We have made it. After a long, grueling, and exhausting campaign, the 2020 election is finally here. 1,455 days since the 2016 election and we are ready to vote on the presidency yet again. But the presidency is not the only thing on the line, as Americans will also be voting for the US Senate, the US House, state governors, state executive row officers, state legislatures, local officials, and on statewide ballot referenda. It will be a busy election night with a ton to follow, and thankfully, I’m here to break it all down. Without further ado, here is what to expect, what to follow, and everything to know for Election 2020. It’s AJD7’s guide to the 2020 election:
US Presidential Election
As it stands currently, Joe Biden has somewhere between an 89% and 96% chance of winning the presidency tomorrow, and I concur with those probabilities. He enters Election Day with a commanding national lead of about 8.5 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average, although among higher quality polls, it’s closer to 10 points. His lead in the most likely tipping point state, Pennsylvania, is also large although slightly smaller than his national one. Biden has made gains across the board, taking throttling edges in the key “Blue Wall” states of 2016, especially Michigan and Wisconsin. He has clawed back Democratic losses to put Iowa and Ohio on a knife’s edge, and is on the verge of scoring the most significant blue breakthrough in the Sun Belt since Bill Clinton, putting states like Georgia and Texas in the tossup category, in addition to North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona. Biden’s gains have come mostly with white voters, as he hits the Democratic baseline with black voters and is actually under-performing slightly with Hispanics. But among whites, Biden has both eaten into Trump’s white working class edge significantly, and is producing unprecedentedly large leads among white voters with a college degree.
Most voters though still see this race as tight. Many are heeding the advice of The Who and won’t get fooled again by Donald Trump. For Democrats in particular, 2016 PTSD is real. Still, we should distinguish between the present condition and 2016. In 2016 Hillary Clinton entered Election Day with about a 4 point lead in national polls. Biden’s lead is double that. Her lead in the likely tipping point states was similar, if not slightly smaller than 4 points. Today Biden’s lead in the likely tipping point is closer to 6 points. The 2016 FiveThirtyEight model gave Trump a 29% chance to win on Election Day, and it had been as high as 35% just a few days prior before Clinton got a late dead cat bounce. Today it gives Trump just a 10% chance. Those probabilities are not similar. As Harry Enten famously wrote in 2016, Trump was just a normal polling error away from winning the presidency. Today, he needs a polling error of large and historic proportions to win.
If there’s one question I have about the current presidential polling, it’s probably the divide between state, national, and district-level polling. State polling shows a Biden lead akin to 7ish points, national polling shows a Biden lead of 8.5-9ish points, and the district-level polling shows a Biden lead blowing into the double digits. Indeed, some of Biden’s best indicators have come at the congressional district level in both non-partisan and partisan polls released by Democrats and Republicans. In those polls Biden often runs nearly 10 points ahead of Clinton, which would put him on pace for a 12 point popular vote victory. It’s hard to know which of the three indicators will be most correct, but someone’s going to be wrong. If Biden beats his polls by a couple points across the board and wins by 11 in the popular vote, district polls will have been the indicator flashing red all along.
Overall, Biden is in position to win this election and is heavily favored. But miracles do happen. Just ask the 1980 US Olympic hockey team or the 2018 UMBC men’s basketball team. Trump winning is not an impossible scenario, but it is very unlikely based on everything we know about current polling. If Trump does win, it will not be similar to 2016. Instead it will reflect an industry-wide failure that may shake polling forever. There have been no indicators outside of shady Republican pollsters that Trump is close at the moment. It would be an earthquake if he won. But he probably won’t.
Beyond that, here is a quick run through of the ten most important swing states to watch, and who is roughly favored to win them:
- Michigan (16 EV’s): The Wolverine State has long been Biden’s most likely flip among states Trump won four years ago. He leads by a commanding 8 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and is very likely to gain Michigan.
- Wisconsin (10 EV’s): Throughout the winter and spring, Wisconsin looked like an incredibly tight and difficult state for Biden to win. But since the pandemic hit, Wisconsin has trended sharply Democratic. The Vice President now leads by 8.2 points in the average and is also quite likely to flip it and its 10 electoral votes.
- Pennsylvania (20 EV’s): If Biden takes each of the two preceding states, and holds onto Minnesota/Nevada/New Hampshire as expected, Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would give him the White House. He holds a steady and consistent lead that has seemed to have converged around ~6 or so points, with most polls showing between a 5 and 8 point Biden lead in that stat. It’s not quite as safe as Michigan and Wisconsin, but don’t mistake this: Biden is still clearly favored to win PA.
- Florida (29 EV’s): Florida is always a mess. The Forever Close State will probably be (guess what?) close again. Though Biden at times held a large lead in the Florida average, few people believed that to be the case and he enters Election Day with about 3.5 point lead in my personal average, although it’s a bit closer in the FiveThirtyEight average. Most all polls show Biden favored to win Florida, but that was the case in 2018 when Florida broke Democrats’ hearts, so it’s a clear tossup.
- North Carolina (15 EV’s): The Tar Heel State has had the least movement of almost any other state in the polls over the course of this race, with Biden almost always leading in the average by at least 1, but rarely more than 3. The polls are close here and a Trump win isn’t out of the question, though almost no polls (outside of partisan GOP ones) show the President leading North Carolina. Since NC comes in early, if Biden is on track to carry it, like Florida, it would be game over for the President. Regardless, North Carolina is a tossup.
- Arizona (11 EV’s): Arizona polling has been a bit odd. Higher quality polls have tended to show Biden leads closer to 5 points, while the lower quality polls tend to show Biden up by only a point or two. The average thus converges around 3 points, but there’s some real discrepancy here. It’s worth noting that polls have tended to underestimate Democratic support with Hispanics in the southwest, and Arizona is a prime state where we could see that error manifest (along with Texas). It’s never a good idea to guess what direction the polling error will go, but it’s something to be cognizant of. Arizona is a tossup.
- Georgia (16 EV’s): This will be mentioned in the Senate section, but there seems to be late movement in favor of Joe Biden in Georgia. He currently holds close to the largest lead he’s ever held in that state during the campaign and in particular got a handful of great polls this past week, showing him potentially breaking away. Biden is trying to become the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to carry Georgia and after years of teasing Team Blue, they feel they could now actually break through. Still, Biden’s lead is only 1.3%, so this is firmly a tossup state.
- Texas (38 EV’s): The most interesting question for Election Day to me is whether Biden can carry Texas. After a decade of jokes about “Texas turning blue”, it could very well happen in 2020. Trump holds just a 1 point lead in the polling average and polls underestimated Democrats in Texas in 2018. If polls underestimate Biden by as much as they underestimated Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, Biden would carry Texas with a bit of breathing room. Early voting has been through the roof in Texas, too, which could portend well for the Vice President. If Biden really gets a wave in the suburbs, Texas could fall. Which is why it’s also a tossup.
- Ohio (18 EV’s): If you just woke up from a coma you went into in 2012, you may be shocked to know that the Buckeye State, once the most pivotal in that election, is mostly an afterthought this time around. It isn’t terribly close to the nation’s center anymore and without many high profile downballot races, Ohio has mostly been ignored. But, in this seemingly strongly pro-D year, it is in play. My average has Trump up by a smidge, as does FiveThirtyEight at Trump +0.6. Ohio’s a tossup, albeit the least important one in this election.
- Iowa (6 EV’s): The narrative on the race in Iowa was very consistent …. until Saturday. The general consensus has long been that it’s a dead-heat, tossup in Iowa. Then the Des Moines Register’s Selzer poll, once profiled as America’s best poll by FiveThirtyEight, showed Trump +7 there Saturday night. Let’s just say that no one on either side believes that to be true, given that both candidates campaigned there this week. So it looks like an outlier, but the DMR/Selzer did foreshadow Trump’s runaway 9 point win in 2016. The similarity to four years ago gave many electoral observing Democrats deep anxiety, but it’s worth remembering this meme from Nate Silver. Always go with the averages, and even with the Trump +7 poll in the average, my average shows Biden +0.20 while 538 has Trump +1.4. Iowa’s still a tossup.
The path for Biden is rather simple. Hold the Clinton map, add MI + WI + PA and you’re home. He’s clearly favored in all three states, which is why he’s clearly favored to gain the presidency. Election night though could hold some surprises, and Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida will be pivotal since all three states will be known rather early. On the flip side, Wisconsin may not be known until Wednesday morning and PA/MI perhaps not until the end of the week. Thus, Biden would love to snag one of NC/FL/GA and end the intrigue early on Tuesday. According to various models, Biden’s chances of winning the White House if he wins any of those three states is 99%. Your author is comfortable bumping that up to 100%. There is no path for Donald Trump without all of those three states. Flipped around, Biden doesn’t need any of the three to win, but it would sure make election night a lot more calm for Democrats.
US Senate
The Republican Party currently holds a 53-47 majority but have been playing defense this entire cycle, and their situation in this chamber has gradually deteriorated. They still have about a 20-25% chance of remaining control depending on which statistical model you use, but there’s an equally likely probability that Democrats blow the doors off and surge to 54+ seats. The most likely scenario is somewhere in between, and the reasonable range of outcomes in my view is Democrats controlling between 49 and 55 seats, with 50 needed for control assuming Joe Biden is elected. If you want a more in depth look at the Senate, I wrote this a few weeks ago, but here’s a brief rundown of the key races to watch:
- Minnesota (D-held): Senator Tina Smith (D) has a high single digit lead over Republican Jason Lewis and remains likely to keep her seat.
- Michigan (D-held): Democratic Senator Gary Peters has been locked in an expensive and contentious battle with challenger John James, but Peters has remained consistently ahead in polls, holding around a 7 point lead in my average. Peters is favored to retain his seat.
- Alabama (D-held): This is the only seat Democrats are likely to lose, as Senator Doug Jones won in a flukey special election in 2017 but now faces a more conventional Republican opponent in Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville holds a double digit lead in this blood red state and is likely to restore Alabama to GOP control.
- Colorado (R-held): GOP Senator Cory Gardner was a wave baby back in 2014 and has badly mismanaged his hand in this blue trending state. He faces former Governor John Hickenlooper and has trailed by nearly double digits in the average for months. This is the likeliest Democratic gain.
- Arizona (R-held): The race in Arizona is a Special Election to fill the final two years of John McCain’s Senate term, who died in 2018. Appointed incumbent Martha McSally (R) has trailed astronaut Mark Kelly (D) by mid-to-high single digits since the spring and is a significant underdog.
- Maine (R-held): Susan Collins is one of the most notable Senators in the chamber, having served for 24 years and taken several high profile votes in recent years. For the first time in her career, she is considered an underdog to lose her seat in the Senate. Collins has not led a poll her own campaign didn’t sponsor since July 2019 and trails by 5 points in my average. You can never count out a four term incumbent, but it will be a real surprise if challenger Sara Gideon (D) is not elected to succeed Collins.
- North Carolina (R-held): This is the most expensive Senate race in American history and the one most likely to determine the Senate majority. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has trailed challenger Cal Cunningham wire-to-wire, even when the race was rocked by a sexting/infidelity scandal that hit Cunningham and the revelation that Tillis himself contracted COVID. Polls haven’t shifted in the weeks since then and Cunningham holds a consistent and solid, albeit not insurmountable, 4.0 point edge heading into Election Day.
- Iowa (R-held): Iowa has the most favorable trend for the GOP. When I wrote about the Senate in mid-October, this race seemed to be tilting toward Democrat Theresa Greenfield, but since then Republican Senator Joni Ernst has had a string of solid polls and my average is now nearly tied between the two candidates. Most importantly, the Des Moines Register’s final poll Saturday showed Ernst with a four point edge, though again that poll may have been too good to be true for R’s all around. This remains a tossup race, albeit one where Ernst seems to have momentum.
- Georgia-A (R-held): The biggest change since I wrote about the Senate a couple weeks ago has been a late Democratic surge in Georgia. Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff has now pulled ahead of Republican Senator David Perdue in the polls of Georgia, though the two are essentially tied in my average. There is a Libertarian in the race, which is relevant because if neither candidate gets >50% of the vote, like a 49.5-48.5 type race, it would go to a runoff election in January. It’s anyone’s guess who wins this race, though Ossoff seems to have the momentum heading into Tuesday, and it’s quite possible this could end up in a runoff given how close the polls are.
- Georgia-B (R-held): This race is a Special Election to fill the last 2 years of former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term, who retired last year due to ailing health. It’s a jungle election, which means all candidates run on one ballot and if no one receives more than 50%, it will end in a runoff in January. With multiple candidates on both sides, this is very likely to head to a January runoff. The Democrats seem certain to place Raphael Warnock in the runoff, whereas the intrigue is on the Republican side between Kelly Loeffler and Doug Collins. Both trail Warnock by 6-7 points in current runoff polling and there isn’t consensus on who is the stronger candidate.
- Montana (R-held): Another race that looks like a coin flip, the Montana clash of the titans pits Senator Steve Daines (R) against Governor Steve Bullock (D). Montana leans Republican at the federal level but the polls have been very tight, with my average putting Daines up just 1. Of the last 10 polls of the race, 5 have Daines up, 4 have Bullock up, and 1 shows a tie. Montana is on a knife’s edge right now.
- South Carolina (R-held): Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison has raised more money than any Senate candidate in US history in his bid to unseat Senator Lindsey Graham (R) in this conservative state. Harrison’s spending has narrowed the gap and endangered Graham, who leads by just 2 points in my average. Graham is favored due to South Carolina’s red hue, but the polls are tight enough that it would not be a total shock if Harrison unseats the incumbent.
- Kansas (R-held): The Democratic Party has not won a Senate race since 1932, but they have their best shot in a long time this year. Candidate Barbara Bollier (D) has run close with Republican Roger Marshall in the battle to replace retiring Senator Pat Roberts (R). Marshall leads by 2 points in my average, though the high undecideds probably lean Republican. That said, there’s a chance that a Libertarian candidate could split the GOP vote and Bollier has enough crossover appeal to put political observers on upset watch.
- Alaska (R-held): Democratically-aligned independent Al Gross is challenging Senator Dan Sullivan (R) in Alaska. Polls are limited in this sparsely populated and isolated state, though the ones that exist show Sullivan with a mid-single digits lead. Alaska polling is notoriously unpredictable, so while Sullivan enters Election Day favored, Alaska getting weird and sending Gross to the Senate is a legitimate scenario.
- Texas (R-held): Senator John Cornyn (R) has long been favored in Texas, partially because his opponent MJ Hegar (D) has struggled to get her name out to the massive electorate. Cornyn holds a consistent 4.5 point lead in my average, although with high undecideds, many of which lean Democratic. Cornyn is favored to retain his seat but with the early voting surge in Texas showing enthusiasm on the ground, a Hegar upset isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
- Kentucky (R-held): Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has faced expensive opposition from Amy McGrath (D) but Kentucky is extremely Republican, which means McConnell leads by around 10 points in the average and is likely to win a seventh term.
Simply put, the path to a Democratic majority consists of flipping CO+AZ+ME+NC and they are somewhere between heavily and slightly favored in all four races. Get those four, hang onto your expected holds (MN/MI), and you’re at 50. The coin flip races in Georgia, Iowa, and Montana, in addition to the Georgia special election, give Democrats an opportunity to pad their majority. Picking off any of SC/KS/AK/TX would be the hypothetical 54th or 55th seat in a tidal wave election. A great night for Democrats is 53-55 seats. A good night is 51-52 seats, while the GOP’s best scenario at this point is either holding the chamber, or limiting the losses to simply a 50-50 split.
US House
The Democratic Party is almost certain to retain control of the US House of Representatives, thanks to the sizable majority they already hold and the strong winds nationally. The generic ballot, often seen as the metric by which the national house picture is measured, pegs Democrats up nearly 8 points nationally, almost identical to two years ago. As a result, the question is not who will control the chamber (Speaker Pelosi will), but which party will gain seats. Most prognosticators, including your author, would say that the Democrats are favored to expand their majority. They currently hold 233 seats to 201 for the Republicans and 1 Libertarian. I see the Democratic Party gaining between 5 and 20 seats in the chamber, with their final total coming somewhere in the 240s most likely. If they can surpass the 247 seats Republicans held from 2015-17, it would be the widest House majority since the 111th Congress which convened from 2009-2011.
Democratic gains are likely to come in suburban districts where the President and the Republican Party have seen their support erode even further than it had two years ago. These districts to watch include IN-05, MO-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, GA-07, AZ-06, MI-03, OH-01, PA-01, NY-02, NE-02, and AR-02. However, they could also gain seats in more middle class districts that are either white northern or mixed race Sun Belt in composition, including MT-AL, AK-AL, CA-25, MN-01, IL-13, PA-10, NC-08, CO-03, NJ-02, and VA-05. The latter three races are maybe the most interesting in the whole chamber. They feature a gun-toting/potentially QAnon-supporting GOP candidate in a red district (CO-03), a party-switching GOP incumbent who’s now an underdog in what could be the biggest political self-own of the year (NJ-02), and a fervent social conservative who toppled the GOP incumbent in a primary against a young black doctor in a conservative rural district (VA-05).
Only a few Democratically-held seats are in any danger of flipping. The most likely (in rough order) are MN-07, OK-05, NY-11, NM-02, UT-04, and NY-22. The first one on that list is an underdog (Colin Peterson), while the next two are 50-50 races and the last three are small favorites that could flip on a good GOP night. All told, the President’s perilous position has endangered Republicans across the map and amazingly, just two years after losing 40 House seats, the GOP looks more likely than not to lose even more. And on a bad night, those losses could total an additional 15-20 seats.
Governors
Not many states hold gubernatorial elections in presidential years, though a few do. Even fewer is the list of competitive races. Republicans are almost certain to retain their grip on Indiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia. Democrats are almost certain to retain Delaware and Washington, which leaves just three competitive gubernatorial races: NC, MT, and MO.
- North Carolina: While not quite “almost certain”, this race is close to being wrapped up for the Democrats. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (D) is popular and leads Republican challenger Dan Forest by 10 points in the average. Cooper is thus very likely to win re-election and keep North Carolina blue.
- Montana: Despite Montana’s red lean federally, it has a strong culture of electing Democrats at the state level, which has resulted in Republicans having not won a gubernatorial race since 2000. US Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) is trying to break the drought against Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (D). The polls are close, though Gianforte generally leads by low single-digits. The race tilts Republican but a good night for Team Blue nationwide and Cooney could easily extend the streak and keep the Montana Governor’s mansion in Democratic hands.
- Missouri: Democrats have put up a strong challenge in conservative Missouri for the Governor’s mansion, but are still underdogs. State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D) is challenging incumbent Governor Mike Parsons (R) and has narrowed the deficit to mid-single digits, but closing the gap will be difficult in a red state like Missouri. Parsons is popular and popular Governors almost never lose re-election. As a result, this race leans Republican.
Other Statewide Intrigue
Races to watch:
- Montana AG, SoS, Auditor, and Superintendent of Public Instruction: A lot of statewide offices are up in Montana besides just the Governorship and the Senate race. Republican incumbents are running for re-election for SoS and Superintendent, with the former being favored while the latter race expected to be closer. Open seat races are raging for AG and Auditor, and while the races probably tilt to the GOP since Montana leans red overall, on a good Democratic night the party could feasibly win any or all of these offices.
- Pennsylvania AG & Auditor: Incumbent AG Josh Shapiro (D) is running for re-election in the swing state of Pennsylvania and is strongly favored to win another term, while the Auditor race is an open seat. With national winds favoring Democrats, they have a small lead for Auditor in polls but with high undecideds, there’s some uncertainty here.
- North Carolina EVERYTHING: There are 8 offices up for election in North Carolina + three State Supreme Court Seats. The Council of State offices are AG, SoS, Lt. Gov., Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, and Superintendent of Public Instruction. I’m not going to bore readers with the details of each individual race but I will say that incumbent AG Josh Stein (D) is seen as a favorite, as is longtime SoS Elaine Marshall (D). Everything else is some degree of a tossup. The State Supreme Court currently has a 6-1 liberal majority and three incumbents are up for re-election, two liberals and one conservative. Thus, liberals cannot lose the majority even if they lose all three races. If they win all three races though, they could gain a unanimous 7-0 court. Simply put, if you live in the Tar Heel state, there’s a lot on your ballot.
- Washington Lt. Gov., SoS, and Superintendent of Public Instruction: The former is a race between two Democrats, which is only interesting because there’s a decent chance one of the two could become Governor, given how much speculation there is about Gov. Jay Inslee joining Joe Biden’s cabinet. The SoS race has a Republican incumbent, a rarity in a liberal state like Washington. Inc. Kim Wyman (R) is seeking a third term against challenger Gael Tarleton after winning re-election four years ago. That race seems to be a tossup, though perhaps tilting towards Wyman. Finally, the Superintendent of Public Instruction race has a Democratic incumbent (Chris Reykdal) who was elected by just one point for years ago, and is being challenged by a Republican who argues against the incumbent’s mandate for sex education in public schools. The incumbent is probably the favorite given Washington’s blue hue but it’s tough to predict these kinds of races.
- Michigan Supreme Court: The State of Michigan currently has a 4-3 conservative state Supreme Court but voters will be voting on two slots, one held by an incumbent liberal and an open seat held by a retiring conservative. The incumbent is likely to be re-elected, so it comes down to whether liberal Elizabeth Welch can edge out either of the two conservative challengers Mary Kelly or Brock Swartzle. Doing so would give liberals a majority on the court, which could have huge implications, given that the current court recently ruled 4-3 to limit Governor Whitmer’s (D) power.
- Ohio Supreme Court: The Ohio Supreme Court currently has a 5-2 conservative majority but both incumbents up for re-election are conservatives. Democrats flipped two seats on the court in 2018 and if they can replicate that in 2020, they would take a 4-3 majority on the court, potentially giving them a backstop to limit Republican-influenced redistricting (as happened in Pennsylvania, for example).
State Legislatures
With strong winds at their backs, Democrats are attempting to chip away further at GOP power at the state level after making a healthy dent in 2018. This is a particularly important content as these will be the last elections before 2021 redistricting, meaning that many of the races listed here will determine who has the power to draw the maps in a given state and potentially enact a gerrymander for a decade. The key chambers to watch are as follows:
- New Hampshire House/Senate: Democrats hold both chambers in the Granite State. The lower chamber has an astonishing 400 members and generally blows with the national winds (read: favoring Dems this year) while the upper chamber is leaning towards the Democrats as well.
- Arizona House/Senate: Republicans hold both chambers of the legislature in Arizona, giving them unified control of state government. Both chambers are being closely contested and observers now generally believe that Democrats are slightly favored to flip both the House and Senate. Taking either of which would break the GOP trifecta in the Valley of the Sun.
- Minnesota House/Senate: Democrats control the lower chamber, while Republicans control the upper chamber. Given strong polling overall for Team Blue in Minnesota, they are strongly favored to retain the House, while the narrow GOP control of the Senate is now in grave danger and analysts favor the Democrats to snag the majority in that chamber. Doing so would give them a trifecta in Minnesota and the ability to gerrymander the GOP.
- Iowa House: Republicans currently have the trifecta in Iowa. Half of the seats in the Senate are up but it doesn’t give Democrats a viable map to reclaiming that chamber. However, all 100 House seats are up for election and the narrow 53-47 GOP edge is in danger, with many rating this chamber as a tossup. A Dem flip would bust up unified Republican control of Iowa.
- Michigan House: Republicans hold both chambers of the legislature in Michigan thanks to a brutal gerrymander. The Senate is not up in presidential years but the House is, and the GOP holds a similarly narrow 58-52 majority. This is a hotly contested battle as well and observers view it as a tossup. Though the existence of Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) and an independent redistricting committee means this election has few implications for redistricting, a Dem flip could increase the probability of an infrastructure package in Michigan at long last.
- Texas House: The most watched state legislative battle is here in Texas. Republicans drew what they thought was a gerrymander in 2011 but it has since collapsed into what political geeks refer to as a “dummymander”, meaning that it’s Democrats who could win a majority of seats without winning a majority of votes. The Democratic Party has fielded a strong campaign to capitalize on that opportunity and the chamber is viewed as a tossup. If the Texas House flips blue it would end the GOP trifecta in Texas for the first time since 2002 and most crucially, give Democrats a seat at the redistricting table in 2021 for a state that has over 30 congressional districts.
- North Carolina House/Senate: Republicans had to pass a new gerrymander a few years ago after a court struck down the old one, and while it’s less brutal, it’s still pretty rough for Democrats. That said, in a potential blue wave environment like this one, there is a path for Dems to take control of the State House or State Senate (or both) in North Carolina. The latter probably requires also winning the aforementioned Lt. Gov. race to break the tie. Flipping either NC chamber is probably only a 20-30% probability, but that’s a real scenario that should be considered. Though Democrats are likely to keep the Governor’s mansion (see above), the Governor has no say in redistricting in NC, so taking either chamber would be massive.
- Pennsylvania House/Senate: Similar to North Carolina, Republicans in Pennsylvania hold the legislature thanks to a brutal gerrymander but in a wave-like environment, the door has opened slightly to a Democratic majority in both chambers. Like NC, the odds still favor the GOP holding control but a path is there. Unlike NC though, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor has a say over redistricting so that is not a factor here, but it would still give Dems more bargaining power to hold a legislative chamber during the redistricting process.
- Georgia House: A ruthless gerrymander keeps Republicans in control in Georgia, although there may be a tiny path to a Democratic majority in the Peach State’s legislature. It would only occur in a tidal wave scenario though and so most observers expect the GOP to keep power.
A good night for Democrats involves them busting GOP trifectas in Texas, Arizona, and Iowa, gaining a chamber in Michigan, gaining a trifecta in Minnesota, and keeping the legislature in New Hampshire. A great night is all of that + taking a chamber in either NC or PA (or both), while a good night for the GOP probably involves keeping control of the lower chambers in Iowa, Texas, and Michigan.
Finally, I should note that state legislatures in Wisconsin and Kansas are particularly important. Republicans will stay in control in both states after this election but Democrats will try to hold enough seats in both states to uphold the veto of their Democratic Governors, Tony Evers (WI) and Laura Kelly (KS). The state legislative analysis website CNalaysis favors Democrats to break GOP supermajorities in Kansas and hold just enough seats to sustain Evers’ veto in Wisconsin. Those would be significant developments, since it would allow the Democratic Party to ensure fair(er) maps in both states in the 2020s via the gubernatorial veto.
Statewide Ballot Referenda
One of the more interesting parts of American elections are statewide referenda, which give voters considerable autonomy over policy and are one of the rare moments of American direct democracy. This election offers a typical smorgasbord of statewide referenda across the 50 states, and here’s a quick sampling of some ballot questions to watch:
- Legalize Marijuana (AZ, MT, NJ, SD, MS): Regardless of what happens in the presidential election, this is shaping up to be the third straight great election for marijuana advocates. Four states will be voting to legalize recreational, some liberal like New Jersey and some conservative like South Dakota, yet polls in all four states currently show legalization is favored. Mississippi will be voting on medical marijuana legalization, and there too, the proposition is favored to pass. It’s a trend indicative of how rapidly the national mood has shifted in favor of the legalization of pot, which hit an all-time high last year.
- Eradicating vestiges of slavery (MS, NE, RI, UT): This year much of America came across the alarming reality of how much old slavery-related language is still in our state laws and codes. Four referenda are working to eradicate that, with Rhode Island voting on whether to remove “plantation” from the state’s name, Nebraska and Utah voting on whether to remove “slavery” as a punishment from the state constitution, and Mississippi, which became the final state to toss out a confederacy-themed flag, will be voting on whether to make this new design its new state flag. Additionally, Mississippi will also be voting on whether to eradicate an electoral college-like system that they use for statewide elections, which has essentially allowed Republicans to gerrymander statewide races and is, unsurprisingly, a relic of Jim Crow.
- California is wild, as usual: California has the country’s most lax ballot referenda process, which often means voters have to vote on a list of ballot questions longer than a Stephen King novel. To no one’s surprise they’ve got another laundry list style group of ballot questions this year. The most interesting include one about rent control, one about re-allowing affirmative action to be used in higher education and government contracting, a proposition to roll back the state’s sentencing reform law, a similar one about rolling back the state’s cash bail reform law, and a fascinating ballot question about whether to force Uber/Lyft to consider their drivers “employees”. Polling for all these questions is limited, so expect some interesting results.
- Election rule changes (MA, AK, FL): These three states are all looking to tinker with their election process. Florida’s looking to potentially enact a “top two” primary system, like used in California, which seems poised to fall short. Meanwhile, Alaska and Massachusetts are looking to enact Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), like Maine has. RCV seems favored to pass in both states.
- Redistricting Reform (VA, MO): Virginia voters are debating whether to enact an independent redistricting committee in the Commonwealth, which would be a huge save for Republicans, who could otherwise be gerrymandered out of existence by state Democrats. There are no polls for that question. Meanwhile, Missouri passed that sort of commission in 2018, which Republicans don’t like since they’re in charge, so now voters are being asked to repeal that commission. There’s no polling for either question but given that redistricting commissions generally pass when posed as ballot questions at the state level, I would expect Virginia’s question to pass and Missouri’s to fail.
- Puerto Rico Statehood: Puerto Rico voters will again be voting on a largely symbolic, non-binding statehood referendum. But unlike most years this could carry more weight, as there’s a ~70% chance that Democrats could be in total control of government and some prominent ones have pledged to make Puerto Rico a state, if the voters there want it. Polls show that Puerto Rico voters are favored to pass this referendum too, which could loom large next year if this election goes Democrats’ way.
- Minimum wage & labor benefits (CO, FL): This is rather simple. Florida voters are being asked whether to approve a $15 minimum wage, while Colorado voters are being asked whether their state should guarantee paid family & medical leave. The Colorado measure seems likely to pass easily, while the Florida question will probably garner a majority, but it’s murkier whether it will pass that state’s 60% threshold for approval.
- Sex & Reproduction (WA, CO, LA): The state of Washington is voting whether to uphold its mandatory public school sex-ed law which was mentioned briefly two sections up, while Colorado will be voting on a 22-week abortion ban, and Louisiana on whether to declare that there is no right to an abortion in the state constitution. The Washington vote will likely pass, while Colorado seems slightly favored to vote down the abortion ban (although it should be close), and there is no polling on the Louisiana question.
- Taxes (AZ, CO, IL): Arizona is voting on a proposition that would raise income taxes on the highest earners in order to fund education and teacher salaries, Colorado is considering a proposition that would lower their state income tax slightly, and Illinois will ponder enacting a progressive income tax instead of their current flat tax. All three initiatives look poised to pass.
- Environment (AK, CO, NV): The typically pro-oil petro-state of Alaska will be voting to potentially increase taxes on oil companies and Nevada will be voting to hypothetically raise the state’s renewable energy standard to 50% by 2030. There is no polling on either question. Meanwhile my favorite ballot measure of the year comes in Colorado, where voters will decide whether the state should re-introduce the gray wolf to the wild. Isn’t direct democracy fun? For the record, the lone poll (from 2019) shows the measure likely to pass.
Local Level Intrigue
Elections of course, don’t stop at the state or federal level. Plenty of counties and municipalities will be electing new officials as well, and some of those could be particularly important. Major cities like Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Diego, Richmond, and Honolulu could be electing new mayors, and that doesn’t include Portland, which is perhaps the nation’s most-watched mayoral election. The city has been in the national spotlight due to its handling of protests and now incumbent Mayor Ted Wheeler faces a challenge from his left by Sarah Iannarone. Polls are tight in that race. Elsewhere, Miami-Dade County, Florida, could be electing a new County Mayor (a Democrat vs. a Repubican), while Democrats in Oakland County, Michigan, are poised to flip the County Executive office for the first time in decades after the recent death of longtime executive L. Brooks Patterson (R). Similarly, in Maricopa County, AZ, Democrats are attempting to flip the county board in what is the nation’s 4th most populous county. County boards could also flip D in Arapahoe County, CO, San Diego County, CA, and Oklahoma County, OK.
Prosecutors and sheriffs hold the key to criminal justice and racial justice in most jurisdictions across the country and those elections are also worth watching, especially in light of this summer’s protests. Republican Sheriffs are facing close challenges in Pinellas & Brevard Counties, FL, Cobb County, GA, Oakland County, MI, Pima County, AZ, Charleston County, SC, and Tarrant County, TX. Open sheriff races in Fort Bend County, TX, Gwinnett County, GA, and Hamilton County, OH, also bring criminal justice and co-operation with ICE to the forefront. Maricopa County, AZ, may have the most high profile race, where the Democratic Sheriff is facing a challenge from notorious ex-Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s former right-hand man. Additionally, high profile prosecutor races are taking place in a litany of places, from suburban Chicago to the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, to Los Angeles, California. If you want to read more about these races, go to The Appeal: Political Report.
Conclusion
Whew, that does it. We’ve made it. If you read this entire article, you are a champion. I figure if you’re geeky enough to have read all this, you are planning to vote or have already voted, but if you haven’t, go and vote. Then consume a lot of alcohol on election night. Then enjoy the holiday season and de-stress for a few months. Election 2020 is almost here, and thanks to everyone for reading my coverage this cycle.