There are a lot of reasons to be for Elizabeth Warren, but number one is this: she is the only candidate who can genuinely unite the party and not only defeat Trump, but truly change the dysfunction in DC. To some of you, that might be counter-intuitive because she is strongly in the progressive camp. But watching the dynamics in play in this primary, I believe that only a progressive like Warren can pull off the party unity we need to win the election and then pass major legislation that will usher in a new progressive era in American politics.
One week out from the Iowa caucuses, with early voting mailings starting to drop in other states, one thing is clear in terms of the horse race: the Sanders campaign is on a roll, surging in the national polls, and the clear frontrunner in Iowa and New Hampshire right now. My friends running the Sanders campaign deserve an extraordinary amount of credit for a superbly run campaign. He might well win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, and with California added to Super Tuesday, win there and get the most delegates on that day.
But here’s my big fear: the rest of the Democratic Party is adamantly opposed to accepting Bernie as their nominee. Whether it’s Biden or Bloomberg or Buttigieg (what is it with these white guys whose names start with B?), or even Klobuchar if she surprises everyone with a last minute surge into the top to in Iowa, an establishment favorite would become the Hillary in this campaign as all the more moderate Democrats and donors rally behind them in an “anybody but Bernie” firefight. You thought 2016 was ugly? Doing it all over again would be far worse, as all the old vitriol, all the nasty social media, and yes, all the right wing and Russian troll farms feeding the flames would make it even more damaging. That possibility, of another ugly as sin fight to the finish between Bernie and an establishment favorite, is the worst thing that could happen to Democrats. Even more than a brokered convention, more on that in a moment.
Another scenario is that Biden surprises and wins Iowa, in which case he is almost certainly the nominee: I don’t believe anyone can stop him if after a challenging campaign he proves himself in Iowa. But does that in any way diminish the fight with Bernie if Bernie finished a strong 2nd, or wins the initial body count as voters walk in while Biden wins the delegate count? Still the same long, drawn out, bitter fight between the two of them.
But those are not the only scenarios, let me play out a couple of others for you. The first is that Warren wins in Iowa, which gives her the momentum to win those other early states and CA. Bernie will still be doing well, he’s not going away because his supporters are loyal and fired up, and his campaign is brilliantly run; an establishment favorite or maybe even two may also emerge. Here’s the thing: a 3 or 4 way race will still be tough, but 40 years in politics has taught me that races with more than two candidates just don’t have the edge and bitterness that two person races do. We have seen how that plays out in the primary so far: while there have certainly been disagreements, candidates are keeping their attacks relatively light, knowing that if they hit too hard, voters have other candidates to choose from. But if Elizabeth gets the early momentum, she will be hard to stop.
What about the scenario where Bernie wins and Elizabeth is a strong 2nd? Whichever centrist candidate is 3rd certainly stays in the race, and Bloomberg is still looming in the race thereafter. Another long multi-candidate race, and a strong chance of a brokered convention.
A brokered convention keeps a lot of people up at night, and there’s no doubt it will be a mess- not my favorite thing at all. But given how fractured this party is, maybe some forced deal making and compromise won’t be the worst possible thing. Maybe the candidates and campaigns with big numbers of delegates can find a solution that will get to the ultimate goal of beating Trump, which they all know is far more important than anything else.
Scenarios aside, here’s what I hope people will understand: neither Bernie nor a classic establishment Democrat can unite this party. Bernie because of all the bitterness from the 2016 fight, and the resentment of his never actually being a Democrat; and all of the fears of him not being able to win because of being a socialist. And an establishment Democrat may not get the same level of blowback that Hillary did, but especially after a long bitter nominating fight with Bernie, there are just too many young alienated progressives who can’t easily accept another establishment candidate. The fear of Trump might overcome the progressive disillusionment; a strong populist message and platform would help a lot. But a centrist candidate does endanger our nominee because of those feelings.
Elizabeth Warren is our best bridge candidate by far. Hard core Bernie folk won’t be happy with anyone but him; establishment folk will be nervous about having a strong progressive as the nominee. But Warren has enough strength and relationships with both sides to get those factions united.
Uniting the party is not just important in terms of beating Trump. Once we have a new Democratic president and Senate, we have to bring both parts of the party together to govern. I fear that Bernie won’t be able to pull that off on the progressive side; and I fear that a Biden or Bloomberg or Buttigieg will bring us back to the politics of 2010, where a modest agenda and message brings us a deflated base and a terrible midterm election.
Elizabeth Warren is the candidate that can unite Democrats, win over working class swing voters with a populist reform message, and then govern effectively. It’s time to make her our nominee.