Fox News is working overtime to demonize the Black Lives Matter movement, so surprising no one, it turns out their efforts are having an effect: opposition to the Black Lives Matter movement has increased among white Americans, as you can see in Civiqs’ #BLM daily tracker:
Given that stark orange “oppose” line, it’s easy to miss that support for Black Lives Matter is actually up from pre-protests time. Still, people have fixated on the opposition part, and it has bizarrely led some in the punditry to demand that Joe Biden “Sister Souljah” the movement. In other words, they’re calling on him to attack one of our most critical core party demographics:
On Friday, The Atlantic’s George Packer speculated that the unrest in Kenosha could doom Biden in November. “In the crude terms of a presidential campaign, voters know that the Democrat means it when he denounces police brutality, but less so when he denounces riots,” he wrote. “To reach the public and convince it otherwise, Biden has to go beyond boilerplate and make it personal, memorable.”
To be extra clear, people like Packer want Biden to denounce the Black Lives Matter movement, and many are using that Civiqs chart to make their case. This might be the most ridiculous hot take of this cycle, the most gross misreading of data, and dangerously irresponsible.
For starters, yes, white support for #BLM has dropped—from its peak. Today’s 40% is a significant increase from the 34% of white Americans who supported the Black Lives Matter movement before the national protest movement. It was only 28% during the Charlottesville protests in 2017!
What we’re seeing isn’t a drop in support, but an increase in opposition, and that’s coming almost entirely from white people who hadn’t previously taken a stance—people who likely didn’t even know #BLM existed until recently. And would you be surprised to hear that most of that movement is coming from Republicans?
These Republicans didn’t even know #BLM existed until Fox News and Donald Trump decided to scream about the “mobs” to try and ride racial resentment to electoral victory. That’s what’s moving these numbers!
White Democrats, of course, are solid allies, 88-4 supportive. But what about white independents?
Yes, there has been erosion, as “independent” runs the gamut from Bernie socialists to tea party radicals. It’s a generic term devoid of ideological meaning. That said, there is still 44-39 plurality support for Black Lives Matter among those white independents. And the broader trend is still up—from 27% supportive after Charlottesville, to 34% before the protest movement, to 44% today, This group has seen some of the most dramatic movement among all demographics!
So to summarize—
- Support for Black Lives Matter is up among white people;
- Support is up among white independents (which retains plurality support);
- Opposition is up among Republicans; so
- Dumbass pundits want Biden to explicitly attack the movement.
Sounds ridiculous, right? The idea that Joe Biden should denounce Black Lives Matter—a movement and an idea that over the long term has more supporters now than ever before—because a bunch of Republicans decided they don’t like what the group stands for, is absolutely nonsensical.
That should be reason enough to reject those ridiculous suggestions. But here’s one more:
Trump vs Biden polling aggregate.
Joe Biden is winning (comfortably!) and the race hasn’t budged during the entire protest season.
Shocking, right, that newfound Republican opposition to the Black Lives Matter movement wouldn’t change the horserace numbers? Who would’ve thought?
So why the hell would people panic and demand Biden do something as morally bankrupt, divisive, and self-destructive as attack the Black Lives Matter movement?
P.S. When we talk about “white Americans” opposing Black Lives Matter, understand that we’re talking about “older white men.”
|
Support for #BLM |
Net support |
| White men |
32-53 |
-21 |
| white women |
47-39 |
+8 |
| Whites 18-34 |
54-34 |
+20 |
| White men 18-34 |
45-41 |
+4 |
White men truly do live in another American reality.
