Circular Tracing:
Lots of Threads to Pull - Bring the Comments On.
Last night my brother sent me a link to an article from The Atlantic, that funny enough, I had just recently sent to another brother. This article discussed how Covid has unusually high clumping in clusters that indicate uneven spreading. Some clumping is expected in random processes, though our current observations are much higher. This means efforts to reduce R0 while having value, may benefit from efforts aimed at k. Normally we think k is constant, however currently this proves not true. For society this means backward tracing should take precedence over forward tracing meaning try to figure where a positive became infected as opposed to try to figure whom that positive has infected. Test types could then be matched for better efficiency and effectiveness to groups backward and forward. This article led me to some thoughts that I sent this brother regarding small insular highly intra-connected groups. While I was sending these to him another brother sent me a thought for the day which turned into interesting conversation. These had many ideas worthy of exploration so now I’m sharing with you. Please explore! As in most conversations, topics wonder, bounce, and occasionally interweave.
I’m sure screen shotting would be easier though that would dox, so here’s a typed transcript.
Me: Here’s a thought for you.
- It seems White House is doing forward tracing only. Such started with Hicks though as others were found getting earlier, they became new starting places moving forward.
- Was such an attempt to make Hicks a scapegoat?
- Does forward only tracing matter inside a small insular group? I can go clockwise 90 or counterclockwise for 270. I’ll still hit the same spot. Alternately, “Wheel of Friends,” type network, I go to any node and there’s a path forward to the desired original node. Like a Jersey left.
Brother: Thought of the day. In Europe, most people see sick leave as a way to keep everyone else safe so overall capacity is highest. US sees sick leave as way for low performer to recover more quickly so they can quickly get back to work. Parts of India shift you to “unclean“ for the rest of your life. These views are cooked into culture, each is going to struggle. US is going to have really tough time accepting that “available” to work (no longer on deathbed) but didn’t is better for overall org. And other parts of the world might need to stop shunning when recovery is complete. And who likes a smug EU saying “logically this is best.”
Me: Sick leave is an interesting topic. VENT IN HQ follows European thinking, if you’re sick, get the fuck out, we don’t want it.
Me: Brings a different thought that Vice Admiral Donegan would regularly ask, “which is more important to avoid, tired leaders or tired troops?“
Brother: Corporate US celebrates everyone who toughed it out, back to work same day as surgery, 20 years without a single sick day, … fired if you take more than three without a doctor’s note, endless examples. Now same expectations are driving White House work.
Brother: If you aren’t performing, you are slacking. Anyone else who gets sick can take care of themselves.
Me: this, in turn, relates to differences of opinion between surface navy and aviators as to the purpose of the duty officer. Surface navy see the duty as a point to collect and collate information and relay to the commander for decision action. Aviation navy see the duty as the person to initiate action so as to protect the rest of all other aviators such that they can fly the next day’s missions. The commander is one of those aviators.
Me: and to all that, remember perfect attendance awards. I thought those should be marks of shame.
Me: @India way of thinking, isn’t the 737 now the safest airplane? Aren’t your recovered now full of antibodies?
Brother: Taylorism at its best. We pay others to think. If you aren’t here, you can’t do.
Me: Seems spell check got me, “vent in” is CENTCOM.
Brother: Speaking of Boeing, is it true South Carolina built 787 is crap (nearing EU ban) while Seattle built is ok?
Me: No idea but wouldn’t be surprised.
Me: Does that in any way tie to right to work? Or state educational standard differences? Mindsets, blue states tend to consider the group (European) while red state only cares about self? Sum of all of the above?
Me: Also, how does that relate to new tankers, as I believe they’ve had similar issues? How about Boeing’s space capsule and losing to fucking Musk?
Me: just got an email, didn’t get the TACAIR job. Haven’t heard back from Scaled either.
Me: Different thought. AutoCorrect should use different defaults for swipe and audio entered words as opposed to letter by letter typed words. It should also color code adjusted words until you hit send. Perhaps texting being more conversational than papers should also be less sensitive.
Me: I too can be a “product owner.”
Brother: Need tibetan test that one
Brother: To beta test. It failed.
Me: Well, you know it wasn’t Chinese programmed.
Saturday, Jan 16, 2021 · 10:38:15 PM +00:00
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Fffflats
I’ve recently discovered 3 Blue 1 Brown. They do good work with mathematical concept visualizations. I’m adding a link to their pandemic piece in any of my stories having to do with pandemic. Of note to this particular story as it relates to the Trump Administration, we should point out 3 Blue 1 Brown suggests we should adapt method to circumstances, use multiple methods in parallel, and also shows broad testing as the most significant reduction contributor. This needs highlighting as it is still inadequate. Some might say deliberately so. See Vanity Fair & GQ.