Some very good news today out of Arizona:
Arizona, for the first time, just became a double-digit disaster area for Donald Trump, a new low for the president whose road to the White House runs through Arizona.
As Trump arrives in the state today for his fifth visit of the year, Democrat Joe Biden has opened up a 10-point lead here, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.
Not only is Trump losing the all-important battle for independents, the September poll indicates Trump is losing support among older Republicans.
Downplaying a highly contagious virus that is killing older Americans will do that, it seems.
Click here for the full results.
FYI:
CBS News’ latest poll gives Biden a smaller lead but confirms he is winning Arizona:
Right now that potential trade looks tilted in favor of the Democrats. Let's start in Arizona, where Joe Biden has moved out to a small lead, ahead by three points, an edge that's increased from the tied race we found in July. It was then we first saw concern about COVID and the president's handling of it putting the state in play. Though that virus concern has come off its highs of the summer, it remains for a sizable two-thirds of voters, and is still closely tied to vote: the more concerned voters are, the less likely they are to be voting for President Trump.
And in a week that raised more questions about what the president knew about the virus early on, Arizonans feel that the nation's death toll could have been mitigated had plans been made sooner, and more pin blame on the administration for making the outbreak worse than give it credit for what it did do. Most voters think the administration could still be doing more right now to combat the virus. And so, on balance, Biden comes away with a 13-point lead on who would better handle the outbreak.
The economic fallout from the pandemic is certainly affecting things here too: more than half say they've felt at least some financial impact from it, and they're voting for Biden, 57%-32%.
Also:
Analysts have pointed to changing demographics in Arizona, with many recent immigrants and Americans from other parts of the country moving there in recent years, to account for the shifting priorities of the southwestern state's voters. After decades of having two Republican senators, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won in the 2018 midterm election to replace outgoing GOP Senator Jeff Flake.
Now, Republican Senator Martha McSally, who was appointed to serve out the remainder of the late Senator John McCain's term, appears to be trailing her Democratic opponent, astronaut Mark Kelly. The current RealClearPolitics average of Arizona polls shows Kelly with a lead of about 8.7 percentage points over McSally. The new CBS/YouGov survey shows Kelly with 49 percent support and McSally with 42 percent—a lead of 7 percentage points for the Democratic contender.
Most other recent polls show Biden leading Trump in Arizona. Polling conducted by Fox News from August 29 to September 1 had the Democratic challenger up 9 percentage points, backed by 49 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who supported the president. A CNBC/Change Research poll from September 4 to 6 showed Biden leading by 4 percentage points, with 49 percent support as opposed to 45 percent for Trump.
Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Arizona Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Biden, Kelly and their fellow Arizona Democrats campaigns:
Biden-Harris
Mark Kelly
Hiral Tiperneni
Tom O’Halleran
Arizona Democratic Party
Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee