I am truly mystified why the daily Kos staff would publish a “chill the f*ck out” message today to some of the most active and aware Democrats. We who are worried about the progress and direction of the Biden campaign don’t need such patronizing claptrap. We need to continue to prod Biden. Here’s why.
1. Hidden Trump voters. May be as much as 4-7% missed by polls. People who, for whatever reason, don’t want to admit they are voting for Trump. Some 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, vs. 5.4% of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch LLC, a Queens, N.Y.-based company that conducts online market research and data collection for clients. Among the reasons they gave was that “it's dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint,” according to Leib Litman, the co-chief executive officer and chief research officer. See: www.bloomberg.com/...
2. Poll numbers don’t reflect 100%. This gets into turnout. When you see a poll showing Biden beats Trump by 7% in some state, look at the total percentage. Almost always Biden is below 50%. How anyone can be undecided at this point is astonishing, but I’m troubled by Biden not being over 50%.
3. Racism. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE. How on earth can Trump be beating Biden by 7% among white men? Yes, the electorate isn’t just white men. But it’s a concern. As well as losing by 8% among high school graduates.
4. Trump will continue to foster violence and anger. Americans are suckers for “law and order. See !968.
5. Trump makes us REACT to his message. Biden must Act on his chosen message. Choose our own battlefield position.
6. Finally, play electoral college. Go down the list of states yourself. My list shows We must win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, because I fear we will lose Florida.
so yes, Biden looks good. But if the electorate was rational and emotionally healthy, Biden would be up nationally by 20 Points. The fact he is up by 2 or 3% in crucial swing states, within the margin of error, and below 50% is cause for intelligent concern.
UPDATE
a number of commentators attack me as a “downer” and who the f*ck are you, you know nothing. I may be wrong, so why are you so angrily attacking me? First, I thought Daily Kos was about a CONVERSATION on politics. We lose elections and democracy if we are afraid to debate one another. I hope I am wrong about the campaigns. I think we need a course correction, especially in Michigan. Read Michael Moore. I feel we will win Pennsylvania, and Arizona. We will lose Florida and Ohio. Highly uncomfortable about Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina. I did post a while back about some ideas for Biden. www.dailykos.com/…
i have also posted on fears of election chaos and “stealing the election “. www.dailykos.com/…
i recommend reading Press Watch...presswatchers.org/…
and Max Boot ‘s series on how Trump might illegitimate the election... www.washingtonpost.com/…
finally , OF COURSE I’M ACTING. The fact that people assume I’m not is just weird. The compulsive need to “shout me down” or to
“chill” is dismissive and offensive. But hey, we got assholes just like the Republicans.
