Hurricane Zeta. There has never been a hurricane starting with the letter Z. Zeta was just upgraded this afternoon when the air force hurricane hunter aircraft’s radar recorded 80mph surface winds. In only one year, 2005, the National Hurricane center ran out of names and used the beginning of the Greek alphabet for late season storms. On December 30, 2005 tropical storm Zeta formed off the Cape Verde islands, the only previous hurricane season to have 27 named storms. Weather models are forecasting a possible 28th storm over the next 2 weeks, so we could see a new record high number of tropical storms this year. Zeta is not forecast to become a major hurricane so the Gulf coast will likely not suffer heavy damage. We are fortunate that wind shear and dry air intrusion have kept the intensity of this year’s hurricanes below category 5. The north Atlantic has had record high heat content and the main development region for hurricanes has tied last year’s record heat content. This season’s hurricanes had the potential to be far more intense.
The hurricane center is forecasting Zeta to weaken to a tropical storm over the Yucatan peninsula, then intensify back into a hurricane over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Because the shelf waters of the northern Gulf have cooled with the passing of fall cold fronts the intensification is forecast to end when Zeta reaches the continental shelf of the northern Gulf. The latest forecast is that Zeta will make landfall at category 1 with winds of about 80 miles per hour.
The tropical Atlantic still contains a stunning amount of heat that could support a major hurricane as intense as category 5 in the Caribbean, the Bahamas, Florida and, perhaps, the Carolinas. Hurricane season is far from over on this warm late October day in the south.
The maximum intensity of the Atlantic hurricanes has been increasing as the Atlantic takes up more and more heat because of the effects of greenhouse gases released by human activities. We have lived through an unprecedented number of destructive intense hurricanes over the past decade in the Atlantic basin. There is no evidence of the trend is going slowing down.