This is the thirteenth in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. We’ll cover the site-by-site electoral vote projections for the 15 sites we’re tracking, then move on to the state-by-state polling for the swing states. All the numbers are from Friday 10/16.
But first, because it’s just so good at this point in the campaign, the big picture. The last two weeks have been good to Biden (like the two weeks before that). The public reaction to Trump’s disastrous first (and only?) debate performance, followed by his contracting COVID-19, should now be fully baked into the numbers. Among the 13 sites updating during that time, 9 showed movement favoring Biden, 2 showed Biden remaining steady (with a winning number of EVs), and only 2 showed a Biden decrease. And Trump continues to shoot himself in the foot: in the dueling town halls on 10/14, Biden beat Trump in the ratings, and Trump’s performance was widely panned as he spewed wild conspiracy theories about Q-Anon, defended retweets of claims Biden had Seal Team 6 killed, and more.
Fivethirtyeight: Biden 346, Trump 192 (Biden +13). The fivethirtyeight forecast page has all kinds of goodies, including their chart of election simulations (Biden is listed as winning 87 of every 100 simulations, compared to 79 two weeks ago), a “snake chart” ordering states from bluest to reddest, and more. Right now the weakest D states are AZ, FL, GA and NC — none of which Biden actually needs to win - along with the ME-2 and NE-2 congressional districts. The weakest R states are OH, IA, and TX.
Ourprogress.org: Biden 289, Trump 125, 124 tossups (updated 10/15; no change). Toss-ups are FL, GA, IA, NC, OH, and TX. The no toss-up option shows Biden 389, Trump 149 (no change).
PredictIt markets: Biden 335, Trump 203 (updated daily; no change). Closest states are FL and NC (tilt D) and GA (tilt R); the tossup is ME’s 2nd district.
ElectionProjection.com: Biden 334, Trump 204 (updated 10/15; Biden +15). Weakest D states are AZ, FL, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA, and WI; weakest R states are GA, IA, and OH.
JHK model: Biden 351, Trump 187 (updated 10/15; Biden +16). Weakest D states are GA and IA; weakest R state is OH.
Princeton Election Consortium: Biden 351, Trump 187 (updated daily; Biden -6). ‘Moneyball’ states are AZ, NV, and PA, while the link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows GA and IA as tossups.
CNN: Biden 290, Trump 163, 85 tossups (updated 10/7; Biden +21). Tossups are FL, GA, IA, NC, OH, and the ME-2 district.
The Economist: Biden 343, Trump 195 (updated daily; Biden +8). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are GA, IA, NC and OH.
Electoral-vote.com: Biden 356, Trump 182, ties 0 (updated daily; Biden +32, Trump +18 as ties drop out). Weakest D states are FL, GA, IA and NC; weakest R states are AK, AR, OH and TX.
Plural Vote: Biden 329, Trump 209 (updated daily; Biden +7). Weakest D states are AZ and FL; weakest R state is TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: Biden 320, Trump 143, 75 tossups (October update; Biden +2, Trump +20 as toss-ups decrease). Tossups are GA, IA, NC, and TX.
Inside Elections: Biden 319, Trump 188, 31 tossups (no update). Tossups are GA and NC. Weakest D states remain AZ, FL, WI; weakest R states remain IA, OH, and TX.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Biden 290, Trump 163, 85 tossups (updated 10/8; Biden +11, tossups +5). Tossups are FL, GA, IA, NC, and OH.
Cook Political Report: Biden 290, Trump 163, 85 tossups (no update). Tossups are GA, IA, NC, and TX.
Real Clear Politics: Biden 216, Trump 125, 197 tossups (updated daily; Biden -10, tossups +10). The no toss-up map still shows Biden 375, Trump 163 (no change).
State-by-state: Here are current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP, in order of largest to smallest margins for Biden as predicted by 538.
(1) MI: Spreads are Biden +7.8 (538, up 1.1) and Biden +7.2 (RCP).
(2) WI: Spreads are Biden +7.7 (538, up 1.3) and Biden +6.3 (RCP).
(3) PA: Spreads are Biden +6.8 (538, up 1.3) and Biden +5.6 (RCP).
(4) NV: Spreads are Biden +6.4 (538, up 0.7) and Biden +5.2 (RCP). The only Clinton 2016 state on this list, and looking well out of reach for Trump.
(5) FL: Spreads are Biden +3.9 (538, up 1.9) and Biden +1.4 (RCP).
(6) AZ: Spreads are Biden +3.8 (538, up 0.6) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(7) NC: Spreads are Biden +3.1 (538, up 2.1) and Biden +2.7 (RCP).
(8) GA: Spreads are Biden +1.3 (538, up 1.0) and Biden +1.2 (RCP). GA continues moving back towards Biden.
(9) IA: Spreads are Biden +0.2 (538, up 1.2) and Biden +1.2 (RCP).
(10) OH: Spreads are Trump +0.2 (538, Biden down 0.8) and Biden +0.6 (RCP).
(11) TX: Spreads are Trump +1.4 (538, Biden up 0.9) and Trump +4.4 (RCP).
(12) AK: Trump +4.8 (538, Biden down 2.0) and Trump +4.5 (RCP). Multiple new polls have appeared, showing much the same lead for Trump. However, most of these are from SurveyMonkey, which has a very poor rating for its political polling.
(13) AR: Spreads are Trump +13.9 (538) and Trump +2.0 (RCP). Multiple recent polls have appeared (in 538 only), telling much the same story: even Trump is not horrible enough to turn AR blue. However, like AK, these are almost all from SurveyMonkey.
We now have only 2½ weeks until election day — and more than 23 million people have already voted by mail or early in-person voting. Trump is rapidly running out of time and out of opportunities to change the narrative. The Rust Belt trifecta that handed Trump the Presidency in 2016 (MI, WI, PA) have all shown consistent Biden leads outside the margin of error for months, with the gap widening in recent weeks. With Biden leading by close to 7 pts or better in all 3 states, these are the top-tier pick-ups for the Democrats, and sufficient to make Biden the next President. But there’s more: the second tier of possible pick-ups (NC, FL, and AZ) all have Biden leads of 3-4 points. With NC and AZ featuring key Senate races where D wins over R incumbents seem very likely, Biden could benefit from those races. A final tier consists of states that appear to be genuine toss-ups, with either Biden or Trump leading by margins of less than 1.5 pts (IA, OH, GA, and TX). Biden does not need ANY of these second- or third-tier races to win the Presidency, but is likely to win at least several of them, padding his margin of victory.
I’ll be back on the Sunday or Monday before the election with a final overview for the Presidential race.