Joe Biden has a stable 7 plus point lead in the average of polls since June 6th according to 538, the kind of stable 7 plus point lead in the average of polls that not even Barack Obama in 2008 had. I want to be clear on the next point I am making. The following scenario is not more likely than all others combined, but it is the single most likely outcome right now according to 538 : Joe Biden wins more than 400 electoral college votes. Compared to any one other scenario, this happens more frequently. That absolutely could change. That has not been a stable prediction. It is true right now, but it could become untrue tomorrow easily.
And I hear the tut tutters coming. I don’t care about the national polls. This isn’t just one national poll, however, This is the average of national polls. And it is not just at one point in time. This is over three months and through both conventions. Both conventions have come and gone and the 7 plus point lead is still there ! Remarkable ! Absolutely remarkable stability ! We haven’t seen anything like this in over 20 years ! And yes, if you win the national popular vote by 7 plus points, then you win the electoral college vote. The odds are 99% ! My source: Nate Silver !
.
.So, if Joe Biden wins the national popular vote by 7 points or more, then there is a 99% probability of him winning the electoral college vote as well. And this makes perfect sense. While in an abstract unrealistic situation, one could manufacture a unique unusual scenario, demographics tend to be very consistent across the country. And MI, WI, PA, are not R+7. They just aren’t. So, that’s why this is true.
Does it seem pretty damn likely that he will win the national popular vote by 7 or more points? Well, considering that he has had that lead in the average of polls for three months and through both conventions, yes it does.
.
Nothing has changed it. Not the conventions. Not the ads by the other side. Not Kenosha. Not Portland. Nothing. Three straight months of a better than 7 point lead in the average of polls without any interruption at all. None.
Let’s keep it going !
