Earlier this week, I gave you several reasons not to panic. There are even fewer reasons today after yesterday’s flood of good-news polls, all of them roses for the Biden campaign and Democrats.
Let’s start with Fox News, which is fun because it means that Donald Trump can’t avoid seeing these numbers on his television screen:
So Biden +9 in Arizona, +8 in Wisconsin, and +4 in North Carolina is utterly devastating to Republicans. Arizona and North Carolina also have critical Senate races down-ballot, and the strong presidential showings only increase our chances of taking the Senate.
Back on June 25, Fox News had Biden winning North Carolina by just two, 47-45. So this new poll shows that post-convention, it was Biden who made gains. In other words, the trend is in our direction. In an early June Fox News poll of Arizona, Biden had a mere 4-point lead, 46-42, once again suggesting that all momentum has been on the Biden side
Meanwhile, in the last Fox News poll of Wisconsin, also in early June, Biden led Trump 49-40; thus the current 50-42 result shows an equally bad result for Trump. But speaking of Wisconsin, which is now ground zero for Black Lives Matter protests, check this out:
Turns out, Trump’s “law and order” messaging isn’t the electoral killer he thinks it is, even in the Kenosha’s home state.
Meanwhile, Morning Consult took a look at a bunch of battlegrounds. The number in parenthesis is their previous result, prior to the conventions:
Arizona
Biden 52 (45)
Trump 42 (47)
Florida
Biden 49 (50)
Trump 47 (45)
Georgia
Biden 49 (46)
Trump 46 (47)
Michigan
Biden 52 (50)
Trump 42 (44)
North Carolina
Biden 49 (49)
Trump 47 (46)
Pennsylvania
Biden 49 (50)
Trump 45 (44)
Wisconsin
Biden 52 (49)
Trump 43 (43)
As you can see, Biden is winning every single one of the core seven battleground states. And, he’s increased his lead in five of them, with Florida and Pennsylvania narrowing slightly (all within an expected statistical float). And the toplines are massive: Arizona +10, Michigan +10, and Wisconsin +9. Flip those three states alone and nothing else, and … oh crap, it’s 269-269! We’d need to grab one more of anything else, either the rural Maine electoral vote that Trump grabbed in 2016, or the Omaha, Nebraska-based electoral vote that we’re looking good to grab this year (it’s suburban). It’s a good thing Biden has lots of avenues to get there.
Looking at the national picture, CNN released a new poll yesterday as well. The news network caused a stir a week ago or so by releasing a convention-time poll showing Biden leading by “only” 50-46. This was the poll that got Michael Moore to do an alarmist “WE’RE ALL DOOMED” Facebook post calling the results “tied.” It’s the poll that motivated that “stop panicking” post I wrote earlier this week, because reacting to an outlier poll is never a good thing to do. So, what does CNN’s new poll say?
National, CNN
Biden: 51 (50)
Trump: 43 (46)
See? Reacting to a single poll is stupid. Look at the overall trends. Look at the aggregate. And wait and see if that same pollster arrives at the same numbers next time they poll. As of now, the polling aggregate continues to give Biden an 8- to 9-point lead, so this CNN poll tracks. Here’s the aggregate from the Economist:
The Economist’s polling aggregate
Also this week, Quinnipiac released a national poll giving Biden a 52-42 lead. And Selzer, the wunderpollsters out of Iowa, had Biden ahead 49-41. See? Those polls track. Don’t think “Biden is winning by 10 because of Quinnipiac,” or “Biden is tied because of CNN!” Instead, look at that aggregate, because historically, the aggregate is pretty darn accurate.
The entire premise of that hysterical Michael Moore Facebook post is now kinda shot.
Of course, if his point was “Donald Trump can win!”, then sure. Stipulated. We learned in 2016 that our country is racist, sexist, and chock-full of deplorables. But the lesson wasn’t “ignore the numbers” or “cherrypick the ones that give me reason to panic.”
And again, it’s okay to feel good about these numbers! There’s this obnoxious liberal tendency to have to catastrophize the news, lest “people become complacent.” Do you see anyone around you being complacent? I certainly don’t. Everyone is amped up. That’s why Biden raised record amounts of cash in August. Do you think they’ll see a poll with Biden leading and say “ah good, mission accomplished!”? No one is resting until Election Day, and maybe not even then. So please, for the love of the gods, stop trying to scare people into action. Trump is scary enough. His Republican Party is scary enough.
The truth right now is that we’re in a great position to win. FEEL GOOD about it! You’ve helped create this political climate! Your work is paying off!
Now use that positive energy to be the happy warrior—joyfully doing everything you can to guarantee Republican losses up and down the ballot this November. Get your rest! Staying up all night worrying helps no one. Be mindful! I’ve established a daily Yin Yoga practice to lower my stress levels. Find what works for you—meditation, breathing exercises, gardening, whatever! Being amped up to 100% all the time isn’t healthy, and doesn’t make you a productive activist. Get some exercise! Even a 20-minute walk is great for your heart and also helps lower stress.
And be grateful that you’re a Democrat this year, because Republicans need every bit of their anti-reality bubble to avoid the truth of their current situation. We don’t have to fear reality. Embrace it, let it nourish you, and then work to maximize our November victories.
