The conventions don’t seem to have changed much. If anything, Biden is doing better in the swing states over all. However, it is largely unchanged.
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.Biden up by 8, Biden 51 Trump 43 .
Arizona Biden 52 Trump 42
Michigan Biden 52 Trump 42
Colorado Biden 51 Trump 41
Wisconsin Biden 52 Trump 43
Minnesota Biden 50 Trump 43
Pennsylvania Biden 49 Trump 45
Georgia Biden 49 Trump 46
North Carolina Biden 49 Trump 47
Florida Biden 49 Trump 47
Texas Biden 47 Trump 48
Ohio Biden 45 Trump 50
Obviously, we can’t get complacent. We must do everything we can to make sure Biden and Democrats win up and down the ballot. Biden has held a lead of at least seven points in the average of national polls since June 6th. This poll is Morning Consult.
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Tuesday, Sep 1, 2020 · 1:04:16 PM +00:00
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Dem
I want to point out that Emerson’s poll that came out is almost certainly an outlier. I know that they are rated A minus by 538 and they had it at Biden 51 Trump 49 and rounded it to a three point lead.
This poll was not a high quality live interviewer poll. It used IVR and an online panel. They did not call anybody on a cell phone. Not a single call to a person on a cell phone. It was purely a mix of landline calls and an online panel. That’s a bad mix.
In 2020, if you are a pollster making calls, you must call cell phones. They had Trump with a plus two approval rating, 49 approved, 47 disapproved. That doesn’t fit with polling that has stayed the same for the entire three and a half years of Trump’s presidency. That tells us how screwed up their poll is. Then notice that there are literally zero undecideds. That can’t happen. And based upon where polling has been so far, it would mean that all the previous undecideds (pretty much every last one) went to Trump even though he is the incumbent and undecideds break against incumbents at least 2 to 1 because they already know the incumbent and if they are not supporting the incumbent (especially this polarizing incumbent) then it is probably because they don’t like him.
In short, that Emerson poll is an outlier or should I say OUTLIAR. It is bogus.
