Polls: So, you like Senate polls, eh? Well, have all the Senate polls in the world!
- AZ-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP: Mark Kelly (D): 48, Martha McSally (R-inc): 45 (48-47 Biden)
- AZ-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Kelly (D): 51, McSally (R-inc): 45. (49-45 Biden) (Aug.: 49-43 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Kelly (D): 53, McSally (R-inc): 38 (48-43 Biden) (Aug.: 53-34 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: John Hickenlooper (D): 51, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 46 (50-40 Biden)
- GA-Sen-A: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Jon Ossoff (D): 48, David Perdue (R-inc): 47 (47-46 Biden)
- IA-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Joni Ernst (R-inc): 50, Theresa Greenfield (D): 45 (47-45 Trump)
- ME-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Sara Gideon (D): 44, Susan Collins (R-inc): 43, Lisa Savage (I): 7 (54-40 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP: Gary Peters (D-inc): 45, John James (R): 41 (50-43 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Peters (D-inc): 50, James (R): 46 (49-43 Biden) (Aug.: 50-45 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Peters (D-inc): 50, James (R): 38 (51-40 Biden) (Aug.: 48-39 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Rasmussen Reports: Peters (D-inc): 48, James (R): 40 (53-44 Biden)
- MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for local media: Tina Smith (D-inc): 47, Jason Lewis (R): 36 (49-40 Biden)
- MT-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Hart Research (D) for the AARP: Steve Daines (R-inc): 50, Steve Bullock (D): 47 (50-43 Trump)
- NC-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) and GS Strategy Group (R) for the AARP: Cal Cunningham (D): 42, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 39 (48-48 presidential tie)
- NC-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Cunningham (D): 51, Tillis (R-inc): 44 (49-47 Biden) (Aug.: 52-42 Cunningham)
- NC-Sen: Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Cunningham (D): 47, Tillis (R-inc): 37 (44-43 Trump) (Aug.: 47-38 Cunningham)
If you’re not James Coco, keep reading for more on some of these contests.
AZ-Sen: While Democrat Mark Kelly has led in almost every single poll released this year, this batch of surveys very much disagrees about how far ahead he is. The only other poll that’s been publicized in September so far was a Fox News poll released last week from the bipartisan team of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company that found Kelly up 56-39.
CO-Sen: This Fabrizio Ward/ Hart Research poll, by contrast, isn’t too different from the two other surveys we’ve seen recently. About two weeks ago, Democrat John Hickenlooper’s allies at the safety group Giffords released numbers from Public Policy Polling that showed Hickenlooper beating Republican Sen. Cory Gardner 51-42, while a Morning Consult survey publicized days later had the Democrat ahead 48-39.
GA-Sen-A: The new joint poll from Fabrizio and Hart, like the three surveys we’d seen from August, finds a tight race. A month-old SurveyUSA poll for the local media found Republican Sen. David Perdue ahead 44-41. A mid-August PPP survey for the progressive site MoveOn showed the race tied 44-44, while an internal for Democrat Jon Ossoff taken around that same time by Garin-Hart-Yang put him ahead 48-46.
IA-Sen: This survey is the best poll we’ve seen for Republican Sen. Joni Ernst all year, though like August’s surveys, it also shows a competitive race. A Monmouth University poll that concluded at the start of last month put the incumbent ahead 48-45, while the progressive firm Data for Progress had Democrat Theresa Greenfield up 45-43 in a survey taken around the same time. A mid-August PPP survey for MoveOn also gave Greenfield a 48-45 edge.
ME-Sen: This is the best poll we’ve seen for Republican Sen. Susan Collins in some time, though she still hasn’t led in any publicly released numbers since late June. A total of five polls were released in August, and they gave Democrat Sara Gideon a lead ranging from 3 to 7 points.
This poll from Fabrizio and Hart also worked to simulate the state’s instant runoff voting, but it found little change when independent Lisa Savage was eliminated from consideration. Gideon maintains a 48-47 edge in a two-person race, with the Bangor Daily News writing that undecided voters broke for Collins while Savage’s supporters were more inclined to support the Democrat.
MN-Sen: SurveyUSA has the third poll we’ve seen over the last week in a race that still hasn’t attracted much outside attention. Republican Jason Lewis’ campaign released a Harper Polling survey that showed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith behind just 43-41, while PPP, which did not have a client, had the incumbent ahead 49-41.
MT-Sen: The Fabrizio and Hart poll is the first survey we’ve seen from a reputable firm (or in this case, firms) in some time. Back in mid-July, a Civiqs poll for Daily Kos put Republican Sen. Steve Daines’ lead at 49-47, which is very similar to what Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research find now.