Okay friends, just a little Friday breath of fresh air, because I think that is what many are longing for right now, metaphorically and literally.
I studied the current (as of 9:00 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 11th) ‘winding path to victory’ on 538, which I believe is the most accurate amalgam of polls and found these numbers:
Biden’s current forecast for winning the Presidency: Favored (Forecast designations include: toss-up, slightly favored, favored, clearly favored, very likely)
Biden’s chance to win the Presidency: 75 out 100
Biden’s current electoral cushion (votes he could lose and still win the EC): 60 votes
538’s most common outcome in their simulation(approx.): Biden 400 electoral votes, Trump 138
States that Biden has a 1% or less chance of losing: 12 (Connecticut, Illinois, Delaware, Rhode Island, Washington, New York, Maryland, California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Vermont, DC) Totaling 162 electoral votes.
States that Trump has a 1% or less chance of losing: 5.2 (Nebraska’s 3rd district, Wyoming, West Virginia, Idaho, Oklahoma, North Dakota) Totaling 23 electoral votes.
And just for some current perspective:
Biden has a better chance at winning Ohio than Trump does of Florida (45% to 39%)
Biden has a better chance at winning Georgia than Trump does of Pennsylvania (34% to 26%)
Biden has a better chance at winning Alaska than Trump does of winning Michigan (20% to 14%)
and my personal favorite… Biden has a better chance at winning the Presidency than Trump does of winning Texas! (75% to 68%)
Yes, these numbers can change. Yes, we shouldn’t rest on our laurels. But regardless, these cold hard numbers should fill us with warm feelings for the weekend. The media abhors a sure thing, so you know something is going to make the numbers tighten before November, but 7 ½ weeks out, I think our horse is doing just fine.