Pennsylvania looks like it will be a very close state this year. Monmouth is one of the best pollsters there is and they have it a 4 point race. They could be wrong. Fox News is a good pollster and they have Biden with a larger lead as do several other pollsters. And if we look at polling from 2016 in Pennsylvania, every poll but one out of the last 30 polls gave Clinton a lead. Yet, Trump pulled it out.
But let me talk you off that ledge. While Hillary Clinton had some good polls, Biden is consistently at 49% or better. How Consistently ? He has been at 49% or better in the average of polls since June 22. Hillary was vulnerable to James Comey giving a moral sermon right before the election because (1) she was being investigated and (2) her polling averages were between 46% and 48%. Biden isn’t vulnerable on either count. We are now weighting by education which accounts for why Trump overperformed his poll numbers. Even with weighting by education, Biden has held a lead of better than four points in the average of polls since June 22. If Biden simply retains the percentage of the vote he has held for two and a half months now, then he wins. Furthermore, the simple fact of the matter is that President Barack Obama won more votes in Pennsylvania in 2012 than Donald Trump did in 2016 despite population growth. People now see the danger in having a minimally education, bigoted narcissist with zero experience. If we simply turn out our vote this election, then we will win Pennsylvania.
Now, there are other considerations as well. In 2016, Donald Trump was not the incumbent. In 2020, he is the incumbent who badly mismanaged the pandemic resulting in over 185,000 dead Americans and a damaged economy. Joe Biden has held a lead of at least seven points in the average of national polls since June 6th, three months ago. Nate Silver tweeted correctly that Joe’s chances of winning the electoral college if he wins the popular vote by 7 % are 99%.
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.Biden is winning double haters by about 25 points whereas Trump won them by double digits in 2016. Now, realize everything that Biden’s lead has endured: Portland, Kenosha, ads against him, and even both conventions. His national lead has stayed stable for three months without a single interruption. If it has stayed stable for three straight months, then the odds of it moving very much are minimal at best. Trump’s disapproval numbers have stayed consistent since he became president. The polls accurately predicted a Democratic wave in 2018 and we won 40 seats in the US House of Representatives. Biden’s lead in Arizona is bigger than his lead in Pennsylvania as is his lead in Florida (this was recently thrown off by a C- republican pollster which had Trump leading by 3 but it is clearly an outlier by a poor republican pollster but otherwise has been about 5 points ) and Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden has numerous ways to get to 270. Biden’s been leading by better than 5 points and above 48% in Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin for about two and a half months straight in the average of polls. Biden is down one in Texas. Recent polling from Morning Consult had Biden up three in Georgia. Biden is at worst in a toss up in North Carolina. And the race has been so stable because of Trump’s pandemic mangling on top of his bigoted nature and his narcissism. It is not 2016. Polling was improved because we are weighting by education. Trump is the incumbent president whose mismanagement of the pandemic led to a wrecked economy and over 185,000 dead Americans. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. The conventions have passed and Biden’s lead is still more than 7 points in the average of polls. Biden’s lead is better than Barack’s lead was in 2008. He is in the best position of any candidate since at least 1996.
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.We are going to win Pennsylvania. The polling is weighted by education now. Our turnout dropped in Pennsylvania in 2016. It won’t drop this time around. We don’t have to win Pennsylvania. We have Arizona and Florida and many paths to 270 electoral college votes. We are winning the rural Maine electoral college vote by double digits and NE 02 as well.
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We just need to do everything we can : make sure we are registered to vote, have a plan to vote, help others get registered to vote, phone bank, write post cards, and talk to our family and friends. We are highly motivated. We aren’t complacent, especially not after 2016. And this is a particularly poor place to look for complacent voters to jump on. People on Daily Kos are by their very nature, more active politically. There may not be a more motivated group of Democrats and people on the left committed to the defeat of Donald Trump than Daily Kos. So, here isn’t the place to push a “watch out for complacency “ message.
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