Hurricane Eta now officially a category 4 is the most dangerous hurricane of 2020, threatening to devastate eastern Nicaragua and then cause catastrophic flooding and land slides in Honduras. Eta is the 29th named storm of 2020, the most named storms in the history of the Atlantic basin, and tied with 2005 which had an unnamed subtropical storm for the most storms on record. It is likely to be the most deadly and destructive storm by far of this extraordinary hurricane season.
Wind speeds were determined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to be 130 mph at 7pm EST. The forecast for landfall in about 12 hours is for an intensity of 150mph, but the satellite signature of the storm shows that it is intensifying at this time more rapidly than forecast. Whether this trend will continue is unclear, but the ocean heat content is increasing as the storm moves towards central America and the wind shear is low, so it looks to me that Eta will be a category 5 at landfall.
If the storm has time to spin up to its present satellite structure with negative 80 degree Celsius cloud tops and a warm clear 5 mile radius pinhole eye the wind speeds would be about 200 miles per hour according to the Advanced Dvorak Technique, an automated way of estimating tropical storm intensity. Eta is expected to make landfall in Nicaragua early tomorrow morning and may have the time to become a strong category 5. The storm has been intensifying as I write this and it now appears to be one of the strongest storms on record in the Atlantic basin if the surface winds reach steady state with the satellite signature. We can hope that this storm makes landfall in an unpopulated area because the winds and storm surge will be devastating.
After Eta makes landfall the winds will rapidly weaken but the rains will continue to fall at a very rapid rate as Eta moves slowly across the mountains and hills of Nicaragua and Honduras. Moisture will be pulled in from both the Caribbean sea and Pacific ocean, converging over central America. In a situation similar to this one hurricane Mitch caused a deluge of up to fifty inches of rain — well over a meter of rain. The death and destruction caused by Mitch was considerably worse than was caused by hurricane Katrina. Towns and villages were washed away by floods and covered by landslides. This storm, Eta, has a similar intensity, track and slow movement.
Hurricane Mitch is the second-deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, causing over 11,000 fatalities in Central America in 1998, including approximately 7,000 in Honduras and 3,800 in Nicaragua due to catastrophic flooding from the slow motion of the storm. It was the deadliest hurricane in Central American history, surpassing Hurricane Fifi–Orlene, which killed slightly fewer people there in 1974. en.wikipedia.org/...
We don’t know the precise intensity of Eta because 2 airplanes that were going to investigate the storm had technical problems according to hurricane researcher Dr. Levi Cowan who posted a video at Tropicaltidbits.com. An airplane is en route now to investigate the storm.
The underlying cause of this situation is the record high heat content of the north Atlantic ocean this year which in turn is caused by the ever increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere because of human activities. The strongest hurricanes in the north Atlantic basin are getting stronger because the north Atlantic ocean is taking up more heat for its area than the Pacific ocean. This year’s La Niña has added to that imbalance and increased the number of tropical storms in the Atlantic this year while reducing the number of Pacific tropical storms.
A hurricane hunter plane has made a first pass through the storm. The peak radar winds are rain contaminated but the winds at the flight level are about 140 knots or 165 mph. Typically the NHC would estimate surface wind speeds of about 130 knots, or 150mph for this situation. That’s what the NHC just reported at 9:52 pm. Those are precisely the wind speeds forecast for landfall tomorrow morning. The storm is intensifying more rapidly than forecast at 4pm and will likely be a solid category 5 at landfall in my opinion. The NHC just reported at 9:52pm that the central pressure is 927mb. The central pressure has been falling rapidly. Eta is at the top of the category 4 range, about 5mph below a category 5.
Update 10pm EST
The NHC has upgraded it forecast landfall wind strength to 160mph, category 5 winds. They report that an eyewall replacement cycle may be beginning so there is hope that intensification will stop soon, preventing ETA from becoming one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.
2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.
3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.