This continues an ongoing series about the 2020 Senate elections (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here), We’ll review the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts at this time, then the polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270towin (270). Numbers are from 9/11:
Princeton Election Consortium: D 52, R 48 (updated daily, no change). MT, KS, and AK are still the Senate “Moneyball” states.
CNN (no update): 60% chance of Ds winning at least 4 seats (AZ, CO, ME, and NC are the likely pickups) while losing just 1 (AL). IA rated a 50-50 toss-up and a 40% chance for the Ds in MT and the Perdue seat in GA. This all puts the Ds at a minimum of 50 seats.
Electoral-vote.com: D 51, R 48, 1 tie (updated daily; -1 R). D pickups are AZ, CO, IA, ME, and NC; R pickup is AL; the tie is AK.
Rachel Bitecofer: D 50, R 46, toss-ups 4 (no update). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Special, IA, KS, and MT.
Inside Elections: D 48, R 48, toss-ups 4 (updated September 4th; no change). Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME, MT, NC.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 48, R 49, toss-ups 3 (no update). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 47, R 47, toss-ups 6 (no update). D pick up AZ, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: D 46, R 46, toss-ups 8 (no change). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MT, MN, NC, SC.
The main thing about the ongoing struggle for Senate control is how stable it is (very similar to the Biden-Trump race). As we’ve seen for weeks, none of the 8 models tracked put the Rs at 50 or more seats, while 4 show 50+ seats for the Ds.
Now for the individual races:
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +11.2 (270), D+11.3 (RCP). Kelly’s lead remains solidly in double digits.
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +7.7 (270). Hickenlooper maintains a comfortable lead.
MN (Smith/D vs Lewis/R): D +9.5 (270), D +7.3 (RCP). Smith’s lead extends, and this looks very noncompetitive.
MI (Peters/D vs James/R): D +3.6 (270), D +3.5 (RCP).
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +3.4 (270), D +3.3 (RCP). Cunningham maintains his lead.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +1.0 (270), D +4.5 (RCP). The 270 average is now based on a single recent poll, by Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research; RCP’s has no polls from the last month. It would be surprising if Gideon’s small but growing lead suddenly evaporated by this much.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): D +1.0 (270), R +4.0 (RCP). The single poll in the 270 average is also from Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research, so they are not simply showing a pro-GOP bias.
AK (Gross/I vs Sullivan/R): Tie (270), R +5.0 (RCP). Both based on single polls, but 270’s is more recent.
KS (Bollier/D vs Marshall/R): R +1.3 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). Minimal change.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): R +3.0 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). Slight tightening favors Bullock in most recent poll on 270.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): R +5.0 (270), D +0.3 (RCP). The 270 average is again based on a single recent poll, and perhaps not coincidentally it’s the same one as in ME: Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research (RCP’s average again has no polls from the last month). Once again, it would be surprising if a race that has been a dead heat for nearly 2 months suddenly broke to Ernst this way.
Next, the two most awful GOP senators of today:
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): Tie (270), R +3.5 (RCP). For the RCP average, I’m excluding an old February poll with a 17-pt Graham lead.
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +5.0 (270); R +5.0 (RCP). McConnell may not have a double-digit lead after all, but more polling is needed.
With the conventions long over, the Senate picture remains the same as it did before them. The Ds have an edge in 4 states (AZ, CO, ME, NC) that would give them 50 seats and Senate control (assuming they lose AL and Biden wins). If things break their way, with competitive races in some surprising states, a solid majority of several seats is in reach. But a strong GOTV operation is vital, given the GOP shenanigans (attacks on mail-in voting, the USPS scandal, etc.).
