Daily Kos Elections is out with new data for Kansas—which was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby—of the 2018 gubernatorial results by state Senate, state House, and congressional district.
While Donald Trump carried Kansas 57-36, Democrat Laura Kelly defeated Republican Kris Kobach 48-43 in the 2018 governor’s race, with independent Greg Orman taking third with 6%. Kobach responded to that defeat by running for the U.S. Senate this year, but national Republicans spent heavily on a successful campaign to deny him the party’s nomination.
Kelly, meanwhile, has had to deal with a hostile legislature where Republicans can override her vetoes with the support of two-thirds of the members of each chamber. State House Republicans took the same 85-40 majority in 2018 that they’d won in 2016, though their edge dropped to 84-41 after state Rep. Stephanie Clayton joined the Democrats a month after the election. In the state Senate, which is only up in presidential years, the GOP has a larger 29-11 advantage.
Conservatives haven’t always been able to get their way because moderate Republicans have sided with Kelly on key issues, but a number of moderates went down in defeat in last month’s primaries. This makes it all the more crucial for Democrats to take enough seats in at least one chamber this year to maintain Kelly’s vetoes without GOP support, especially since redistricting will be on the next legislature’s agenda.
We’ll start with a look at the House, where Democrats need to net just one seat to deprive Republicans of their super majority. Kelly carried 64 of the 125 districts―a bare majority, despite her clear statewide win―while Kobach took 61. (Our numbers show one of those seats, HD-98, going for Kobach by a single vote.) Kelly won all at 34 seats that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, plus an additional 30 Trump districts.
There are two Republicans in Clinton/Kelly districts, while another 21 represent Trump/Kelly constituencies. (The aforementioned Stephanie Clayton prevailed in a Clinton/Kelly district during her final race as a Republican last cycle, and she’s running unopposed as a Democrat this time.) Nine Democrats, meanwhile, hold Trump/Kelly districts, but Team Blue doesn’t represent any turf that Kobach carried.
We’ll turn next to the Senate, where Democrats have to net three seats to be able to sustain Kelly’s vetoes without any Republican support. Kelly carried 21 of the 40 seats, taking all seven Clinton districts and 14 Trump constituencies. The one Republican in a Clinton/Kelly seat is Majority Leader Jim Denning, who is retiring; SD-08, which is based in Overland Park in the Kansas City area, went from 47-46 Clinton to 57-36 Kelly. Nine Republicans and six Democrats are in Trump/Kelly seats, while once again, no Democrats represent Trump/Kobach constituencies.
Finally, we have a look at the state’s four congressional districts. The 3rd District in the Kansas City area moved from 47-46 Clinton to 56-37 Kelly, and last cycle, Democrat Sharice Davids unseated Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder 54-44 here. The 2nd District in the Topeka area, meanwhile, went from 56-37 Trump to 51-41 Kelly. Republican Steve Watkins narrowly beat Democrat Paul Davis 48-47 in an open seat race in 2018, only to lose renomination last month to state Treasurer Jake LaTurner; Democrats are fielding Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla.
Kobach took the other two seats, but he dramatically underperformed Trump. While Trump won the Wichita-based 4th District 60-33, Kobach squeaked by with a 45.4-44.7 win. And while Trump dominated 69-24 in the 1st District in western Kansas, Kobach took it only 51-37.
P.S. You can find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states. Additionally, you can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.