This concludes my ongoing series about the 2020 Senate elections (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here). More than 92 million people have already voted in person or by mail, and with only 2 days until the election there’s no more time for any big surprises to upend any of the races. The Rs continue to be on defense on all fronts.
As usual, we’ll review the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts, then the polling averages provided by 270towin (270) and RealClearPolitics (RCP). Numbers are from Sunday 11/1:
538: D 52, R 48 (updated daily; D +1). Both the ‘Deluxe’ and ‘Classic’ models forecast the 52-48 split, while the ‘Lite’ (polling-only) version forecasts a 53-47 split. Toss-ups (less than a 60% chance for either candidate) include IA and the GA-Perdue seat.
DailyKos : D 48, R 49, 3 toss-ups (no change). This is based off of the DKos competitiveness map for Senate races, not the polling averages. Toss-ups are IA, ME, and NC.
Princeton Election Consortium: D 53, R 47 (updated daily; no change). AK, MT and ME are now the Senate “Moneyball” states.
Electoral-vote.com: D 53, R 46, ties 1 (updated daily; D +3). D pickups are AZ, CO, GA-Perdue, GA-Special, ME, MT and NC; R pickup is AL; tie is IA.
Rachel Bitecofer: D 50, R 47, toss-ups 3. (final forecast;). Allocating the 3 toss-ups based on current lean results in D 51, R 49. Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. IA and the two GA races are tossups, with IA leaning D and the GA seats leaning R.
Inside Elections: D 50, R 47, toss-ups 3 (updated 10/28; toss-ups +1). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Perdue, IA and MT.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 50, R 47, toss-ups 3 (updated 10/29; toss-ups +2). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME and IA; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Perdue, GA-special, and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 48, R 45, toss-ups 7 (updated 10/29; no change). Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are GA-Perdue, GA-Special, IA, ME, MT, NC and SC.
RealClearPolitics: D 45, R 46, toss-ups 9 (updated daily; no change). Ds pick up only CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are AZ, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MN, MT, NC, and SC. RCP’s no toss-up option shows a 50-50 split.
6 of the 9 models we are now tracking (7, including RCP’s no toss-up map) favor the Ds to win 50 seats or more, the same as 2 weeks ago. None of them forecast an outright R majority, as the GOP continues to play defense everywhere. Now for the individual races:
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +9.2 (270; no change), D +8.5 (RCP).
MI (Peters/D vs James/R): D +8.5 (270; up 3.1), D +7.5 (RCP). In the only D seat on our list, Peters is in no danger.
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +5.8 (270; up 0.4), D +4.7 (RCP).
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +3.2 (270; down 0.8), D +4.0 (RCP). Gideon’s average shrinks a little.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +2.7 (270; down 0.2), D +3.8 (RCP). Cunningham’s lead stabilizes around two-and-a-half pts. He may have stopped the bleeding from his sex scandal.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): D +2.6 (270; up 2.6), D +0.7 (RCP). This race is now clearly tilting toward Ossoff and the Ds.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +1.4 (270; up 0.2), R +0.4 (RCP). Tightening here as well.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): R +0.8 (270; no change), R +0.8 (RCP — average of 4 most recent polls). With IA, the swingiest seat.
KS (Bollier/D vs Marshall/R): R +2.0 (270; D up 1.6), R +4.0 (RCP — single most recent poll). Hopefully some last-minute momentum towards Bollier here.
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): R +2.4 (270; D down 1.2), R +4.5 (RCP —average of 2 October polls). There may be some momentum back towards Graham here.
AK (Gross/I vs Sullivan/R): R +4.7 (270; D up 0.8), R +8.0 (RCP-single most recent poll). Still too much of a stretch for the Ds, unless there’s a “blue wave” that hits Alaska.
The wild card:
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs multiple others). Warnock has increased his lead in the top spot in this race (37% on the RCP average), but remains well short of the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff. This one is likely to be determined in a runoff, after we already know who will control the Senate.
And the man we’d love to see lose:
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +9.5 (270; unchanged); R +9.0 (RCP — the only October poll). It was too much to hope for.
Entering the last few days, we have the same 4 top-tier D opportunities we’ve had for months: AZ, CO, ME and NC. I’m going to officially predict, at this point, that the Democrats will wind up with at least 50 seats in the Senate. Even if we assume an outsize systematic polling error of up to 3 pts against the GOP, they likely lose all these seats (although NC is iffy; I assume the Ds lose the AL seat).
That said, your position in the Senate is a lot better if you control more than 50, and wouldn’t have to count on a Vice President Harris to take up residence to break all the ties we would get with a unified, destructive GOP opposition. A good night for the Ds would result in 2 more pickups (GA-Perdue and IA). Finally, a Blue Wave election (where up to a 3-pt systematic polling error is working against the Ds) means that MT, SC, and KS are all in reach. So I see a 55-seat ceiling for the Ds, although the GA-Special election could pad that margin with another. My personal prediction is officially 51 — add yours in the poll or comments below! For the sake of a Biden Presidency’s success (and the future of the nation and the world), let’s have hopefor a greater than 50-seat majority.
