The spit test also picked up far more asymptomatic cases.
- In another study, a Canadian team found that the saliva test picked up 14 cases that the swab did not, and the swab picked up 22 cases that the saliva test missed. Lest you think that this makes the swab test the king of the roost, the study pointed out that the swab tests can miss up to 38% of cases at the beginning of symptoms, and up to 100% of infections shortly after exposure. In other words, they are not very good at picking up infections in light viral load cases. The saliva test did well enough to at least earn consideration by the researchers as a screening tool. Progress.
- The LA Times has the Cliffs’ notes version of the studies.
- The Producers’ Guild has released its COVID guidelines for reopening scripted and unscripted independent productions. Since my LA-based family is in the biz, this is a big deal. Actors and crew are divided into “Teams” — but really, if you don’t control the entire environment, both before and after production, without daily testing there are just too many loopholes.
They are trying to do the best they can with really crappy testing options. Unfortunately, the testing parameters just leave a lot of room for contagion.
EVERYONE working on a Production, or, on rare occasions, visiting the Production areas are [sic] required to adhere to the production company testing policy. Individuals must receive a negative result of a Polymerase Chain Reaction (“PCR”) test (nasal swab recommended, mouth swab second choice if nasal swab not available) taken within 48 hours before they begin work or visit any area of Production.
….
Team Member must comply with regular testing per production company policy.Zone A team members should be tested at least three times a week with an in-lab PCR test. Sub Zone implementation (as described above) can further refine the testing schedule as certain circumstances may require daily testing (e.g., performers and crew involved in production of scenes that require close or intimate contact, close contact stunts, or extreme exertion).3 Turnaround time for testing, which can range from hours to days, will be a key factor in determining when and how often tests are administered.
pmcdeadline2.files.wordpress.com/...
Are you in the Biz? Consider this for-instance:
- You get the “gold standard” PCR tested on Thursday.
- On Thursday night, you go to a big party and get infected.
- You get your negative test results on Saturday and go to work. You are probably not contagious yet…
- but on Sunday you might be.
- On Monday you probably will be.
- You get tested again on Monday
- but your results take until Wednesday ….
- and the PCR test might not pick the virus up because it’s too early.
- Even if it does, you have exposed everyone for at least 3 days.
Without a point-of-care test that gives results the day you are on set, you are taking a huge risk in working. Sets are incredibly crowded places despite the best of efforts — the possibilities for outbreaks are huge.
- New York State has deployed COVID Swat teams to contain an outbreak in Western NY State linked to the opening of SUNY Oneonta. Rapid (results in 15 minutes!) COVID tests are being administered to all the Oneonta students — right now they estimate that 3% at least are infected. Because: parties. On behalf of California, I am jealous of New York having rapid tests. Just sayin’.
MASK WARS
Want to make your surgical mask fit hella better? Check out this video from Dr. Olivia Cui on KCRA’s website. Takes 60 seconds to accomplish same.
www.wjcl.com/...
IN THE NEWS
- The state has announced Reopening 2.0. They have ditched the “Watchlist” which everyone hated, and replaced it with the color purple. We now have colored tiers about who can open what.
Is this perfectly clear? I didn’t think so. Still, such nice colors!
This map does not correspond to the map of cases above, because the state uses many more metrics than simply cases per 100k of population to determine which counties can reopen.
Basically, the virus is “widespread” in the entire heavily populated part of the state, except San Diego, where it is “substantial”. Great!
Nevertheless, even the “Purple” tier can immediately reopen indoor hair salons and barbershops. But nail salons cannot. What? Why? That’s much safer than salons; everyone can wear masks, face shields, have little air purifiers right on the desk, and even put a divider between the tech and the customer.
Most retail stores and malls can open at 25% capacity. Common areas in all malls remain closed. Counties can have more stringent rules if they choose.
There is a long list of businesses that CAN open. The state has a slick website that gives you county-by-county information. It’s still very rough on gyms and restaurants. Many will not survive this, since counties can’t open indoor dining until Tier 2.
This is a grand experiment. It is completely unclear to me whether conditions suddenly changed enough to once again reopen the state so dramatically. Is this a reprise of Reopening 1.0? Did the Gov give up again? Does this “new” framework make any sense at all?
Expect a rise in cases; the question is, can they be held to an “acceptable” number this time? And what happens if they are not? No one knows.
SF Gate explains the tiered system:
Purple tier: County risk level is "widespread"
—More than seven daily new cases per 100,000 residents, or test positivity greater than 8%.
—Most non-essential indoor businesses operations are closed, but indoor hair salons and barbershops can reopen effective immediately.
—Newsom stated that this tier will replace the watch list.
—San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Sonoma and Solano counties are the Bay Area counties currently classified as purple.
Red tier: County risk level is "substantial"
—Four to seven daily new cases per 100,000 residents, or test positivity between 5% and 8%
—Some non-essential indoor business operations (office spaces, card rooms) are closed, but gyms, movie theaters and indoor dining can reopen with modifications.
—Schools can open two weeks after a county moves from purple to red.
—San Francisco and Napa are the Bay Area counties currently classified as red. NOTE: The state lists San Francisco's daily case-per-100K number at 9.8. It is unclear why the county is in the red tier.
Orange tier: County risk is "moderate"
—One to four daily new cases per 100,000 residents, or test positivity between 2% and 5%
—Some indoor business operations are open with modifications.
—No Bay Area counties classified as orange.
Yellow tier: County risk is "minimal"
—Less than 1 new daily case per 100,000 residents, or test positivity less than 2%
—Most indoor business operations are open with modifications.
—No Bay Area counties classified as orange.
There is a mandatory 21-day wait time before any county can move between tiers, and a county must meet the metrics for the next tier for two straight weeks. A county may only move one tier at a time.
Wow. Put on your helmet and hold on for dear life. We are in for a ride.
- Butte county in the Gold Country continues to have a hard go of it. Cal State Chico announced all classes are moving online and most on-campus housing will have to be vacated. The outbreak at Chico has impacted virtually every campus residence hall. Chico has the vast majority of the cases in Butte. There is a story that students were heartbroken about having to move out. Um, I think you guys had something to do with that. Such as: Parties.
- San Diego is the only SoCal county that is not hair-on-fire purple, so it can reopen gyms, movie theaters, and indoor dining with modifications. At least one councilman thinks this is exactly what got the state in trouble the last time — opening too many indoor activities all at once. San Diego will be the test case. Meanwhile, the county just announced six new community outbreaks on Friday, most tied to food processing plants, and 20 for the week. Hmm.
- August was by far the deadliest month for the Inland Empire Counties. As The Sun reports:
An explosion of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in July helped make August the deadliest month by far in the Inland counties, health officials say.
And, in Riverside County, COVID-19 deaths reached four digits Friday, Aug. 28, and were at 1,019 by Monday, Aug. 31. Officials reported 324 deaths in August, up from 238 in July.
The heavy toll in August was predictable after the surge in hospitalizations in late July — and that, in turn, resulted from the rising numbers of cases, say health officials.
“In July, we saw infections skew younger, into people who could hold on longer,” said Cameron Kaiser, Riverside County’s public health officer. “While many survive, others, unfortunately, do not.”
It can also take time for deaths to be entered into the system because officials must verify that COVID-19 was the cause of death, he said.
…..
In San Bernardino County, July had been the deadliest, with 156 COVID-19 deaths reported. That almost doubled in August with new 307 deaths being recorded, for a cumulative toll of 716 people succumbing to the virus.
One-third of the region’s new cases in August were reported in just six cities: Riverside (2,434), San Bernardino (2,283), Fontana (2,047), Moreno Valley (1,859), Ontario (1,225) and Victorville (1,112).
Adjusting for population, however, a few smaller locations have high case rates. Leading the region — looking at communities with at least 10,000 people — are Bloomington with 1,980 cases per 100,000 residents, Coachella with 1,281, Desert Hot Springs with 1,077, San Bernardino with 1,038 and Mead Valley with 1,009.
Seven cities had at least 20 coronavirus deaths reported in August: San Bernardino (60), Riverside (43), Fontana (41), Jurupa Valley (34), Moreno Valley (22), Redlands (21) and Ontario (20).
Adjusting for population, the toll was heaviest in Yucca Valley, with 40.7 deaths per 100,000 residents, Palm Springs with 39.3, Mead Valley with 35.1, Desert Hot Springs with 34.6, Colton with 33, Grand Terrace with 32.1 and Jurupa Valley with 31.4.
While the Inland Empire had fewer cases but more deaths in August compared to July, there are a couple of regions going against those trends.
Morongo Basin communities added 152 cases in August, up from 104 in July.
The Coachella Valley had 85 deaths in August, down from 97 in July.
The central portion of the San Bernardino Valley — from San Bernardino west to Fontana — had the highest rates both of cases and deaths per 100,000 residents in August. The Coachella Valley is second in both categories.
San Bernardino County’s mountain communities had the lowest case and death rates in August. In Riverside County, the lowest rates were in the southwest region, from Temecula to Lake Elsinore.
The anecdotal evidence is that these businesses can be operated safely indoors with the correct precautions. Alameda seems all too happy to take their pandemic mess out of the hide of salon owners, it was more than happy to play footsie with Tesla, resulting in a huge spike in cases.
Get your heads on straight. If I owned one of those businesses, I would be beyond angry.
- State lawmakers have approved an emergency bill that would ban evictions for tenants who did not pay their rent between March 1 and Aug. 31 because of the pandemic. The bill would also ban evictions for those same tenants through Jan. 31, but only if the tenants pay at least 25% of the rent owed during that time.
- Crap! Just when you think you have the 6-foot rule down pat, we are told it is “”an oversimplification based on outdated science.” Researchers have come up instead with the 4 “C”s: close, closed, crowded, continuous, and masks, which does not have a C. This causes the mnemonic to lose its punch, frankly. Here is a picture 4 u:
So how about the Republican convention? High risk. Trump’s speech? Medium risk to your physical health, maximum risk to your mental health.
- Ok, so one of my faithful readers found the blog news discouraging. So I shall give you some good news.
Basically: thousands of very smart people in very sophisticated facilities all over the world are working non-stop on dealing with the virus. By the end of the year, this virus will not be gone, but we will have better treatments and much better testing. Particularly when Joe defeats Voldemort.
More news:
- The common steroid dexamethasone drastically reduced deaths in a clinical trial of people with severe COVID-19. The 28-day mortality rate was 1/3 lower in the treated group.
- The anti-cancer drug acalabruinib, which inhibits an enzyme that initiates the cytokine storm that provokes hyperinflammation, was given to 19 COVID patients, 11 on oxygen and 8 on ventilators. After 14 days, 8 of the oxygen patients were free of oxygen, and half of the ventilator patients were off them.
- A drug that cures coronavirus in cats is about to go into clinical trials in humans, according to researchers at the University of Alberta. They are optimistic. Good.
- 94% of COVID deaths are among patients with underlying medical conditions. According to the CDC’s report, here are the top 10:
* Influenza and pneumonia
* Respiratory failure
* Hypertensive disease
* Diabetes
* Vascular and unspecified dementia
* Cardiac Arrest
* Heart failure
* Renal failure
* Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events
* Other medical conditions
Two things: Asthma is not on the list. and what the hell is “other medical conditions”?
The message is that if you are already in failing health, COVID is more deadly. This is why seniors are more vulnerable. The longer you live, the more you have to do yoga or suffer the consequences.
- And… COVID-19 messaging is less effective when it’s tied to Trump.
AND FINALLY….
How To Dismantle Trump, by me, a basketball coach.
My friends have their hair on fire with the latest polls. Being a basketball coach for 30 years has given me a different perspective.
Team 1 dominates and goes up by a lot. The other team changes tactics. They get super aggressive. Team 1 falls back. Momentum shifts. It’s part of the game. Rarely does one team dominate the entire time.
How Team 1 reacts to the surge will determine the outcome of the game.
Is Team 1 basically superior? If yes, then they will win if they stick to fundamentals and do not panic.
Do NOT lose focus when the other team surges. Adapt your tactics to counter the surge.
- Immediately act to seize the momentum back.
- Stay with what worked. Do it better, do it harder, and do more of it.
- Your aim is to Dominate the scenario. To CRUSH your opponent’s surge.
- Go on the offensive again. Don’t start playing defense.
- Break their will. Dismantle your opponent minute by minute, second by second. Be relentless.
- Then, you win.
This latest Trumpist fascist salvo is his Battle of the Bulge. He is losing, and he is throwing everything at us to try to break our will. He will burn down the country to keep power. So we throw it back at them. HARD. Get to twitter. Get to that awful facebook. Write to every media outlet that lets him get away with this without calling it brown-shirted thuggery. Call your family and get angry together. Anger is a great antidote to fear. ACT.
Do things that make you uncomfortable. Make calls, do texting. Call out the evil. Do not allow the media one inch to say it is anything other than what it is; fascism and brownshirts on American soil.
We can break THEIR will. We have to act decisively NOW. This is a game of runs. Let’s cut theirs short.
- Hook up with your local Indivisible group if you aren’t already. I checked the calendar of one local indivisible group up here in the Bay: It’s insane. There are like 15 things to do every day. That’s just one of dozens of groups up here.
- Adopt a swing state. The Lincoln Project is looking to flip North Carolina in the next 45 days. That’s a damn good idea.
- Tried and true: Joebiden.com.
- Want to write send postcards now and not in five weeks? Good. Reclaim our Vote works to call and send postcards to people of color in Southern states to make sure they are registered and can vote.
- Or, hook up with Flip the West to send cards to Arizona, Montana, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska (?) and even Kansas(!) to flip those states AND senate races Blue.
Never heard of Flip the West? Me neither. There are hundreds of organizations like this that we never heard of, working hard under the radar for a second Blue Wave. Throw your shoulder into the scrum to crush the Trumpists for good.
Do you feel better? No? Well then check this out: here are the organizations supporting the heretofore unknown “Flip the West” project.
We are not alone. Teams win games. Let’s win the biggest one of all.
