We are at the preelection point now where in 2016 Clinton’s polling numbers took a nose dive after Comey's email lap top October surprise. That nose dive is what lead to all the conversations about polling being wrong in 2016, whereas the fact is that the late polling was approximately correct.
Now, in 2020, we are at the point where the effects of the Biden victory in the final debate are beginning to show up in the polling. Along with that we have the stock market loosing 1500 points in the last two days, the Covid rate increasing dramatically, the tanking economy, (its the Covid Economy stupid) and the Barrett confirmation motivated Democrats to get out the vote. And last but not least this bazaar story about Trump stranding rally goers out in below freezing temperatures in Nebraska.
Since about the middle of September I have bee averaging the election forecasts in 538 and the Economist. When I started the average was about 78. Since then it has slowly been trending in Biden’s direction. Last week the average was 90.5. Today it is 92.5.
Unlike the week before the election in 2016 when Clinton’s polling averages went dramatically down, now in 2020 Biden’s numbers are quite dramatically trending upwards nationally and in swing states. There is nothing likely that would alter this long standing trend. However, nothing alters the need to keep pounding away and getting out the vote. Just keep in mind that we are about to enter a political period with an historically unusual window of opportunity for progressives. the bigger the landslide, the more progressive the future course of America.