I had several other topics that I have been mulling over and working on, but I looked at the polls and 270 to win and this just is screaming out to be shared. Biden is winning both Michigan (7.6) and Wisconsin (6.9) handily, by almost 7 points each. Biden has been winning Wisconsin by more than six points and with more than 48.4% of the vote since June 15th, almost three straight months in the average of polls. Biden has been leading in Michigan in the average of polls by more than six points and with at least 49.3% of the vote since June 3rd. There are only 54 53 days left until November 3 and there will be early voting soon. Trump is now having to fight defensively against the impact of “Losergate” and “Liargate” and losing precious time he needs to turn these states around. They are just about out of reach for him. These leads lasted through the protests, all of the ads (Trump campaign burned through $800 million — — granted $350 million was pure grifting but still) and their convention.
That means with NE02, all Biden needs is one more state with 11 eleven electoral college votes. He doesn’t need to win both Arizona (5.3) or Pennsylvania (5.0) Arizona alone gets him to 270 electoral college votes. He is up in both states by five or more points. Biden has been up four points or more and at 48.5% in the average of polls since June 14th in Pennsylvania. Arizona has been steadily climbing into the Biden camp. Senator Jeff Flake endorsed Joe Biden for president. Captain Mark Kelly has been running a stellar campaign there and is up big on Martha McSally. Biden’s chances of winning Arizona are now estimated to be about 2 in 3. The only reasons why it is this low is because Arizona has now not historically gone blue in quite some time and probably because the five point lead has not been in place for very long and there are 54 53 days until election day. Nevertheless, trying to overcome a 5 point lead and where Biden is at over 49% of the vote in such a short time (again early voting starts soon) is difficult at best. Plus, Trump’s campaign is low on money. They are dark in Arizona now. Moreover, Trump is on the defensive because of both “Losergate” and “Liargate” . Biden’s chances of winning Pennsylvania are 74%, almost 3 in 4.
Again, Biden only needs to win one of them and he is at 270 electoral college votes. So, Trump must win both of them or he loses the whole ball game. Remember, we are now weighting by education and Hillary was vulnerable because her share of the vote was low and so if the undecideds broke against her, she could lose. This is exactly what happened. Biden’s share of the vote is above 49% in both states. Undecideds break against the incumbent, especially this polarizing incumbent whose lies cost nearly 200,000 Americans their lives in the pandemic.
Now, consider that these are not the only states that Trump must win. If Biden wins North Carolina, he wins the whole ball game and Biden is up 2 points there. If Biden wins Florida, he wins the whole ball game and Biden is up 2.7 points there. Any of the following four states where Biden is leading put him over the top: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina.
Then we have states where Biden is close and is behind by only 2 points or less: Georgia (which again by itself puts Biden over the top), Iowa (isn’t enough by itself), Texas where Biden was only behind seven tenths of one percent yesterday (again by itself puts Biden over the top), and finally Ohio (again by itself puts Biden over the top and where Biden is only down nine tenths of one point and where Biden has a 45% chance of winning).
Again, Biden has held a 7 point or better lead in the average of national polls since June 6th and been at or above 49.8 % in the average of national polls since June 6th as well, over three months time. As is well known by now, Nate Silver estimates Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college at 99% if he wins the popular vote by 7 points. .
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.With Wisconsin and Michigan both in Biden’s camp, then Trump must win all of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Ohio. Trump is down in four of those states, two of them by five points or more. Trump has only a narrow lead in the remaining three and is barely favored to win Ohio. Yet, he must win every single one of those states. Trying to come back in four states and trying to come back in two states where one is down by five points or more with only 54 53 days left when you are on defense and you have gone dark because you burned through your campaign funds is extremely difficult at best and even more so when you are such a polarizing incumbent, remembering that incumbents typically lose the undecided vote two to one.
Therefore, it is clear that Biden is in an excellent position to win the electoral college and Trump is in a terrible position to do so. Let’s make this a slaughter !
Friday, Sep 11, 2020 · 3:35:19 PM +00:00 · Dem
The Russians and the republicans are clearly trying to influence voters and suppress the vote, both extremely unethical. However, we don’t have evidence that the vote totals were changed. We don’t want to undermine confidence in our elections because that discourages our voters from voting.
The Claim: “Vote flipping” by voting machines — and other malfunctions, such as machines failing to start, crashing, or freezing — are clear indications that hackers have penetrated machines or that partisans have rigged the election in favor of their preferred candidate.
The Truth: Malfunctions may be the result of wear and tear rather than hacking or manipulation. For example, vote flipping can be caused by the glue between the touch screen and the machine wearing down.
- The Brennan Center has sounded the alarm about aging voting machines for years. In 2018, jurisdictions in 41 states used voting systems that were at least a decade old.
- Since then, at least nine states have upgraded their voting systems to eliminate old machines. Importantly, we project that no battleground states will use paperless Direct-Recording Electronic (DRE) voting machines in 2020 — the type of machine most susceptible to hacking and to vote flipping.
Here is a list of states that allow early voting :
My update about Wisconsin and early voting is inaccurate. I apologize. I relied upon ballotpedia but they apparently have not updated their information.