I do not disagree with Kos’s analysis of the polls. Biden is ahead and will probably stay ahead. Nevertheless, as he says, progressives need to work hard to assure that result. That leads to a serious problem. What are we supposed to say to convince persuadable voters? Biden doesn’t have a clear message.
His slogan is “Build Back Better,” which is crap. The theme of his convention speech was essentially a restatement of Star Wars philosophy: “For love is more powerful than hate. Hope is more powerful than fear. Light is more powerful than dark.” Yeah, I get it, but this cannot possibly move votes.
Only a small slice of likely voters – maybe five percent (the Wall Street Journal says ten percent) – could possibly vote for either Biden or Trump. Everyone else is either locked in or they’re lying to pollsters and will not vote.
The thing about these persuadable voters is, they are completely focused on what’s best for themselves and their families, and perhaps what’s best for their friends. Appeals will fall flat if they’re based on the “common good” or sympathy for a group that they do not belong to. They want to know how the election affects them personally.
Biden has mentioned a persuasive message, but it was buried in his acceptance speech. He said:
Our current president has failed in his most basic duty to this nation. He failed to protect us. He failed to protect America. And, my fellow Americans, that is unforgivable. As president, I will make you this promise: I will protect America. I will defend us from every attack. Seen. And unseen. Always. Without exception. Every time.
That’s a little wordy. In a nutshell: Trump endangers you and your loved ones. Biden will protect you.
The narrow version of this message works because it fits what persuadable Americans already believe. By a margin of 58-to-40 percent (RCP average), voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus. In other words, only Trump’s base approves of what he’s done – virtually every swing voter disapproves. Further, the larger message beyond the pandemic is believable because persuadable voters think that Biden, not Trump “cares about people like you.”
Obviously, your first example must be COVID-19. It’s not so much about the past – that 180,000+ Americans have died and that most of those deaths could have been prevented by a competent president, as proven by our country’s failure compared to all other wealthy nations. It’s the future – whoever you’re talking to remains at risk. The lives and health of his/her family members are endangered by Trump and they will never be safe unless and until we get rid of him. Biden cares about people and will do everything a rich nation can do to protect you, while Trump frankly and obviously does not care if you live or die; he has made virtually no effort to save anyone’s life.
But after clobbering Trump over COVID-19, you can shift to other areas. Biden will protect your ability to get quality, affordable health insurance; he will fight to protect your environment from climate change; he will put our nation’s security interests over the interests of Russia; and he will protect your right to participate in a free and fair democracy.
Don’t waste your time on the racists and ignoramuses. There’s nothing you can do to change them. Speak to the tiny slice of persuadable Americans. Limit your arguments to issues and beliefs where they are already on our side. Lead them from those preconceptions to the conclusion that they must support Biden this time.
